Kunpeng Project
The largest interest rate cut in history is coming, how will ordinary people be affected?
China's central bank recently released a news: the one-year LPR is 345%, while the LPR for more than 5 years starts at 42% to 395%。That's a drop of 25 percentage points all at once, which is much more than we expected!
What does this mean? From the perspective of the previous 5-year benchmark interest rate, the 5-year benchmark interest rate has been lowered 8 times, but the previous benchmark interest rate was 5-15 percentage points.
For example, in 2022, the bank has already cut interest rates twice, by 10 basis points for the one-year LPR in June and 10 basis points for the one-year LPR in August. In 2022, there were also two declines, but by 30 percentage points.
In less than a week, the Fed cut interest rates by 25 percentage points, the largest rate ever. This is an important message. This means the start of the largest cycle of rate cuts ever. So, what kind of impact will such an interest rate cut have on the average home buyer?
01.First of all, from the perspective of individuals and households, for ordinary people, the most intuitive impact is to save interest. For example, a house of one million, 30 years of interest, without any adjustment, has to repay 4,890 yuan every month. However, with the current 395% of the money, the money paid off every month is 4745 yuan, plus 3With a 5% loan discount, the money to be repaid every month is only 4,490 yuan.
That's a lot of money! If it's in a first-tier city or a second-tier city, that's a lot of money.
In fact, the current loan interest rate can be said to be the cheapest in history, which is equivalent to the loan interest rate several years ago. At the same time, this means that all households with mortgages will continue to reduce their monthly payments in the coming year. After a rough calculation, by January 1, the loan of one million yuan will be reduced by 143 yuan.
Why wait until next year? The first thing to understand is that the LPR adjustment in February does not mean that the loan repayment amount will fall in March, but is calculated from the month of the loan interest rate adjustment date specified in the loan contract between the individual and the bank.
Let's say you sign an agreement that adjusts your borrowing interest in January, and your borrowing interest will remain there until the end of the year. Wait until next February before your mortgage rate drops by 15 percentage points. Let's say you have an agreement to reconcile your mortgage interest in February, and by the third month, your mortgage interest will go down. Therefore, the key to whether you can take out the pranayama in March depends on whether the agreed pranayama date in the agreement you signed before can keep up in time.
From this we can get two micro results: first, for households with housing loans, from January 1, we have already said above, in fact, this is a very sensible approach.
Second, it is a good policy for those who want to buy a house, which can give them more time to buy a new home. The impact of this interest rate cut on the real estate market is not that you can save a few small dollars a month, but from a macro perspective.
02.From a macro point of view, we have sorted out the housing loan interest rates in the past few years, after the housing reform in 1998, there were two large waves of interest rate cuts in 2009 and 2015, and one of the important points is that these two reductions in housing loan interest rates are basically the triggers for the soaring housing **. It's all in times of economic crisis, ** shot.
First, the crisis of 2009 stemmed from the collapse of subprime mortgages in the United States in the fall of 2008, when the collapse of the Lehman Brothers caused the United States to plummet. The United States and real estate alone lost 10 trillion yuan, almost the total GDP of the United States.
By the end of 2008, the global economy had also experienced a recession. In response to the global economic crisis, since September 2009, ** banks have begun to cut interest rates, five times and four times. Subsequently, people's discussion of the real estate market also changed from "**" to "warming", and finally evolved into "**soaring".
Secondly, since the second half of 2014, the RMB exchange rate has been rapid**, triggering a financial war since 2015. At the beginning of 2015, the exchange rate broke through the 100 mark from 80. With the strength of the yuan, the ** market in the United States has also ushered in a wave of surge.
In the same year, the U.S.-led Trans-Pacific Partnership was signed in 2015. The economic and trade agreement, which has shut us out, is seen as a declaration by the United States to rebuild the global industrial chain. That is, from this year, China's foreign exchange reserves have been decreasing, the US federal ** has raised interest rates, accelerated the withdrawal of foreign capital, and even Chinese and Hong Kong businessmen have participated.
