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Yang Ma released important data.
At the end of January, the balance of broad money (M2) was 29763 trillion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 87%。The balance of narrow money (m1) is 6942 trillion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 59%。Currency in circulation (m0) balance 1214 trillion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 59%。The net cash injection in the month was 795.4 billion yuan.
Among them, the data I pay the most attention to is the domestic M2 data, and the broad currency has approached the 300 trillion integer mark.
With so much money going to **, does it raise the risk of inflation? What kind of opportunities will this amount of money bring us?
I would like to talk to you today about this topic of "money".
First of all, the essence of the flow of M2 is debt, that is, every penny has a corresponding debt.
Money doesn't come out of nowhere, there must be an anchor behind it.
When we look at M2, we should not only look at how much currency is issued, but also look at the structure of M2.
In particular, the similarities and differences between the two major powers, China and the United States, can we better understand the meaning behind the 297 trillion yuan.
M2 is the addition of quasi-currency on the basis of M1, such as unit time deposits, savings deposits, ** margin and other deposits.
The biggest difference between China and the United States M2 is that the United States excludes fixed deposits of more than $100,000 and puts them in M3.
This has an impact, but if you work backwards, you will find that the impact is not so great as to change the trend.
For example, in 2020, domestic M2 exceeded 33 trillion US dollars, while the United States was 19 trillion US dollars in the same period; Among them, domestic corporate fixed deposits accounted for more than 17% of M2, almost 38 trillion yuan.
Corporate deposits, most of which should be above $100,000; Therefore, we can remove this part of the funds from the domestic M2, which can unify the M2 caliber of the two countries to a certain extent.
As for the deposits of high-net-worth clients, they will be ignored here, and no further breakdown will be carried out.
As a result of this calculation, the domestic m2 is 276 trillion dollars, which is still 8 more than the United States$5 trillion; At that time 6The average exchange rate of 45 is calculated, and the gap is almost more than 500,000 yuanTherefore, the difference in M2 statistical caliber between China and the United States can only explain a small part of the reason.
What's more?
This is because the domestic financing is mainly indirect.
When many people see this, they will immediately think that we can't do direct financing, and we should vigorously develop first-class financing and increase listing, etc., and it is easy to enter another misunderstanding.
In fact, the amount of financing in the domestic secondary market is actually similar to that of the United States, or even higher than that of the United States.
According to Deloitte's report, the amount of A-share IPO proceeds in 2023 is expected to be 2.2% of that of U.S. stocks2 times. A-shares have once again become the world's largest fundraising market.
The Shanghai and Shenzhen stock exchanges are the world's two largest IPO exchanges, with the Nasdaq and NYSE being the third and fourth largest exchanges in the world.
However, there is a serious shortage of equity investment in the domestic primary market.
According to Huachuang data, in the first three quarters of 2023, China's primary market institutions (early-stage VC PE) invested 507.1 billion yuan, while the United States invested 5,294.5 billion yuan.
The domestic equity market is less than one-tenth of that of the United States.
In addition, the size of the domestic bond market is not as large as that of the US stock market.
For example, data shows that in 2021, the scale of U.S. corporate bonds exceeded 15 trillion U.S. dollars, which was converted into nearly 10 billion yuan at the current exchange rate.
At that time, the scale of domestic bonds was almost 62 trillion yuan, including national bonds, local bonds, interbank bonds, exchange bonds, financial bonds, etc.
At this point, we can see it.
The overall level of domestic direct financing is indeed not as good as that of the United States, but the direct financing of the secondary market is still very strong.
It's just that the equity financing market in the primary market is too small, and the bond market also has room for improvement.
Therefore, the development of direct financing should focus on the development of the equity market and the bond market, rather than the secondary market!
Otherwise, companies that should have relied on equity financing and bond financing will eventually be forced to turn to indirect financing.
This will make the snowball of M2 bigger and bigger, and the more currencies will be derived.
The structure of domestic M2 is mainly based on indirect financing, and a large amount of money is derived with banks as intermediaries.
Behind the high bank financing is the high turnover and high money multiplier.
To put it simply, I bought land, took the money from the mortgage and didn't need it for a short time, and deposited it in the bank; Then the bank lends the money out again.
To whom did you lend it? 
Whoever has high leverage is who the bank lends more! It is the main flow of M2!
According to wind 2023 data, the leverage ratio of the domestic ** sector is more than 60%, and the United States is more than 110%; The leverage ratio for domestic residents is more than 60%, and in the United States it is more than 70%.
It is worth noting that the leverage ratio of the domestic non-financial sector is more than 160%, but the US is more than 70%.
In 2023, the debt of the domestic non-financial sector, that is, the real sector, will reach more than 200 trillion yuan, the local government will be more than 60 trillion yuan, the real estate sector will be more than 90 trillion yuan, and the rest will be the debt of general entities.
Therefore, we see that most of M2 actually flows to urban investment and real estate, and their high debt is like a huge black hole, swallowing up a lot of funds.
They're so big now that no matter how much money they throw into it, it's like a rock thrown into a pool, and they can't make a big wave.
Therefore, the opportunities in the above fields and industries will be relatively limited.
Money is always flowing, and if there are fewer opportunities here, there must be more opportunities in another field!
Be**? Consume! There is still great potential for residents' consumption.
Let's look at the data. China's GDP will grow by 5 in 20232%, with a total of 126 trillion yuan. Among them, the amount of consumption of more than 40 trillion yuan, an increase of more than 7 points, and the amount of investment is more than 4 billion, an increase of more than 3 points.
One outperforms GDP, one underperforms.
So the conclusion is that M2 has flowed to urban investment and infrastructure in the past few decades, but they are close to the ceiling.
In the coming decades, M2 will inevitably flow to the consumer sector.
If consumption is strong, the economy will be strong!
Finally, I also wish you all a happy new year 2024, a more wealth and more consumption in the new year!
**10,000 Fans Incentive Plan