Chao News reporter Tu Chenxin.
On February 4, local time, after the TV debate of ** candidates, (from left to right) Anies and Muhaimin, Prabowo and Gibran, Pranovo and Marford sang the national anthem on stage. Source: Visual China.
According to a report by Xinhua News Agency on the evening of the 14th, a number of polling agencies in Indonesia quickly counted votes and statistics showed that the current Minister of Defense Prabowo Subianto partnered with Jibran Rakabmin Raka, the eldest son of Jokowi and the current mayor of Solo City, to win the election of president and vice. The incumbent Joko Widodo will step down after 10 years in power.
This ** is the first major event of the 2024 global election year in Asia, and Indonesia's ** and vice-president**, parliament, local representative councils, provincial councils, and county and city council elections will be completed in just 6 hours, known as "the world's largest single-day election".
On February 7, in front of the Welcome Monument in Jakarta, staff members were decorating decorations for the Spring Festival of the Year of the Dragon. Photo by Xinhua News Agency reporter Xu Qin.
Indonesia has 2With a population of 7.6 billion, it ranks fourth in the world, behind India, China and the United States, and the number of voters participating in this event is nearly 20.5 billion. Since the implementation of democratic reforms in 1998, Indonesia has held five times**.
Where will Prabowo's and Gibran's victory lead Southeast Asia's largest country? What is the material impact on China-Indonesia bilateral relations? The Chao News reporter interviewed Xu Liping, a researcher at the Institute of Asia-Pacific and Global Strategy of the Chinese Academy of Social Sciences and director of the Center for Southeast Asian Studies.
A woman holds her child to vote at a polling station in Bogor, West Java, Indonesia, on February 14. Source: Visual China.
The priority is to increase economic growth from 5% to 7%.
According to CCTV News, Indonesia holds ** every five years, and the candidates of the president and deputy ** run in pairs. In addition to Prabowo and Gibran (No. 2), the three groups participating in this ** election are former Governor of the Jakarta Capital Region Anies Basvedan and General Chairman of the National Awakening Party Muhaimin Iskander (No. 1 group), former Governor of Central Java Ganjar Pranovo and former Coordinating Minister for Political, Legal and Security Affairs Mohammad Mahfouddin Mahmouddin (No. 3 group).
A total of 18 national and 6 local political parties participated in this year's event. According to a survey conducted by a polling agency in December 2023, the Indonesian Democratic Struggle Party and the Greater Indonesia Movement Party are the "first echelon" with 191% and 182% approval rating; The professional group party is the "second echelon" and has 93% support; The National Awakening Party, the National Democratic Party and the Prosperity Party formed the "third echelon" and won separately. 2% and 6% support; The National Mission Party and the Democratic Party are the "fourth echelon", each with 45% and 44% support. The new Indonesian parliament is likely to be co-led by two nationalist parties, the Democratic Struggle Party and the Greater Indonesia Movement Party, and the power of Islamist parties will decline.
Judging from the results of the three rounds of debates among the candidates and vice-candidates, economic growth, capital relocation, anti-corruption, poverty alleviation, downstream industries, and regional leadership will become important topics of concern for the new candidates. How to increase Indonesia's economic growth rate from 5% to 7%, promote the country into the "fast lane of development", and realize the vision of "2045** Indonesia" is the primary task facing the new country.
A Jakarta-Bandung high-speed rail high-speed EMU (drone**) photographed in Padaralang on September 30, 2023 Xinhua News Agency.
The winning combination will continue Jokowi's governing strategy.
Prabowo-Gibran received more than 55% of the votes, and the overall situation has been decided, and there is basically no possibility of a reversal. Xu Liping told Chao News that according to Indonesia's election law, candidates must get more than 50% of the total votes and at least 20% of the votes in more than half of the provincial-level administrative regions to win. "With the current results, there is no need to launch a second round of voting on June 26. ”
According to Xu Liping, Prabowo, who won the election, is 72 years old, was the son-in-law of the late Suharto in Indonesia, and served as the commander of the special forces during Suharto's administration. His running mate, Giblan, is the eldest son of Jokowi**, who is only 36 years old and is currently the mayor of Solo.
Among the three combinations, Prabowo-Gibran belongs to the 'conservative progressives' and is under the banner of 'continuation', and will continue to implement Jokowi's governing strategy and strive to achieve the goal of 'Indonesia 2045'. They stressed the need to promote self-sufficiency in food, energy, water, the Islamic economy, the digital economy and the 'blue economy', and intend to vigorously develop downstream industries, increase the added value of exports, strengthen infrastructure and human resources, boost creative industries, and promote harmony between man and nature. Xu Liping said that they advocate pursuing a policy of good-neighborliness and friendship, stressing that "1,000 friends are too few and one enemy is too many," and they plan to develop foreign relations with the economy as the core.
