California is the world's leading area for the application of hydrogen passenger vehicles, and can be called the "holy land" of fuel cell passenger vehicles.
Recently, a piece of news overshadowed the hydrogen energy market in California. Shell has announced the permanent closure of all its vehicle hydrogen refueling stations in California. According to CAFCP data, there are only 55 vehicle hydrogen refueling stations in California, and Shell operates seven of them. This news marks the "embarrassing" status quo of the development of the hydrogen passenger car industry in the United States.
At the same time, another news**, Japan's Iwatani (one of the two major operators of hydrogen refueling stations in the United States) is suing the Norwegian company NEL, the core technology of the hydrogen refueling station it operates, on the grounds that there are quality problems in the equipment supplied by NEL hydrogen refueling stations, resulting in various problems such as valve and other component failures and equipment shutdown in multiple hydrogen refueling stations operated by Iwatani in California, such as long maintenance time, repeated postponement of opening time, and having to close the door for adjustment after just opening, Some hydrogen refueling stations are even only open for 5 hours.
Two highly correlated messages have sparked interest in hydrogen vehicles. Hydrogen refueling station is an important supply station for hydrogen energy vehicles and an indispensable part of the hydrogen energy industry chain. Today, the operation of hydrogen refueling stations in California is in trouble, showing the difficult situation of hydrogen passenger vehicles in overseas markets.
What is the meaning behind this phenomenon?
Hydrogen Cloud Chain believes that behind the sudden changes in California hydrogen refueling stations, it reflects the difference between the mode of "first ride and then business" or "business first and then ride" of hydrogen energy vehicles.
1. The number of passenger cars is difficult to maintain the operation of hydrogen refueling stations
Under the marketization model of Europe, the United States and Japan, the performance of the hydrogen passenger vehicle market continues to be sluggish, and it has maintained a growth level of 1,000 or even 100 units per year for a long time. The scarce stock and scattered distribution of vehicles directly lead to the low operating load and high cost of hydrogen refueling stations.
In contrast, China, which is dominated by hydrogen commercial vehicles, has been able to carry out "on-demand design" of hydrogen refueling stations, and the operation is relatively good.
Still taking Shell as an example, Shell started "multi-business transfer" in 2022.
In October 2022, Shell announced the closure of all hydrogen refueling stations in the UK (see "Shell closes all its hydrogen refueling stations in the UK due to sluggish demand"), and the lack of market demand and low utilization of hydrogen refueling stations are the core reasons for Shell's closure of hydrogen refueling stations in the UK.
Instead of waiting for the launch of the fuel cell passenger car market, Shell is looking to explore opportunities to establish a "multi-modal hub for heavy-duty trucks" in the UK. Oil and gas companies are starting to focus on larger commercial vehicles.
Even so, it is still difficult for domestic hydrogen refueling stations to make a profit, and the embarrassing situation of overseas hydrogen refueling station operation can be imagined.
2. The stagnant market is not conducive to promoting the iteration of hydrogen refueling station technology
The low load rate of hydrogen refueling stations leads to too little equipment operation and an increase in the failure rate on the one hand, and on the other hand, it leads to low willingness of equipment manufacturers to update their technology and a decline in investment. These two aspects have led to a decline in the iteration of hydrogen refueling station technology, and European hydrogen refueling station equipment manufacturers such as NEL have even outsourced the development of hydrogen refueling station equipment. In contrast, with the support of commercial vehicle demonstration projects, domestic hydrogen refueling station equipment manufacturers have taken a much larger and faster pace in technological innovation and equipment cost reduction.
"Multiply before business" or "business before multiply" does not represent the advantages and disadvantages of the industrial development choices in each region, and the appropriate development model is the goal. The experience of pure electric vehicles has shown that a reasonable model can accelerate the accumulation of experience and technology iteration, and finally achieve industry leadership.
It is foreseeable that China is expected to take the lead in achieving commercialization goals in the hydrogen commercial vehicle market.
Editor: Hydrogen Hydrogen My Heart Proofreading: Wind Hydrogen Yang Review: Hydrogen Cloud Little Fairy.
*: Beijing Business Daily, hydrogen cloud chain finishing.
Statement: The content of the article is for reference only, and does not mean that Hydrogen Cloud Chain agrees with its views or confirms its description.