As the Russian-Ukrainian conflict continues, a new center of strategic decisive battle is gradually emerging in the Avadiivka direction. According to information disclosed on social media ** by the Russian telegram group "Z Committee", the Ukrainian army has amassed a large number of troops here, including 7 mechanized brigades, 1 tank brigade, 3 territorial defense brigades and 8 separate battalions. In addition, there are 16 drone companies, 3 regiments, 1 battalion, 9 companies of special forces and armed police forces to provide support, with a total strength of more than 20,000 people.
It is worth noting that unlike the temporary shortage of troops sent before, the troops reinforced by the Ukrainian army this time, except for the 47th Mechanized Brigade, are fully equipped and their personnel have been effectively replenished. Despite unconfirmed ** news reports that the 47th Mechanized Brigade is not yet fully in place, the unit has been reinforced with American M1A1 main battle tanks, demonstrating the determination and strength of the Ukrainian army in this direction.
Because of its special strategic position, Avadiivka is regarded by the Ukrainian army as the best decisive battlefield on the Eastern Front. Since it came under the control of the Ukrainian army in 2015, the city has been a forward stronghold for Ukrainian forces to launch attacks on armed areas controlled by the Ukrainian army in eastern Ukraine. In the 7-year-long civil war in Ukraine, the Ukrainian army has built Avadiivka into a strong barrier city, with more abundant ammunition reserves and a more complete defense system than other fronts.
Tunnels and trenches are spread throughout the region, and in coordination with the industrial zone in the south and the coking plant in the north, the Ukrainian army in the city can quickly maneuver to the designated position for defense, no matter which direction the Russian army attacks. This topographical advantage allowed the Ukrainian army to stop the Russian offensive from all sides, thus turning Avadiivka into an easily defended fortress.
However, although the Russian army took control of the coking plant in the north and the commanding heights of the "garbage mountain" in October last year, and the Wagner forces attacking from the south have also rushed into the industrial area to engage the Ukrainian army in street fighting, more than three months have passed, and the Russian army has not been able to further expand the area of control in the city of Avadiivka. The entire city became a prominent part, making the deployment of Russian troops on the front line complex and difficult to coordinate.
This circumstance created an opportunity for Ukrainian reinforcements to launch a counterattack on the defensive positions of the Russian army on both flanks. Compared with the long defense line built by the Russian army in Zaporizhzhia, the Ukrainian army's ** operation in Avadiivka is more likely to be successful. If the Ukrainian army can achieve victory and regain control of the region, this will greatly boost the morale of the Ukrainian army and improve its attitude towards the development of the situation in the countries of the United States and Western Europe.
However, there are also significant risks associated with this situation. Once the Russian army cuts off the salient from the outside and encircles the Ukrainian troops inside the salient through a pincer offensive, the consequences will be unimaginable. There is a precedent in history: in the 2015 battle for Debaltsevo, the Russian-backed eastern Ukrainian forces used similar tactics to encircle and annihilate the encircled 8,000 Ukrainian troops and cause nearly 5,000 casualties. If a similar situation happens again to the Ukrainian army in the Avadiivka salient, then the Ukrainian army will suffer heavy losses and possibly lose a significant amount of mobile combat effectiveness.
Dynamic incentive plan in February Therefore, for the Ukrainian army, the operation in the Avadiivka direction requires careful and careful planning. And for the Russian army, the key to achieving its strategic goals lies in the ability to regroup and annihilate as many Ukrainian reinforcements in this direction. As both sides continue to build up troops and strengthen their deployment in the region, the "second **mut" has gradually turned from a figurative to a real adjective - a new strategic decisive center has emerged that could determine the direction of the Russia-Ukraine conflict.