The Spring Festival holiday has come to an end, and the migrant workers must have packed their bags and prepared to start work. I don't know if the warmth of reuniting with your family has ** everyone's hearts have been broken by the big A since 2024, calculate the time, tomorrow is the first trading day of the Year of the Dragon in A shares, can the big A continue the strength of the 3 days before the holiday, and give the shareholders a start profit?
Calendar yearsThe first trading day after the A-share holidayHigh probability
Hai Wenjun does not have a clairvoyance to ** A shares tomorrow trend, here is a list of the rise and fall of the first trading day after the Spring Festival in the past few years, I hope to help you who are eager to start the new year, but like **, past experience can not determine the future trend, you still have to look at it rationally.
Wind data shows that in the first trading day after the Spring Festival in the last 10 years, the Shanghai Composite Index has 6 times**, with a probability of 60%, and the Shenzhen Component Index has risen and fallen in half. From the perspective of the rise and fall, except for the first trading day after the Spring Festival holiday in 2020 (epidemic), the rest of the years are basically the largest amplitude, and the largest amplitude.
Source: wind
In addition, according to the lunar calendar, this year is the third year of the dragon on the A** field, and in history, the first two dragon years of A-shares have shown a ** trend.
The first Year of the Dragon was from February 5, 2000 to January 23, 2001, during which the Shanghai Composite Index rose by 3457%, and the Shenzhen Component Index rose 20%.
The second Year of the Dragon was from January 23, 2012 to February 9, 2013, during which the Shanghai Composite Index rose by 488%, the Shenzhen Component Index rose 552%。
Hopefully you will have good luck in the third Year of the Dragon.
Global stock indexes for the Spring FestivalThe performance was stable during the period
During the Spring Festival, in addition to the domestic synchronous vacation, the rest of the world is not idle, continue to toss and turn between the ups and downs, in the current economic globalization, the world's stock indexes breathe the same fate, let's take a look at the trend of the major ** during this period in addition to A shares.
Looking back at the performance of the global market during the market break, from February 10 to February 17, the overseas market as a whole continued to be the first or the first trend, the Asia-Pacific ** performance was better than that of Europe and the United States as a whole, and the major stock indexes of the United States showed a trend after continuing to rise.
Specifically, according to wind data, as of February 17**, among the world's major stock indexes, the Nikkei 225 Index, the Hang Seng Index and the FTSE Singapore Straits Index rose respectively during the period. 67%, and the KOSPI rose by 109%；The British FTSE 100 index, the French CAC40 index, and the German DAX index rose during the period. 13%；The S&P 500, Nasdaq and Dow Jones Industrial Average are each the same11。
Source: wind
It is worth noting that the CPI announced by the United States on February 13 and the PPI growth rate announced on February 16 were both higher than expected.
Today, A-share related topics rushed to the hot search, and shareholders can't wait to welcome the "good start". During the long holiday, Chinese assets rose sharply across the board, and the Nasdaq China Golden Dragon Index rose 570%。In Hong Kong, the Hang Seng Index during the Spring Festival holiday is 291%。Most of Hang Seng's 24 secondary sectors closed higher. In addition, the FTSE China A50 Index** also performed strongly during the Chinese New Year holiday. On February 16, FTSE China A50** rose 135%, and hit a new high in more than two months.
Professionals are optimistic about A-shares
In the face of a complex market, let's listen to the views of professionals, such as managers, analysts, and chairmen of listed companies.
Yu Guang of Invesco Great Wall** believes that in the case of extreme valuation, low trading sentiment and the gradual accumulation of positive factors, there is no need to be overly pessimistic, and the overall opportunities of A-shares outweigh the risks.
Zhai Xiangdong said that whether it is the absolute valuation level, or the comparison of A-shares' own history, stock-bond price, and Chinese and foreign equity assets, the current A** field is at the bottom of the once-in-a-few years, and for investors with a long investment period, the current A-shares are more cost-effective. In addition, there are many high-quality companies in the Hong Kong market that are not listed on A-shares, and most of them have lower valuations than A-shares. For high-quality companies in the fields of Hong Kong-listed innovative drugs, Internet, and emerging consumption, it is believed that they are more attractive at this stage.
Fan Jituo, chief analyst of Cinda ** strategy, proposed that considering the position of valuation and inventory cycle, A-shares may verify the improvement of real estate sales and the first quarter report of listed companies from March to April, and the probability of quarterly or even reversal is very high.
Dan Bin, chairman of Oriental Harbor, also expressed his views on Weibo, full of confidence in the good start: "Hong Kong stocks have risen sharply, and it is estimated that A shares will also have a good start on Monday!" ”
How do you think A-shares will go tomorrow? Feel free to chat with us in the comment section.
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