Recently, the world economic pattern has changed againJapan fell out of the top three economies.
It is understood that since surpassing Japan in 2010, China has long been the second largest economy in the world!
Therefore, the United States, China and Japan have always maintained the pattern of the top three!
Until 2023, this pattern will be broken, and Germany will overtake Japan to become the world's third largest economy.
Why is Japan being overtaken by Germany when its growth rate is higher than that of Germany?
Let's move on to this question!
First, let's take a look at the economic situation of the top four economies in 2023!
China was the first to release economic data, with GDP exceeding 126 trillion yuan in 2023About 1789 trillion US dollars, a year-on-year increase of 52%。
The 2023 GDP of the United States is 2773 trillion US dollars, a year-on-year increase of 25%，The gap with China has widened slightly, mainly due to the impact of the exchange rate!
In addition, since the first half of last year, Japan's nominal GDP has fallen out of the top three in the worldAnd this ** was confirmed recently!
The data shows:Japan's real GDP grew by 1 year year-on-year in 20239%，The nominal growth rate of GDP, which reflects prices**, was 57%。
Japan's preliminary GDP statistics are 591482 trillion yen,That's about $4,210.6 billion, lower than Germany's $4,456.1 billion.
The data shows that between October and December 2023,Japan's GDP growth rate is minus 0 per year4%，Negative growth for two consecutive quartersIt means that the Japanese economy has officially fallen into a structural recession!The International Monetary Organization and other authoritative institutions, if according to this trend, within a few years,India's GDP will surpass Japan's, and Japan may fall to fifth!
As for why Germany's GDP growth rate in 2023 is negative, but it can still surpass Japan's, it is mainly affected by the exchange rate!
Judging from the exchange rate last year, the yen has depreciated even morehas been hovering around 150 and has almost fallen to a 33-year lowTherefore, when the GDP of the two countries is converted into dollars, Germany has a greater advantage.
In addition, the average inflation rate in Germany in 2023 is still high at 59%, the second-highest value since reunification, directly boosted Germany's nominal GDP growthGermany's nominal GDP grew by 63%！
At the root of this, the main reason why Japan was overtaken by Germany is that the Japanese economy has been lacking stable growth momentum!
The Japanese economy has been facing serious challenges and dilemmas over the past few decades.
Although Japan experienced a boom in the bubble economy in the 80s of the 20th centuryHowever, after the bubble burst, Japan failed to find the impetus for sustained and steady growth.
This is mainly due to Japan's dependence on energy and resource imports, as well as problems such as the weakening competitiveness of the electronics industry and an aging population.
As a result of these factors, Japan's economic growth has been sluggish, making it difficult to compete with other countries.
Japan's economy has been sluggish for a long time, although there is still growthBut this has been achieved through monetary easing and fiscal stimulus, not through industrial development.
Monetary easing and fiscal stimulus have also stimulated the strength of Japanese stocks to a certain extentRecently, Japanese stocks have continued to rise, continuing to hit a new high since January 1990!
However, it is important to recognize that the renewal of Japan's industrial structure has lagged behind that of other countries, such as China and South Korea.
For example, in the shipbuilding industry, Japan used to be the leader in the global shipbuilding market, with a market share of more than 50%!
However, today China has three key indicators in the shipbuilding industry -The number of shipbuilding completions, new orders and hand-held orders have exceeded 50% of the world market, ranking first!
It is also in the field of automobile manufacturing, which Japan is proud ofJapan has long been in a dominant position in the pastBut its presence and influence have declined significantly.
Not only are there frequent exposure to fraud scandals and declining competitive advantages of automotive companies, but also the failure to respond to major changes in the global automotive industry in a timely manner!
Under the wave of new energy vehicles, China has surpassed Japan and become the world's largest automobile exporter!
At the same time, Japan is facing a serious aging problem, with 29 people over the age of 65 in the world, ranking first in the world, and this severe aging situation has led to a decrease in the young population, which has reduced the vitality of the economy.
Moreover, Japan's challenges are not unique to Germany.
According to the International Monetary Organization, if Japan lacks strength in implementing reforms in the real economy, then Japan's nominal GDP ranking could slip further in the coming daysIt was even replaced by India in the fourth place in the world!
For Japan, reviving the economy requires proactive measures to promote industrial innovation and development, and reduce its dependence on monetary easing and fiscal stimulus.
At the same time, the reform of the real economy should be strengthened to improve competitivenessAddressing the challenges of ageing and responding to changes in the global economic landscape.
Only through these efforts can Japan find its way back to prosperity!