Plums in the western part of the railway.
A few days ago, Akio Toyoda publicly attacked EVs again, this time saying that the market share of pure electric models can only reach 30% at most, and the rest of the market will be occupied by hybrids, hydrogen fuel cell vehicles, and gasoline vehicles.
This man has sung about EV too many times, so much so that it doesn't make much sense to analyze his words from an industrial perspective. Only this time, things seem a little bit different?
Musk's response to Akio Toyoda's remarks on X |Screenshot from X. by Sawyer Merritt
For example, Ford recently decided to reduce the production capacity of its F-150 Lightning, an all-electric model, and invest idle workers and equipment to expand the production capacity of the Bronco and Ranger, both of which are gasoline-powered models. For another example, Tesla's 2023 financial report, although it achieved its annual sales target, its stock price fell sharply due to a series of unsettling factors such as the continuous decline in gross profit margin, the first decline in net profit since 2017, and the lack of a sales target for this year.
The chairman of Japan's number one traditional giant is still singing down, the number one traditional giant in the United States is cutting EV production capacity for fuel vehicles, and the world's number one EV giant is not reporting satisfactory ......Is there really something wrong with the EV and is really hitting the ceiling? The answer, of course, is no.
Ford's EV sales are indeed falling short of expectations, and it is a fait accompli that Ford is reducing production. But it should be noted that the electric horse and F-150 lightning were suppressed by Tesla, and their market share was also taken away by Tesla, not fuel vehicles. And in terms of responding to the market situation and quickly adjusting product planning, Ford has been the fastest response among traditional car companies over the years, and you must remember that in 2018, Ford cut the North American car business very abruptly.
Unlike many traditional car companies, including General Motors, Ford is far more like an American company — rather than a traditional American car company — and is sensitive to the reaction to the market, the profit returns of its products, and so on, to the point of being ruthless, and rarely has the stubbornness (or sense of pride) of the traditional auto giants.
Let's not forget that Ford, like Volkswagen, has always been the most radical of the traditional giants, and now the electric horse and F-150 Lightning have responded less than expected, more like an adjustment than a steering. Furthermore, this may not be a good thing to hear, but Ford's influence on EVs is not enough to influence the overall situation, and even if Tesla announces that it will give up, it will no longer be able to influence the overall situation.
Not to mention Tesla, in recent years, the only new product it has really come out with is the Cybertruck released in 2019, and FSD has never been able to land in China, and its dominance has declined, especially in China, which is inevitable.
It's not the time to go to heaven |From Pixabay by Juhele
Even Toyota already has a large-enough EV program of its own. In April last year, Toyota's new CEO Tsuneji Sato announced his determination to transform himself in his first public appearance after taking office: to advance the original plan of 3.5 million units in 2030 and first achieve the target of 1.5 million EV sales in 2026, and to set up a separate division for this purpose. In addition, Toyota entered into a partnership with Japanese petrochemical giant Idemitsu Kosan in October last year to jointly develop solid-state batteries.
Instead of stopping, EV looks like everyone is working against Akio Toyoda.
And we have to note that Akio Toyoda's attacks on EVs have become more and more frequent recently. In the past, when he was still the CEO of Toyota, the frequency of attacks on EVs was about once a year at most, but since he stepped down as CEO last year, he has fired at EVs three times in a row in just four months, in October, December, and January this year. And judging from the new "no more than 30%" argument this time, he is still constantly looking for new angles to convince people that EV has limited potential and get people to side with him.
What's more interesting is that his attitude towards new energy has changed, at first he said that EVs will ruin the automotive industry, EVs are not environmentally friendly, and now, he says that EVs have a 30% ceiling. At the same time, he has been emphasizing the core concept that the future automotive market will be driven by EVs, hybrids, hydrogen fuel cell vehicles and fuel vehicles, and he has been emphasizing this theory.
He is using his own theory to disprove the current Toyota transformation strategy, which seems to have become his manifesto.
There are some things that don't need to be said explicitly. Let's look to historical business stories for some corroboration.
In 1976, Apple was officially founded. One year later, due to the distrust of the board of directors and Jobs' independent style, the company appointed Michael Scott as CEO, and Jobs was no longer the de facto ruler of the company.
Originally, the core of Apple's technology was Wozniak, and Jobs was originally a manager and salesman, but with Scott becoming CEO, Jobs's position became awkward.
At the beginning of 1979, the LISA project was established, and Jobs, eager to prove himself, frequently participated in the project, trying to take the lead in the project. In 1981, the top brass no longer tolerated Jobs' continued overstepping and interference with the project, and expelled him from the project. Frustrated and angry, Jobs took over a smaller project within the company.
The small project that Jobs took on was the original Mac, and as the project grew, Jobs began to attack Lisa as a failed product. Around the same time, when Jobs drifted away from his personally recruited CEO, Scully, he was attacking him and trying to kick him out.
From the day he relinquished control of Apple, to the day he was expelled from Lisa, to the day he discovered that Scully was not under his control, everyone knew what Jobs thought:
It's obviously my company, and I'm going to take it back.
From the movie "Steve Jobs".
Akio Toyoda's vision for Toyota is like his declaration on new energy: the future automotive industry should be composed of EVs, hybrids, hydrogen fuel cell vehicles and fuel vehicles.
When he was the CEO of Toyota, there was no real push to commercialize hydrogen fuel cell vehicles, hybrid models were all but stagnant after the legendary Prius, and EVs were also barely successful. According to statistics, Tesla has accumulated losses of more than $7 billion in the 14 years from 2006 to 2019, while Toyota's annual net profit is around $20 billion. Akio Toyoda had so much time, so many resources, and so much money to do so many things, and he missed it.
Nowadays, how much does Toyota need to promote the theory of "EV + hybrid + hydrogen fuel cell + fuel vehicle"? Would that be simpler and more cost-effective than transitioning to an EV?