The wave of science and technology continues.
However, we seem to be far underestimating the progress and value of humanoid robots.
On February 24, Tesla unveiled the latest ** of its humanoid robot Optimus, demonstrating its extremely smooth motion performance, which is also an upgrade of its third performance iteration in 2024, and also indicates that the acceleration of commercialization is approaching.
Not so long ago, humanoid robot startup Figure AI got its hands on 6A new round of financing of $7.5 billion, led by technology giants such as Nvidia, Microsoft, Amazon, Intel, and OpenAI, of which Nvidia and Amazon each invested $50 million.
Tech giants have entered the game of humanoid robots, which shows that their future value seems to be far underestimated.
So, why did the giants enter the market at this point in time?
Industrial robots have been around for decades, but they are simply dealing with repetitive mechanical movements.
What we now call humanoid robots have the same flexibility and thoughtful thinking ability as humans, which involves the field of artificial intelligence.
Since 2023, there have been breakthroughs in AI artificial intelligence, and various large models such as iFLYTEK, Wondershare Technology, Kingsoft Office, and Kunlun Wanwei have certain word processing and thinking capabilities, but they are not enough to cope with the complex visual environment of humanoid robots.
At the beginning of 2024, OpenAI launched a blockbuster SORA model, which has made a qualitative leap in the processing of text to ** images, which greatly meets the urgent needs of humanoid robots and promotes its accelerated landing.
It can be said that at present, humanoid robots are relatively mature in technology from both the manufacturing side and the software side, and the commercialization is imminent, and 2024 is expected to usher in the first year of large-scale commercialization.
The data shows that due to the great demand for humanoid robots in pension, medical care, manufacturing, education, etc., according to the ** global humanoid robot market size is expected to exceed 30 billion US dollars in 2032, with a compound annual growth rate of more than 70%, replicating the outbreak path of new energy vehicles.
So, where is the bottleneck of the current mass production of humanoid robots?
After the AI artificial intelligence technology is solved, the current bottleneck of humanoid robots is at the manufacturing end, because its technical requirements for core components such as motors, reducers, sensors, and ball screws are very high, and there are few companies in the market that can do it, which makes it difficult to scale.
And these core components are not only used in robots, but also in high-end manufacturing fields such as new energy, high-end equipment, and semiconductors. In order to realize the core components, the industrial machine is the key, so the recent attention to the industrial machine is extremely high, such as East China CNC, Huazhong CNC, Haitian Precision, Qinchuan Machine Tool and other leading advantages.
For Tesla robots, the core component that can complete the complex movement of joints is the lead screw product, and the ball screw is the highest proportion of its cost, accounting for about 23%, and it is also one of the components with the highest technical barriers, and it has also become a key component that restricts the volume of robots.
So, what is a ball screw?
If the robot wants to complete a series of actions, it finally needs a screw actuator to complete it, which converts the rotary motion into linear motion, and the screw actuator is divided into a rolling screw pair and a planetary rolling screw pair.
Among them, there are three main components of the ball screw, which are the ball screw, the ball nut and the ball.
Compared with the roller screw pair, the planetary roller screw pair can withstand greater impact and load, with higher accuracy and faster speed, which is the place with the highest technical barrier in the lead screw.
So, where is the core increment of the ball screw**?
Since the ball screw is the core component of high-end manufacturing, the demand has increased significantly in recent years, and China has become the core demand. Data shows that from 2016 to 2021, the global ball screw market size increased from 13$100 million has grown significantly to $17$500 million.
In the future, the increase in ball screws will mainly come from two aspects.
One is the explosion of demand for humanoid robots, the data shows that Tesla's Optimus humanoid robot uses about 14 planetary roller screws, and UBTECH, Xiaomi and other robots will not be less, which corresponds to a new geometric incremental space.
One is stock maintenance, the ball screw as the core component, is also a high consumable, the life span will last 3 to 5 years, according to the work intensity and environment, basically need to be replaced once a year, which greatly increases the increment of replacement.
Therefore, under the huge demand, it is expected that the global ball screw market will grow to $13.8 billion by 2028, with a compound annual growth rate of more than 50%, and the scale will exceed $40 billion by 2030.
So, under the strong demand, what is the competitive landscape of domestic enterprises?
Because ball screws are precision components, which require extremely strict grinding and cold rolling processes, and extremely high precision requirements, the current market is mainly monopolized by overseas companies.
In China's high-end ball screw market, Japanese and European companies occupy 90% of the monopoly share, especially in the highest-end planetary roller screw market, which is occupied by Rollvis (Switzerland), GSA (Switzerland), Rexroth (Germany) and other enterprises.
However, domestic companies have also begun to emerge, such as Best.
Best is mainly engaged in auto parts, and is already a leader in turbocharged parts, customers include Garrett, Cummins, Boma Technology, etc.
In 2022, the company will transform into new energy in a timely manner, creating a second growth curve, and the company's new energy auto parts have covered the mainstream technology routes of pure electric and hybrid vehicles. At present, auto parts revenue accounts for more than 90%.
The company's development is basically the same as that of Tuopu Group, Sanhua Intelligent Control, Yinlun Co., Ltd., and Xusheng Group.
Although the company is not large, its performance growth rate and profitability are very strong.
According to the financial report data, the company's revenue increased from 67.1 billion grew to 109.7 billion, with a compound annual growth rate of 1033%。Net profit also increased from 1400 million grew to 22.9 billion, with a compound annual growth rate of more than 10%.
What's even better is that as a supporting manufacturing industry, Best's gross profit margin is as high as about 40%, and the net profit margin is an astonishing 20%, which is extremely rare in the manufacturing industry. Such a net profit margin not only far exceeds BYD, CATL, Tuopu Group and other peers, but also far exceeds Tongrentang, Dong'e Ejiao, Gree Electric and other leaders.
In 2022, Best will set up a wholly-owned subsidiary, Yuhua Precision Machinery, to lay out the ball screw businessIt has introduced about 300 sets of imported equipment, and it is also the only A-share enterprise with large-scale reserve of lead screw equipment.
In the first half of 2023, Yuhua Precision Machinery will complete the production line of high-precision ball screw pairs, linear guide pairs and other products, and is expected to usher in batch delivery in 2024, creating the third growth curve, and is expected to usher in the Davis double click of performance and valuation.
Similarly, in the field of lead screws, there is also a neglected faucet, which is Hengli Hydraulics, which makes hydraulic cylinders.
As early as 2021, the company has carried out a fixed increase project of 5 billion, one of which is a linear drive project, which is planned to be invested in 1040,000 standard roller screw electric cylinders, 750 planetary roller screw electric cylinders, etc.
Electrification and ball screws, the layout of Hengli Hydraulics is not advanced.
As the most valuable core component in robots, ball screws are also the core components of industrial machine tools, new energy and other fields, and the demand is ushering in explosive growth.
Due to the strong technical barriers, scarcity advantages such as Best are more obvious, and domestic substitution is worth looking forward to.
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**: Flying Whale Investment Research