On February 18, Wang Chuanfu participated in the provincial high-quality development conference held by Guangdong Province.
This bigwig in the automotive industry is uncharacteristically and explains a lot of sharp points. Wang Chuanfu pointed out that the penetration rate of new energy vehicles will exceed 50% in 2024, and China's auto brands will become more powerful, and also said that exports will be a new direction. In addition, he also emotionally mentioned that without the support of Guangdong Province, BYD would not be where it is today, and BYD will do its best to repay this trust.
Can the penetration rate of new energy vehicles really exceed 50%? Can independent brands break through? Let Kung Fu Motors take you to take a look.
(1) Growth is still accelerating, 50% is not impossible?
After Wang Chuanfu's remarks that the penetration rate of new energy vehicles exceeded 50%, it caused a very big response. After all, the penetration rate of new energy vehicles in China in 2020 is only 58%, compared to 25% by 2020. The target has already been exceeded, which also means that there will be no major policy increases.
In this case, is it really possible for Wang Chuanfu to shout the goal of achieving 50% by 2024? In fact, it is entirely possible.
First of all, let's look at the growth trend, this wave of new energy vehicle penetration broke out in 2021. That is, Tesla Model 3 was produced domestically, and the year BYD Han and Xpeng P7 were launched, it tripled faster than the previous year. This was followed by a nearly doubling in 2022, with a penetration rate approaching 30%.
From this point of view, the growth rate of new energy vehicles in 2023 does not seem to be exaggerated, but by 276% to 357%。But don't forget, 2023 is a year of "desperate struggle" for fuel vehicles. Starting from the unprecedented preferential subsidy for Hubei enterprises + ** in March last year, almost a whole year, all fuel vehicles have been pulled to the "floor price". The joint venture A-class sedan, which used to sell 150,000 yuan, has been pulled to the 100,000 level, and the compact SUV, which sells more than 200,000 yuan, is quickly approaching 150,000 yuan.
Civic, Camry, these popular models, the domestic ** is even lower than the United States. Volkswagen has also been condemned by Germany because it is too cheap in China. From this point of view alone, car companies have indeed given enough sincerity.
Of course, new energy vehicles are also reducing prices, especially at the end of the year, the first battle is even more terrifying, Qiyuan A07 even directly made the C-class new energy car within 140,000. But it has to be said that as the battery is moving closer to 300 yuan, there is still a lot of space.
The most obvious performance in this regard is BYD, whose first shot of the new year pointed to last year's sedan sales champion Qin. The all-new Qin PLUS DM-i does 7Starting from 980,000 yuan, and the entry configuration is not low, automatic parking, remote control, a new generation of car machine, NFC key these functions are available, of course, there is good performance and very low power loss fuel consumption, which is undoubtedly a heavy blow to the joint venture fuel vehicle.
If the rare stalemate in 2023 still failed to stop the growth of the penetration rate of new energy vehicles, the variables in 2024 will undoubtedly increase again. From this point of view, it seems quite possible to break through 50% in 2024.
(2) Forcibly entering a new track, brand opportunities are also coming?
As we all know, betting on new energy vehicles is our national policy. Because on a traditional track, it is too difficult to overtake, so I thought of overtaking in corners.
With the rise of new energy vehicles, the annual market share of domestically produced vehicles in 2023 has reached 52%. This not only means that the domestic auto market pattern has begun to turn around, surpassing joint venture cars in terms of share for the first time, but also shows that the transformation to new energy has begun to bear fruit. But with that, perhaps, our thinking will also change in tandem.
In the past, what domestic cars wanted was two words: "survival". You need to capture as much market share as possible and maintain basic iteration overhead. It is also a compact SUV, the Haval H6 sells for 130,000 and the Tiguan sells for 200,000, it doesn't matter, as long as the domestic car can occupy a place in the market.
But after domestic cars overtook through the new energy track, we saw more possibilities. Now that we're able to do better on this track, there's a reason to go even higher.
During the Spring Festival, the U8 became popular, the reason is that many people have discovered the "wonderful use" of the function of the tank U-turn, that is, to interpret the "nine turns of the door" at the wedding. Many people invite Yangwang U8 to be the wedding car, because they feel domineering enough and "face" enough. The monthly sales of million-level luxury cars in China can also reach several thousand, which was unimaginable before, but now it has been done.
In addition to looking up, the sales of brands such as Wenjie, Equation Leopard, Ideal, and NIO are also good, and they are not lagging behind in the direct confrontation with luxury brands. This is probably what Wang Chuanfu said, electric intelligence has reshaped the pattern of the luxury car market, giving new opportunities for domestic fashion brands to develop the high-end market. For our domestic brands, we must seize this window period and truly establish our position.
(3) Export into a new direction, don't worry about small tricks
In 2023, domestic automobile exports will reach 5.22 million units, with a growth rate of 57%, surpassing Japan to become the world's largest automobile exporter. Chery, Geely, Great Wall, and BYD have all achieved significant export growth, which is why Wang Chuanfu has listed exports as an important direction in 2024.
In order to better serve exports, BYD has even entered the ro-ro ship business and will equip seven ro-ro ships in the next two years to alleviate the problem of insufficient export capacity. BYD's sales target for 2024 is 4.5 million 5 million units, and its proportion of the largest population will also be further increased.
Of course, the process won't be smooth sailing. At the end of last year, European Commission President von der Leyen announced that he would investigate BYD, SAIC, and Geely on the grounds of "subsidizing low-price dumping", which is a typical "can't afford to play". You must know that BYD seals have been sold for 350,000 yuan in Europe, and Yuan plus has been sold for 260,000 yuan.
Whether it is the EU's "New Battery Law" or the "Inflation Reduction Act" in the United States, they are all disguised market protection. Many people worry that new energy vehicles will eventually become high and low, although Europeans are the first to start promoting them.
In fact, there is no need to worry too much, the annual sales of global cars are about 90 million, and our country's sales are more than 30 million, plus the United States also has about 15 million sales (the United States is also a strong supporter of transformation), which accounts for half of the world's automobile production and sales. In this case, even if all the other countries do not follow up, there is already a 50% fundamental, and we are the mainstream ourselves.
As for exports, this in itself is a matter of luck and loss, and the follow-up will inevitably be a long-term competition.
(4) Kung Fu shooting
Wang Chuanfu said that without the support of Guangdong Province, there would be no BYD today, which is definitely from the bottom of his heart. As the province with the greatest support for energy-saving vehicles, one out of every four new energy vehicles in the country will be "made in Guangdong" in 2023, which can be regarded as a return for years of hard work.
What is high-quality development? This is actually a big concept, not only to have a complete industrial system, but also to have enough innovation, brand influence, and core competitiveness. From this point of view, BYD also has a long way to go.