Sales of COVID vaccines are declining, competition for HPV vaccines is fierce, and shingles and flu vaccines are selling ......The recent performance forecasts released by various vaccine companies show that there is a "double sky" scene between different vaccine categories.
The 2023 annual performance forecast released by Kangtai Biology shows that it is expected to achieve a net profit attributable to the parent company of 8500 million to 9500 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of 74050% to 81586%, net profit is expected to increase by more than 7 times. How is this done? According to its announcement, one of the reasons is the continuous growth of conventional vaccines, and its sales revenue of conventional vaccines (excluding new crown vaccines) increased by no less than 16% year-on-year. 13-valent pneumococcal vaccine and 23-valent pneumococcal vaccine are its "star products".
According to the 2023 performance forecast disclosed by Hualan Vaccine, a leading vaccine company, the company is expected to achieve a net profit of about 7500 million to 9500 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of 44% to 82%. As for the reasons for the performance growth, Hualan Vaccine said that in 2023, the company's influenza vaccine sales will increase significantly, the public's awareness of "curing the disease" with influenza vaccine will continue to increase, and the market demand will increase significantly.
Baike Biotech recently disclosed its 2023 performance forecast, saying that it is expected to achieve operating income of 17 in 2023600 million to 18700 million yuan, and its performance growth was mainly due to the approval of its herpes zoster vaccine.
The revenue of bivalent cervical cancer vaccine decreased by about 4.2 billion yuan year-on-year, and the revenue of new crown diagnosis decreased by about 1.2 billion yuan year-on-year. Wantai Biotech issued a performance reduction announcement, saying that it is expected that the net profit attributable to the owners of the parent company in 2023 will decrease by 74% compared with the previous year66% to 7149%。The reason for the decline in Wantai Bio's performance is the decline in revenue from bivalent cervical cancer vaccine and new crown-related businesses. Another major HPV vaccine leader, Walvax Biotech, also announced a few days ago that it is expected to achieve a net profit of 400 million yuan to 4 million yuan in 2023600 million yuan, down 45% to 37% year-on-year. Sales of bivalent HPV vaccine were lower than expected and sales of 13-valent pneumococcal vaccine declined as the main reasons for the performance.
Industry outlook: vaccine companies are busy turning.
Vaccines often have a life cycle, and the key is how to adjust the direction in time and whether there are other varieties of reserves in the future. Pharmaceutical companies that previously focused on the research and development of new crown vaccines have turned to Pfizer, such as Pfizer, which has targeted cancer and first-class drugs.
Since last year, the "cold foci" of the past, including rabies vaccine and herpes zoster vaccine, have gradually become hot. According to data from the Chinese Center for Disease Control and Prevention, the rabies vaccination rate of the post-exposure population in China is only about 35%, which needs to be improved; According to data from Frost & Sullivan, with the deepening of the aging population and the increase in vaccination awareness, China's herpes zoster vaccine market has increased from zero in 2015 to 600 million yuan in 2021, and is expected to increase to 10.8 billion yuan in 2025.