To be honest, there has been a lot of good news about the property market recently, which makes me feel that the property market has begun to pick up again. Since February 5, the central bank's governor has made it clear that he will reduce the bank's statutory reserves by 0.5 percentage points; Subsequently, Document No. 25 announced the "support for agriculture" and "rediscounting" interest rate cuts by 025 percentage points of news;
At the same time, the bank will also establish a credit marketing department. Why start a new department? Feng Yu only needs to supervise to see if they can lend money as scheduled. This is forcing banks to come up with more money for developers who need loans.
This series of actions feels like saying, you are in a hurry. Indeed, the property market seems to have entered a very rapid period, you can't get out, I can only keep increasing the "dosage".
You must know that a normal interest rate cut, or an interest rate hike, will be announced, and there will be **. And this time, it was actually announced twelve days ago. I think it can be summed up in four words: speed up lending, the above attaches great importance to it, and you can see the effect in the short term!
Why are you in such a hurry? See recent data.
First of all, the results of the national bidding are very poor, and the funding for ** land is decreasing day by day, which shows how tight the local finances are! According to the released data, this year's land price income is 668 trillion, a decrease of 23% over the same period last year;
In the first 11 months of this year, the national land income reached 4203 trillion, down 20 percent year-on-year5%。
Take Hangzhou, for example, which is the second largest city in the country, with sales of 2,203 in 2022400 million, with a dependence on the local ** of more than 140%.
However, Hangzhou's total land sales were 17.8 billion, and although it is still the second largest city in China, it is 19 percent compared to the same period last year2%。
In addition, Foshan, Nanjing, Wuhan, Guangzhou, Xi'an, Guiyang, Nanning, Changzhou, Zhuhai and Zhuhai all have more than 100% land area.
Because of the land, these cities face similar or even more serious problems than Hangzhou.
Moreover, this time the auction is too outrageous, right?
According to the statistics of the middle finger auction, by the end of 2023, the national auction market has auctioned a total of 79 types of legal auctions60,000 sets, compared to 58 in 202230,000 units, an increase of 367%, the supply side of the foreclosure market has heated up significantly.
In terms of total auction volume, this year's legal auctions** increased by 36 compared to the same period last year7%, and the transaction volume reached 796,000 sets. Of these, there are 389,000 housing units, accounting for 489%。
Compared to 2022, there were 583,000 housing units and 126,000 projects, with a total value of $300.6 billion. In 2022, about 467% of the houses were **, totalling 272,000 units.
By comparison, we can see that the number of houses auctioned this year will increase by 100,000 units compared to 2022.
Many foreclosure houses are speculators, and in good times, they will increase leverage, but when the business conditions deteriorate, they will lose patience and begin to have a pessimistic mood about their future, so they will cut off the loan.
Of course, it was more due to a lack of funds, which led to a loss in business, and finally forced the bank to repossess the building for auction.
In the face of this situation, the state has introduced two measures, and it seems that they intend to promote the development of the property market in the short term. "Grasp with both hands", initially on January 25, Xiao Yuanqi, vice chairman of the Supervision Committee of the People's Bank of China, said at a press conference held by the State Council New Office that real estate is a long chain and involves a wide range of industries, which is related to the lives of the people across the country.
Subsequently, on the morning of January 26, the National Development and Reform Commission convened a national leading group for real estate financing, which clearly proposed to strengthen cooperation with local governments and promote local development and construction.
In just two days, he actually released two "big moves" in a row, which is unprecedented. The first step is to raise enough funds to help real estate developers raise the most needed funds, once you buy a house, you must hurry up and apply, don't wait until the sun rises tomorrow, everyone will feel a glimmer of hope!
Guangzhou because of the release of the land management rights in its hands, in each region has a certain degree of autonomy, according to the specific situation of the region, to formulate corresponding policies, such as Guangzhou, actually stipulates the area of 120 square meters or less, this action, is really a bit too fast.
So, will the property market "take off" in this situation? Should you buy a house in 2024?
In fact, we don't have to worry too much, because every new initiative will have a process, let's see the situation first. After all, the confidence of home buyers still needs to be cultivated, and even if the property market really "takes off", it is unlikely to return to the previous heat.
Although 2022 is a year of many disasters and difficulties, at the end of the year, "houses are not for speculation" was once again put on the table, which also shows that the country hopes that the property market will return to stability.
Reducing mortgage interest rates and increasing affordable housing is to let people buy houses, housing prices have no room to rise, and only a few good houses are likely to continue to rise in the future, and this difference will inevitably gradually widen.