In Xu Liping's view, the support forces behind Prabowo-Gibran are dominated by Jokowi's political forces, of which the grassroots masses are the biggest driving force. In addition, there are some political party forces, such as the Professional Bloc Party, Prabowo's own Greater Indonesia Movement Party, the former ** Susilo's Democratic Party, and the National Mission Party, which represents Islam.
Jokowi's governing philosophy is mainly people-centered, vigorously developing infrastructure, promoting economic development, and also focusing on the economy in foreign affairs. As for the extent to which Prabowo can continue Jokowi's policy, Xu Liping believes that some big projects such as the relocation of the capital and some infrastructure construction projects should be continued. "But since Prabowo is a soldier, he should have his own style of governance, and it is unlikely that he will follow Jokowi's governing style exactly. ”
Supporters of Prabowo Gibran receive free eggs after a campaign rally, Jakarta, February 10. Source: Visual China.
How strong is the world's largest single-day election?
On December 30, 2023, the chairman of the Indonesian ** committee, Hashim, publicly stated that "although India and the United States have more registrable voters than Indonesia, Indonesia's ** is the most complex election in the world".
Why did Hashem say that? Xu Liping made an interpretation of this.
First of all, Indonesia's geographical environment makes it difficult to transport ballots. Indonesia is known as the "Land of a Thousand Islands", and there are 170,000 islands, at least 6,000 inhabited. According to Indonesia's electoral law, every resident over the age of 17 has the right to vote, which means that the election committee has to deliver ballots to polling stations in remote areas within the allotted time, which is not an easy task. Coupled with the rainy season in January, it is even more difficult to transport ballots. According to information released by the Indonesia** Commission, ballots in some areas of previous elections were damaged by up to 30% during transportation and needed to be reorganized.
Secondly, the election of "five-in-one" is difficult to organize. "The so-called 'five-in-one' election is to be combined to conduct elections for ** and vice-presidents, the National Assembly, local representative councils, provincial councils, and county and city councils, known as 'the world's largest single-day election'. Xu Liping said that the Indonesian ** committee confirmed that there will be more than 20,000 positions in the competition this time, in addition to one position each of ** and ** vice-president, including 580 seats in the National Assembly, 152 local council seats, 2,372 provincial council seats, and 17,510 county and city council seats. In the parliamentary elections alone, 9,919 candidates are contesting. All ballots were cast in 820,000 polling stations across the country, with polling stations in 38 provinces in China and 128 countries overseas.
Official data shows that nearly 20.5 billion registered voters need to complete the five ballots in six hours from 7 a.m. to 13 p.m. on February 14, and the intensity can be imagined. According to Xu Liping, in order to organize the vote in an orderly manner, the Indonesia** Commission recruited about 5.7 million temporary workers to carry out the election from January 25 to February 25, 2024.
Jokowi stands next to the front of the train before the test run of the Jakarta-Bandung high-speed railway on September 13, 2023. Source: Visual China.
The general trend of friendship and cooperation between China and Indonesia will not be reversed.
China and Indonesia are each other's important neighbors, representatives of large developing countries and emerging economies, and the two countries share common development concepts, common interests, and a vital future and destiny. The synergy between China's Belt and Road Initiative and Indonesia's "Global Maritime Fulcrum" concept has greatly broadened the space for strategic cooperation between the two countries. Chinese enterprises have actively participated in the development of Indonesia's downstream industries, helping to make history in nickel ore smelting and making Indonesia a major stainless steel producer in the world. China is now Indonesia's largest export destination, absorbing 16% of Indonesia's total exports, much higher than major partners such as the United States and Japan.
Xu Liping believes that in terms of China policy, Indonesia's new ** is likely to maintain continuity. Prabowo still has a lot of dealings with China, both sides are familiar with each other, and he has a similar position to Jokowi on some big infrastructure projects. "Indonesia has achieved the opening of the Jakarta-Bandung Railway during Jokowi's tenure, and we can expect new cooperation between China and Indonesia in infrastructure in the future. In addition, Prabowo has a lot of ideas for poverty reduction, and China has a lot of experience in poverty reduction, so there is a lot of room for cooperation between the two sides in this regard. Xu Liping's conclusion is that the general trend of China-Indonesia friendship and cooperation will not be reversed in the future, and the strong foundation of common interests and public support created by the two countries for bilateral relations and the direction of efforts to jointly build a China-Indonesia community with a shared future will be unshakable.
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