Recently, the People's Bank of China (PBOC) released the 2023 Statistical Report on Loan Investment of Financial Institutions (hereinafter referred to as the "Report"). According to the data, at the end of 2023, the balance of RMB loans of financial institutions was 23759 trillion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 106%, and RMB loans increased by 2275 trillion yuan.
Loan investment is one of the "weather vanes" for observing economic development, and it is a clear signal for monetary policy to carry out macroeconomic regulation and control. Where did the money go? What changes have taken place in the credit structure? In 2024, what industries will the funds with a keen sense of smell flow to?
Southern ** reporter Zhou Meilin.
Medium and long-term loans flowed into the manufacturing sector.
and infrastructure construction trends are obvious.
In terms of total volume, the report shows that at the end of 2023, the balance of RMB loans of financial institutions will be 23759 trillion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 106%；Renminbi loans increased by 2275 trillion yuan, an increase of 1 year-on-year31 trillion yuan.
Dong Ximiao, chief researcher of Zhaolian, pointed out that the increase in the scale of credit shows that the financing demand of China's real economy is recovering, and the financial support to serve the real economy has been further strengthened, creating a suitable monetary and financial environment for the sustained overall improvement of the economy.
From the perspective of the "public" and "private" flow of credit, the report shows that at the end of 2023, the balance of loans to enterprises and institutions in domestic and foreign currencies was 15707 trillion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 127%；The balance of household loans in domestic and foreign currencies was 801 trillion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 57%。Overall, corporate loans accounted for about 66 per cent of the loan balance.
In terms of the new part, the increase in loans to enterprises and institutions throughout the year was 1772 trillion yuan, accounting for nearly 78% of the new loans for the year.
Dong Ximiao pointed out that from the perspective of the composition of growth, the increase in loans to enterprises and institutions is the main contributor to credit growth, and household loans and loans to enterprises and institutions in 2023 will show a "28" phenomenon. This means that under the promotion of policies, the financing demand of enterprises and institutions has recovered quickly.
Among the loans to enterprises and institutions, medium and long-term loans increased significantly, increasing by 1351 trillion yuan, accounting for 76% of the increase in loans to enterprises and institutions.
Industry insiders pointed out that generally speaking, short-term loans for enterprises are mainly used for capital turnover, and medium and long-term loans are mostly used for capital expenditure.
According to the report, in 2023, the balance of short-term loans and bill financing increased by 412 trillion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 155 trillion yuan. The balance of medium and long-term loans increased by 13 for the year51 trillion yuan, an increase of 2 percent year-on-year46 trillion yuan, the balance of medium and long-term loans increased significantly, indicating that the stability of financing of enterprises and institutions is constantly improving.
In terms of different industries, medium- and long-term loans to industry, services and infrastructure maintained a relatively high growth rate, and the inflow of medium- and long-term loans into manufacturing and infrastructure construction showed a clear trend.
The manufacturing industry is the main body of the national economy, and the regulatory authorities have clearly proposed to "increase the proportion of manufacturing loans". Specifically, the balance of medium and long-term loans for heavy industry in 2023 will be 1862 trillion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 28%; The balance of medium and long-term loans for light industry is 32 trillion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 279%。
In terms of new credit growth in various provinces and cities, Jiangsu took the lead. According to data released by the Jiangsu Branch of the People's Bank of China, in 2023, various loans in Jiangsu Province will increase by 293 trillion yuan, an increase of 283.4 billion yuan year-on-year.
Guangdong is not far behind. According to data from the Guangdong branch of the People's Bank of China, as of the end of 2023, the balance of domestic and foreign currency loans in Guangdong was 272 trillion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 96%, an increase of 2 from the beginning of the year4 trillion yuan.
The loan structure continued to be optimized.
Funds poured into the field of science and technology.
The first financial work conference held in 2023 emphasized the need to "effectively strengthen high-quality financial services for major strategies, key areas and weak links" and "do a good job in science and technology finance, green finance, inclusive finance, pension finance, and digital finance". According to the information disclosed in the report, China's loan structure is continuously optimized, and the efficiency of financial resource allocation continues to improve.
In terms of sub-sectors, the year-on-year growth rates of inclusive financial loans, green loans, and agriculture-related loans reached9%, "specialized, special and new", and the growth rate of loans to small and medium-sized enterprises in science and technology were 186% and 219%, much higher than the average growth rate of various loans.
The rapid growth of green loans is a major bright spot, and the balance of loans for green infrastructure upgrading industries, clean energy industries, and energy conservation and environmental protection industries continues to rise. At the end of 2023, the balance of green loans in local and foreign currencies was 3008 trillion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 365%, which is higher than the growth rate of various loans by 264 percentage points.