Some of them have adopted domestic and foreign borrowing and other means to wantonly acquire overseas property, resulting in a substantial reduction in China's foreign exchange reserves. Still others focus on selling properties overseas on the mainland, blatant sounding the horn of short selling.
It was also in that year that the country began to cut interest rates, real estate ** began to pick up, and by 2016, real estate ** had the largest increase in history. So, the question now is, with wave after wave of interest rate cuts, will the real estate market still be as frenzied as the previous two waves?
03.Will the house ** fall into a frenzy again? Why is this the third round of rate cuts, and its intensity comparable to the previous two financial crises?
Historically, the five-year benchmark interest rate has been lowered eight times, but the previous benchmark rate was 5-15 percentage points. This time, they cut interest rates by 25%, the largest ever. That's why I say it's the largest interest rate cycle ever. What's more, there was such big news at the beginning of this year, and the following days may be even longer.
First of all, the interest rate on the loan has not decreased, although it is the lowest loan interest rate in history, but most people believe that this is a high figure and there is a possibility of a reduction in the future. After all, the current property market is really bad. The income of ordinary people has fallen sharply, many people cannot afford to pay a deposit at all, and the pressure to repay the money every month has also skyrocketed.
Statistically, the number of people who cannot afford to pay their mortgages is still increasing. Today's situation, compared with the past, there is no meaning at all, people's spending power, will be greatly affected, only continue to cut interest rates, continue to reduce the cost of buying a house, in order to make more people willing to buy a house, so as to achieve the effect of stabilizing the property market.
Do you think that banks will honestly lower loan interest rates? In fact, from the overall situation, it is not that banks are unwilling to reduce prices, but they must reduce prices, whether internally or externally, there is already the possibility of further price reductions.
1.Inside out.
Since last year, the bank's ** has lowered the savings rate in April, May, September, and December. Why keep lowering the interest on your savings? In fact, this reason is very easy to understand, because reducing the interest rate on savings is equivalent to a reduction in the financing cost of banks, so there is some room for interest rate cuts.
If the interest on the deposit is reduced to 1%, it means that the interest on their mortgage will drop to 10%.
Two or three percentage points, so as to promote people to buy houses and promote enterprises to borrow from banks. Only in this way can their loan amount be expanded, and they will be able to have a profit of one or two percentage points, so that they can have more income instead of making them lose money.
On the other hand, if people are not very motivated to buy a house, if the economic growth rate is lower than expected, then it is very possible to reduce the cost through mortgages, and the banks will not lose money, and in the case of lower interest on loans, they will also reduce the interest on loans.
This also means that the savings of ordinary people, whether they are demand deposits or savings deposits, have deposits of less than one percentage point, and may even reach 0. As a result, the value of savings will fall significantly in the future, and there are clear signs of lower interest rates.
2.From the outside world, the US Federal Reserve Bank really cannot withstand the downward pressure on interest rates, so we can have more room to adjust monetary policy, and external conditions fully support our room to continue to cut interest rates.
Under this expectation, China's economy is likely to enter a cycle of low interest rates and large releases, which is certainly not good for most people who like deposits and cash, but for the capital market, it is a good thing.
When the time comes, the rich who are saddled with debt and property will go after the middle class who only know how to save. In other words, it is the largest rate cut ever, and many will be rich and others will be poor because of it.
In addition, we can also refer to the white list of major real estate companies before the New Year, according to the Beijing News reporter, from January 30 to February 4 next year, 11 provinces across the country have announced the first batch of "white list", a total of 1775, with a total of 370 billion funds. It is reported that 84% of the above-mentioned projects under construction are private enterprises and mixed real estate enterprises. From this point, it can be seen that this is to "make money for the property market".
Therefore, in general, the LPR interest rate cut is also a good thing for the property market. And, from a multi-party perspective, even in 2024, the whole country is using the power of ** to save the market. And in 2024, it will be time for large-scale financial instruments to appear. Wait and see! Wan Ziwen: "Every sentence I write is well thought out, please click to read it and tell me that you are also working hard for your own life." ”