In this fast-changing world, some things can be turned upside down in thirty years, or even three years is enough. There is an old Chinese saying, "Thirty years in Hedong, thirty years in Hexi", which is used to describe this fickle situation.
The Russia-Ukraine war has been going on for two years, and the war has experienced many ups and downs. At first, Russia wanted to quickly capture Kyiv, overthrow the pro-Western Zelensky**, and re-establish its own geosecurity barrier.
It is a pity that Russia was overconfident and underestimated the intensity of Western intervention, which led to a strategic failure of a quick victory, fell into a situation of passive beating, suffered heavy losses on the battlefield in Ukraine, and almost collapsed. Russia can only adjust its strategy in time, narrow the scope of defense to the four eastern Ukrainian states, and use the terrain advantage to consume Ukraine's offensive force, so as to barely stabilize the situation.
War is like a machine, once started, it is a system that runs through the process. The short-term victory or defeat of a war depends on strategy and wisdom, as well as one's own military resources. The final victory or defeat of the war depends on factors such as resource consumption, logistical support, troop mobilization, and the war potential supported by the country's comprehensive national strength.
When the Russian-Ukrainian war reached a stalemate stage and turned into an endless war of attrition, Ukraine's domestic industrial base had been completely destroyed, and it could only rely on Western blood transfusions to maintain balance on the battlefield.
In contrast, although Russia's economy has been sluggish in recent years, it has huge reserves left over from the Soviet period, and its domestic industrial system has also provided continuous equipment supply for Russia's front line in a wartime state, and has full strategic autonomy. This is also the fundamental reason why the Russian-Ukrainian war has been fought so far, Russia has become stronger and stronger, and has regained the initiative on the battlefield.
After exhausting all means and resources, and unable to gain an advantage on the battlefield, the attitude of Western countries began to waver. The U.S. Congress no longer wants to allocate funds for this hopeless war. European countries have also followed the lead of the United States and stopped large financial assistance to Ukraine.
The money bags of the West are not bottomless, and no one can stand burning money like this. The tightening of the West's wallet was soon reflected on the Russian-Ukrainian battlefield. The Ukrainian army is already short of troops, and it has lost a large number of elite soldiers and reserves after this autumn and winter, and now it can't even build a new defense line.
The West's first-class equipment and financial aid have been cut off, and it is full of uncertainty, Ukraine immediately lost its advantage in firepower on the battlefield, and was passively beaten everywhere on the thousand-kilometer-long front.
After the loss of an important stronghold in Maryinka, the Ukrainian army has lost 70% of its riverbank bridgehead in the Kherson direction, and Avadiivka is also surrounded by regiments and can be cut off at any time. At the same time, Russia launched a large-scale offensive in Chasov Yar and continued along the Liman and Kupyansk directions.
In the face of an increasingly serious situation, Ukrainian ** Zelensky felt strongly dissatisfied with the lack of Western aid. He recently publicly stated that Kyiv "never" surrenders in a battle with the Russian army, but "if there is no more assistance", the Ukrainian army will not be able to support it, the fighting will be even more tragic, and then the Ukrainian side will "have to hand over the territory" because the opponent is "well-armed".
Kyiv no longer has the ability to achieve results on the frontal battlefield, and can only use the intelligence network and long-range missile systems of the West to launch some sneak attacks occasionally to maintain a little presence and create some favorable situations on the **. Just recently, the Ukrainian army used two Su-24 front-line bombers to launch missiles in the early morning of the 26th to destroy the Russian army's 4,400-ton Type 775 large landing ship "Novocherkassk", which caused a lot of repercussions.
The Russian army's response was also very decisive, using a total of 26 fighters, including Tu-95, Tu-22, MiG-31, Su-35 and other models, to carry out air strikes on major cities in Ukraine, firing more than 110 missiles, and a large number of unmanned attack aircraft participated.
In a battle where there must be a result, Putin and Russia's decision-makers have understood very well that there is no point in negotiating without anything on the battlefield. Russia initiated several rounds of negotiations on its own initiative during the war, but it did not receive enough respect and response, and until now the door to negotiations has been "substantively" closed.
After finding the "dead hole" of the Russian-Ukrainian battlefield, there is no reason for Russia to stop at this time and return to the negotiating table where there is little sincerity.
Taking advantage of the West's energy and resources being dispersed to the Palestinian-Israeli conflict, Russia is likely to increase its offensive on the Russian-Ukrainian battlefield, on the one hand, to completely eliminate the threat of fortress groups at the gates of the four eastern states of Ukraine; On the other hand, it is also possible to enter the plains of Ukraine without barriers, conduct a large-scale maneuver and roundabout operations, and once again approach Kyiv, achieving the goal of demilitarizing Ukraine and establishing a real buffer zone at the negotiating table.
Next year is an election year in the United States, and after Trump was disqualified from running, the situation in the United States is full of uncertainties, and the attention of the United States will also be shifted to the country. Russia also has to carry out *** Putin's tough guy image is very much needed for Russia in crisis, and Putin's approval rating is also as high as more than 80%.
Putin, who has more and more chips and occupies a bigger and bigger advantage, has no reason not to end the Russian-Ukrainian war next year.