CNR, Beijing, February 18 (Reporter Cao Qian) On February 13, MSCI announced the new and excluded list of major index series quarterly adjustments in February. For the A-share constituent stocks in the MSCI Emerging Markets Index, 4 new ones** such as Midea Group, China Merchants Highway, MGI, and Samsung Medical have been added, and 48** have been excluded, such as SRP, Honglu Steel Structure, Puluo Pharmaceutical, and E-Hualu.
Since 48 A-share companies were eliminated and only 4 were transferred, some people in the market interpreted it as a negative signal.
In this regard, a number of brokerage chiefs pointed out that this quarterly adjustment is more of a technical adjustment based on the market value inclusion standard, and the relevant ** transferred in and out of emerging market indices is basically a two-way balance, and the overall impact on China's A-shares is relatively limited, and the outflow of funds is controllable.
The transfer in and out is basically balanced in both directions.
MSCI's adjustments to its major index series such as the Global Standard Index, the Global Small Cap Index, and the Global Micro Cap Index will take effect after February 29**.
As a regular quarterly review, 5 new companies have been added to the MSCI China Index, including 1 Hong Kong stock and 4 A-shares, and the A-share companies are Midea Group, China Merchants Highway, MGI, and Samsung Healthcare. Correspondingly, 66 targets were excluded from the index because they did not meet the quantitative conditions, including 14 Hong Kong stocks, 48 A-shares and 4 Chinese concept stocks.
According to public information, MSCI makes routine adjustments to all its indices four times a year, in February, May, August and November each year. In 2017, MSCI announced the inclusion of A-shares in the MSCI Emerging Markets Index based on a factor of 5% of the investable market capitalization, and in 2019, the inclusion factor of A-shares increased from 5% to 20%.
Judging from the number of new and eliminated A-share companies alone, the transfer out is much higher than the transfer in, and some people in the market interpret it as a negative signal, believing that the adjustment has a great impact on A-shares.
In fact, a number of brokerage chiefs pointed out that each adjustment of the MSCI index is mainly based on objective quantitative indicators, such as market capitalization and liquidity. This time, both in terms of inclusion ratio and market capitalization, the two-way balance has basically been maintained, and the proportion of A-shares in the MSCI emerging market index has hardly changed, and the overall impact of the adjustment is relatively limited, and the outflow of funds is controllable.
Wu Xinkun, chief analyst of Haitong Strategy, said that the reason for the quarterly adjustment is more a technical adjustment based on the market value inclusion standard, because the total market value of the 48 A-shares transferred out is in the range of 10 billion to 24 billion yuan, so it is lower than the relevant market value and circulating market value standards and was transferred out.
The impact of the adjustment on the market is mainly focused on the capital side, mainly foreign capital, due to the passive ** following the MSCI global index or will allocate more funds to the newly included **, and the ** will be excluded passive selling.
According to rough estimates, the total market capitalization of the excluded sample accounts for a very low proportion of the EMS index, and the superposition does not involve adjusting the inclusion factor of A-shares in the EMS index for 20%, and the overall impact of the adjustment may be relatively limited. Wu Xinkun said.
CICC's Chief Overseas Strategy Analyst** also pointed out that the impact of the changes in weights and passive capital flows caused by index adjustments is quite limited. From the perspective of historical law, the impact of conventional index adjustment on the overall market is controllable.
*According to the analysis, the total weight of the 48 A-share companies excluded this time in the MSCI Emerging Markets Index is only 0097%, according to the scale of passive funds tracking the index, based on the current MSCI A-share capital volume of about 345 billion yuan, the potential passive fund outflow scale can be calculated to be about 3RMB 300 million, which is very limited compared to the trading volume of the A** market, which is about 004% or so.
From the perspective of **, the outflow pressure of the above-mentioned excluded companies is also controllable as a whole. Correspondingly, the weight of the four A-share companies included in the index accounts for about 0037%, and the potential passive inflow is designed to be about 1300 million RMB. The impact of the index adjustment is limited in terms of changes in weights and passive capital flows.
A shares may meet the bottom of the first wave***
Looking forward to the market outlook, the chief of the brokerage agreed that the positive factors on the capital and policy side have been accumulating in the near future, and the A** field may usher in the first wave of the bottom
Wu Xinkun believes that from the policy point of view, the first quarter is often the time window for major domestic meetings, and the active policy of stabilizing growth will continue to exert force, and the domestic fundamentals may be gradually repaired.
From the perspective of capital, the net outflow of active funds from A-shares, represented by financing transactions, has been obvious in the past period, and it is expected to be gradually replenished in the future.
In addition, the Federal Reserve is expected to start an interest rate cut cycle in 2024, benefiting from the general trend of loosening overseas liquidity, and the RMB exchange rate may gradually stabilize in the future, and A-share foreign capital is expected to return.
Gu Shengxi, chief analyst of CITIC Index Research, pointed out that as of January 31, 2024, China** has a weight of about 25 in the MSCI Emerging Markets Index8%, which is an important position in emerging markets. Since February 2024, the total net inflow of northbound funds has been 2116.9 billion yuan.
At present, the valuation of A-shares is at a historical low, and the historical quantile of PE in the past ten years of the CSI All-Share Index is about 14%, which is a good time for foreign capital allocation. Gu Shengxi said. (CCTV Capital Eye).
For more exciting information, please refer to the application market** "Central Radio Network" client. Welcome to provide news clues, 24-hour report**400-800-0088;Consumers can also complain online through the "Woodpecker Consumer Complaint Platform" of CCTV. Copyright Notice:The copyright of this article belongs to the Central Radio Network, and it is not allowed to be unauthorized **. Please contact: cnrbanquan@cnrWe will be held accountable for not respecting the original.