Previously, Lao Mei seemed to be satisfied with the performance of the economyThey believe that the economy has successfully achieved a "soft landing", especially Yellen!
However, a sudden "black swan" may once again trigger small and medium-sized banks in the United StatesEspecially the wave of bankruptcies of some community banks!
In addition, liquidity in the US money market is also significantly decreasing.
Will the crisis have global repercussions? Will it spread to our country?
Let's move on to the conversation!
The first is the question of a "soft landing" for the United States!
Previously, the United States released a number of economic data,The data is indeed encouraging, and the economy does not seem to need to go through a difficult recession phase!
Previously, Yellen had said:The U.S. economy has achieved a soft landingThat is, in the case of a gradual weakening of inflationary pressuresEmployment and economic growth remain high, which can be said to be very successful!
Normally, the U.S. economy is generally based on inflation and labor market data!
In December, the U.S. core personal consumption expenditures price index fell by 2 year-on-year9%, the year-on-year growth rate hit a new low since March 2021.
The non-farm payrolls data released in early February was unexpectedly strong:
Nonfarm payrolls rose by 35 percent in January, after a seasonally adjusted period30,000, the largest increase since January 2023, and the unemployment rate is stable at 37%, down from 38%。
Wage growth accelerated again, doubling market expectations to 06%, the highest since March 2022.
What does this mean?
This means that inflation is under control and prices are getting smaller and smaller. At the same time, the employment situation is better than expected, and it seems that the economy has not been affected by the rate hike!
Previously, the Fed kept its policy rate at 525%-5.The 5% interval is unchangedThis level of interest rates has remained unchanged since July last yearEven Powell said: It is less likely to cut interest rates before March!
However, the reality may be,The United States** focuses too mechanically on economic data and ignores many other economic phenomena.
For example, they don't give any warning about the New York community banking crisis, as if as long as they don't see it, they assume it doesn't exist!
How can this kind of behavior be done?
In particular, small and medium-sized banks and community banks may be at risk of bankruptcy again, which needs our attention.
You know, the stock price of the New York Community Bank once fell hardIn just a few days, it has dropped by more than 60%!
This is somewhat similar to the stock price situation before the bankruptcy of several banks such as Silicon Valley Bank last year!
We should be more vigilant about the emerging New York community banking crisis and take corresponding measures in advance to avoid the further expansion of similar problems.
Maybe it's because the old United States is raising interest rates too fast hereSo much so that the negative effects of interest rate hikes have not really appeared, which makes many people feel that the economy has a "soft landing"!
In fact, it is not!
It is very important to look at economic phenomena in a long timeframe.
For example,Lao Mei successfully achieved a brief "soft landing" between 1996 and 1998It's only been two years. The so-called "hard landing" came unexpectedly.
The same situation happened again in 2006-2007, when the United States once again achieved a "soft landing"!
However, due to the fact that the debt of the residential and corporate sectors reached a stage high almost simultaneously!
Then came what we know as the subprime mortgage crisis, when financial institutions went bankruptleads to an even more serious "hard landing"!
From 2018 to 2019, there was also a brief "soft landing" for the Laos and US economies, but only 2 years later, the subprime debt problem of energy companies triggered a new "hard landing"!
Therefore, most of the "hard landings" in the United States will go through a period of "soft landing" before the "soft landing".
Therefore, a "soft landing" of just a year or two does not make much sense!
Many market participants believe that the United States has achieved a "soft landing" and is too optimistic!
In addition, we must also be vigilant to avoid the impact of the shortage of funds in the United States!
In order to deal with this problem, China's central bank recently implemented a policy of reducing the reserve requirement.
According to calculations, this time the RRR cut is 05 percentage points will provide the market with about 1 trillion yuan of long-term liquidity. In other words, the RRR cut has given banks an additional 1 trillion yuan of low-cost funds.
In addition, in late January, the central bank also introduced measures such as lowering the re-lending and rediscount interest rate for supporting rural and small enterprises. Together with the RRR cut, the combined effect of a series of measures will guide bank lending rates to continue to fall.
Analysts said that the RRR cut exceeded market expectations in terms of implementation strength, timing and policy mix.
At the moment we need to be very vigilantIs it possible that the current situation in the United States will be similar to that of 2006-2007?
In case the United States becomes disillusioned with a soft landing,There is a high risk of a repeat of the 2008 economic crisis, and this is a risk that we should be aware of.