In the first 10 days of the new year, Beijing, Shanghai and Guangzhou took turns to stage the first round of local auctions of the new year.
According to the statistics of Blue Whale Finance, the above three first-tier cities originally planned to sell 8 parcels of land, but in the end, 3 transactions reached the top at the premium, 3 transactions were completed at the reserve price, and 2 were unsold.
Among them, on January 10, Shanghai launched two residential land plots located in Sheshan and Sijing sectors of Songjiang District, which attracted fierce competition between China Resources Land and China Merchants Shekou, and reached the upper limit of land price of 52 after 56 rounds of biddingAfter 5.1 billion, entering the competition for high-quality construction indicators, the two real estate companies accepted the two-star and ultra-low energy consumption building indicators of green buildings, as well as the proportion of 7% of public rental housing and entered the lottery link, and finally won by China Merchants Shekou, with a transaction floor price of 17,634 yuan square meters and a premium rate of 933%；In another case of Sheshan plate, because only one bidder from Xiamen International Trade signed up, the reserve price was sold.
Earlier, on January 4, Beijing took the lead in launching 4 residential lands, among them, China Construction Xinhe and Jingneng respectively topped out two parcels of land in Dawayao, Lugouqiao Street, Fengtai District, at a premium rate of 15%; China Construction Yipin and Beijing Urban Construction both acquired the land plots of Yangfang Village in Fengtai District and the land plots of Gongchen Street in Fangshan District at the reserve price.
Guan Rongxue, a senior analyst at Zhuge Data Research Center, believes that compared with the fierce scene of 22 real estate companies in Fengtai Dahongmen competing for one parcel of land before New Year's Day, the first land auction in Beijing at the beginning of the year is relatively deserted.
The hot and cold differentiation between plots and cities is still obvious, and the plots with not extremely superior conditions are still difficult to win the favor of real estate companies. Guan Rongxue said.
Different from the premium transactions in the above two first-tier cities, on January 9, Guangzhou launched one residential land in Tianhe District and Baiyun District, which were originally planned to be auctioned at the end of 2023, with a total starting price of 580.2 billion yuan, but in the end, "the teacher was unfavorable", and all ended in unsuccessful auctions.
Xiao Wenxiao, chief analyst of CRIC Guangfo region, believes that although the two unsold land plots in Guangzhou have their own drawbacks, on the whole, the developer's income and more cautious than before may be the main reason for the unsold land.
In fact, judging from the situation of the first round of participating enterprises in first-tier cities, a total of 17 real estate companies have been attracted to participate in the 8 parcels of land, which are still dominated by central state-owned enterprises, which continues the trend of land auctions in the previous year. The low temperature start of the land also reflects that the investment of real estate enterprises is more cautious and rational.
Chen Wenjing, director of market research at the China Index Research Institute, believes that under the fact that the real estate market has not yet stabilized, the financial pressure on small and medium-sized real estate enterprises is still there, and it will be more difficult to obtain high-quality land plots, and the financial advantages of central state-owned enterprises are more obvious.
According to the statistics of the China Index, in 2023, the proportion of land acquired by central state-owned enterprises in first-tier cities will be more than 60%, of which Beijing and Shenzhen central state-owned enterprises will account for nearly 80%. Looking at the whole country, in 2023, central state-owned enterprises and local state-owned assets will also be the main force in land acquisition, and among the top 100 enterprises in land acquisition, the number and amount of central state-owned enterprises and local state-owned assets will account for about 80%, among which Poly Development, China Shipping, China Resources, C&D, China Merchants Shekou, China Railway Construction, Yuexiu, Huafa and other central state-owned enterprises will rank among the top 10 in terms of land acquisition.
On the other hand, other private real estate companies, according to CRIC data, in the first 11 months of 2023, nearly half of the top 100 real estate companies in sales did not acquire land.
At the same time, the concentration of new value of real estate enterprises is increasing significantly, of which the new value of TOP10 real estate enterprises accounts for 64%, the new value of TOP11-20 real estate enterprises accounts for 19%, and the total new value of TOP20 real estate enterprises accounts for more than 80%, while the proportion of new value of other echelons decreases accordingly, and the future market pattern will continue to differentiate.
There is a weak heart. The relevant person in charge of a brand private real estate enterprise told Blue Whale Finance that sales are not smooth, it is difficult to collect money, and the top priority at present is still to ensure the delivery of the building.
Longfor Group, which has acquired a total of 31 land parcels in 2023, has not yet participated in the land market in early 2024.
Looking forward to the whole year, Guan Rongxue said, "In 2024, the overall heat of the land market may rebound on the basis of the previous year, and the comprehensive performance of core first- and second-tier cities may still outperform other cities." ”
Based on the continued low temperature trend of the land market at the beginning of the year and the overall heat is lower than expected, Chen Wenjing said that in the future, it is not ruled out that the land auction rules in first-tier cities will be adjusted according to market changes, such as canceling or raising the upper limit of the premium rate in some areas.