In the past two years, there has been a clear trend of adjustment in the domestic real estate market. After entering 2024, the real estate market will continue its previous trend. As of January 2024, the average second-hand residential property in Baicheng is 15,230 yuan square meters, 056%, which has been month-on-month for 21 consecutive months**. In addition, in January, the number of cities with second-hand housing prices in 100 cities reached 99, and it has exceeded 90 for 8 consecutive months.
The current trend in the real estate market was anticipated by Li Ka-shing, the richest man in China. Li Ka-shing reminded everyone as early as 2018:The house is always meant to be lived in. Housing prices will face a major reshuffle in the next five years, speculation needs to be cautious, and the debt expansion of many mainland developers is coming to an end。At that time, the domestic real estate market was in a boom period, and no one could listen to Li Ka-shing's **, and many people thought that Li Ka-shing was "old and confused".
Nowadays, many investors and speculators have not been able to get out of the real estate market because they have not been able to exit the real estate market in time. At the same time, some large developers have defaulted on their debts and unfinished buildings due to blind debt expansion in the early stage, and now the entire real estate industry is gradually reducing the debt ratio, controlling the scale of investment, and avoiding a liquidity crisis. Obviously, Li Ka-shing's ** back then was completely correct.
In fact, the big correction in the real estate market will not affect the family with only one property too much. However, for those families who own more than two properties, the impact will be more far-reaching. According to statistics released by the central bank, China's urban household home ownership rate has climbed to 9686%, of which up to 415% of urban households own 2 or more properties. So, what will be the result of the trend of real estate market adjustment for families holding 2 or more houses?
First, the liquidity of the property will become less and less
Starting from April 2023, there has been a surge in the number of second-hand housing listings in China. Statistics show that at present, the number of second-hand houses listed in key cities such as Zhengzhou, Wuhan, Qingdao, Tianjin, Nanjing, Shenyang, Beijing, Chengdu and Chongqing has exceeded 150,000 units. Among them, the number of second-hand housing listings in Chongqing has exceeded 250,000 units.
Nowadays, second-hand housing is becoming more and more difficult to sell, even if it is like a commercial house in the center of Shanghai, if the second-hand landlord sells more than 20% below the market price, it is difficult to realize the transaction. In the future, with the deepening of the adjustment of the property market, the number of listings in the second-hand housing market will rise, and the liquidity of houses in various places will become worse and worse. In the end, the second-hand landlord can only rot the house in his hands.
Second, the pressure to hold a home is rising
Families with two or more properties will continue to increase the pressure to hold a house in the future. On the one hand, many people have purchased several properties before the pandemic. After the epidemic, income decreased or job losses, but the mortgage pressure did not lessen much. This makes it feel like the pressure to own multiple properties is too much. And it will go on for many more years.
On the other hand, a family with more than two properties will have to pay several times more than a family with only one property. Moreover, the current property fee and other expenses will have different degrees of ** every year. Clearly, the pressure on families with multiple properties to hold a home is much heavier than in the past.
Third, the market value of real estate will continue to shrink
Previously, many people would have thought that the real estate market would diverge in the future. Housing prices in third- and fourth-tier cities are substantial, while housing prices in first-tier cities such as Beijing, Shanghai, Guangzhou and Shenzhen are "only rising but not falling". In fact, the housing price bubble in the third and fourth tier cities in China is not very large, and the ratio of housing prices to income is 25, that is, the income of ordinary families can buy a house for 25 years. Therefore, the space for housing prices in third- and fourth-tier cities in the future is relatively limited.
For first-tier cities, the ratio of housing prices to income is more than 40. This means that families in first-tier cities will have to go without food or drink for 40 years before they can buy a house. Obviously, in the future, whether it is a small or medium-sized city or a large city, housing prices will gradually be linked to the income of local residents in the future. For families with multiple properties, the market value of the property will continue to shrink in the future.