It is worth noting that credit is pouring into the field of science and technology innovation to help cultivate new quality productivity. At the recent press conference of the National Press Office, the relevant person in charge of the State Administration of Financial Supervision introduced that by the end of 2023, the balance of loans to high-tech enterprises nationwide increased by 20% year-on-year2%, of which medium and long-term loans and credit loans accounted for more than 40%.
In terms of policy support for science and technology finance, the notice issued by the State Administration of Financial Supervision in January on strengthening the financial services of the whole life cycle of science and technology enterprises also specifically mentioned that "the tolerance of non-performing loans of small and micro technology enterprises can be increased by no more than 3 percentage points compared with the non-performing rate of various loans", and pointed out that it is necessary to enrich the financing models for science and technology enterprises, including mortgage guarantees, intellectual property pledge financing, etc.
This is also evidenced by the data published in some regions, taking Guangdong as an example, the data released by the Guangdong branch of the People's Bank of China shows that the balance of loans to high-tech enterprises under its jurisdiction at the end of 2023 is 22 trillion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 224%；The balance of loans to small and medium-sized technology-based enterprises was 322.7 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 231%。
As of the end of November 2023, the balance of loans to high-tech enterprises and technology-based small and medium-sized enterprises in Shenzhen has increased year-on-year1%, which is also higher than the growth rate of various loans in the same period by 245 and 177 percentage points.
Personal housing loan balances declined.
Credit anchors the "five big articles".
Among all loan flows, housing-related loans (including loans for the real estate industry and personal housing loans) have historically attracted much attention. In the past year, the growth rate of real estate development loans has slowed down, and the balance of personal housing loans has shown negative growth.
According to the report, as of the end of 2023, the balance of real estate loans was 5263 trillion yuan, down 1% year-on-year, and the growth rate was 2 lower than that at the end of the previous year5 percentage points.
Among them, the balance of real estate development loans is 1288 trillion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 15%；Personal housing loan balance 3817 trillion yuan, down 16%, the growth rate was 2 lower than the end of the previous year8 percentage points.
China's personal housing loan balance has experienced a long period of rapid growth, but this growth trend has begun to decline significantly in recent years, and the growth rate of personal housing loans fell to 12%。At the end of 2023, the balance of personal housing loans decreased by 16%。
Among the provinces that have disclosed data, many provinces have seen a decline in the balance of personal housing loans. At the end of 2023, the balance of residents' personal housing loans in the jurisdiction of the Guangdong branch of the People's Bank of China decreased by 2 percent year-on-year5%。
At the policy level, we are continuing to support the steady and healthy development of the real estate market. Zhou Maohua, a macro researcher at the financial market department of Everbright Bank, said that a series of policies have been introduced, such as 16 financial support for real estate, a dynamic adjustment mechanism for the interest rate of the first home loan, and an adjustment of the interest rate of the existing housing loan. As the economy continues to recover and the cost and threshold of buying a property are lowered, it is expected to promote the real estate market as a whole to get out of the downturn and gradually restore balance.
In terms of loans to the residential sector, although the scale of personal housing loans has shrunk, the report shows that household consumer loans and household operating loans have achieved rapid growth.
At the end of 2023, the balance of household consumption loans (excluding personal housing loans) in domestic and foreign currencies was 1977 trillion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 94%；An increase of 1 for the year75 trillion yuan. The balance of household operating loans was 2215 trillion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 172%；An increase of 3 for the year23 trillion yuan.
In terms of actively promoting the development of consumer credit business, the State Administration of Financial Supervision recently said in its reply to the proposal on "developing consumer finance to expand domestic demand" that since 2023, the interest rate of commercial banks' personal consumption loans has generally been at a low level. Dong Ximiao pointed out that there is a certain basis for lowering the interest rate of personal consumption loans, and suggested that more effective policies should be adopted to stimulate potential consumption and accelerate the development of consumer finance.
Looking ahead to 2024, how is credit expected to be disbursed? Wen Bin, chief economist of China Minsheng Bank, said that in 2024, financial institutions will continue to ensure the rational provision of credit, ensure the sustainable and rapid growth of social financing throughout the year, promote the recovery of low prices, and support the sustainable and benign development of the real economy.
In January, the People's Bank of China announced that it would set up a credit market department, focusing on the "five major articles" of science and technology finance, green finance, inclusive finance, pension finance and digital finance. Xuan Changneng, deputy governor of the People's Bank of China, pointed out at a recent press conference held by the State Council Information Office that regarding the credit situation in 2024, it is expected that credit growth will continue to be relatively rapid in the first quarter of this year.
Medium- and long-term loans for key infrastructure projects are also expected to be further increased. The relevant person in charge of the China Development Bank said that it will increase medium and long-term loans for key infrastructure projects. Actively support five major infrastructure construction areas, such as transportation, energy, and water conservancy, industrial upgrading infrastructure such as information, science and technology, and logistics, urban infrastructure, agricultural and rural infrastructure, and high-quality infrastructure, to help expand domestic demand and profitable investment.