If you want to know more exciting content, come and follow My SteelOverview:Recently, the domestic chemical coal market has shown a mixed situation. Affected by the Spring Festival holiday, the production area will be slightly reduced, coupled with the impact of non-electric Spring Festival replenishment, coal prices have a phased situation, portsThe demand for replenishment before the holiday was lower than expected, the market continued to be cold, and some of the top business prices were loosenedThe port market ** was lowered by 5-10 yuan tonsRecently, all parts of the country will usher in the largest range of rain and snow weather this winter, and the market will be limited; In this context, how will the chemical coal market perform? This article will conduct a comprehensive analysis from many aspects such as origin, port, import, and downstream.
Coal mine shipments in the origin are acceptable, and the downstream wait-and-see sentimentGradually
State-owned coal mines normal production and sales, private mines have increased the number of shutdowns, safety supervision has become stricter, the market coal has shrunk, some coal mines in the mining area are selling well, ** slightly rising, Shaanxi Q5500 reported 680-700 yuan ton, Q5800 reported 730-740 yuan ton, Q6000 reported 760-800 yuan ton, Q6100 reported 810-820 yuan ton, Inner Mongolia Q5500 reported 660-700 yuan ton, Q5000 reported 560-610 yuan ton, Q4500 reported 480-510 yuan ton.
Ports** were lowered in a narrow rangeOverall demand is still insufficient
Port MarketLatest**5500 calories 900-915 yuan ton, 5000 calories 790-810 yuan ton, Q4500 calories 690-700 yuan ton,At present, the downstream demand performance is poor, there are few inquiries and price inquiries, and the gap between quotations and returns is large, the actual transaction is not smooth, and the upstream and downstream participants are in a wait-and-see posture. According to MySteel statistics, as of the 30th, 1097. Tune out 1191. 64 ships at anchorage, 48 ships in advance, 2058 in stock1, minus 94。(10,000 tons).
Imported coal prices remained stableThe market is trading deadlocked
Recently, coastal power plants continue to release procurement demand, it is reported that the Q3800 landed price is 526-539 yuan including tax, which is about 648-66.$4 tonnes, the bid price is small**. At present, the shipment speed of Indonesia's foreign mines has slowed down due to heavy rain, supporting ** to hold stable Q3800** 60-61 US dollars ton; The superimposed freight is small, the cost of taking the goods is high, the bid price continues to be upside down, and some importers are not confident in the market outlook. It is expected that the import market may operate weakly and steadily in the short term, and it is necessary to pay attention to the changes in foreign mines and the price of power plants in the later stage.
The number of days available for power plant inventory is optimisticThe market has a limited level of procurement
Affected by the cold wave weather, the temperature in many places across the country has gradually decreased, and the demand for civil electricity has increased, but due to the short time and the connection with the traditional Spring Festival factory shutdown and holiday node, there is no obvious driving effect on the terminal coal consumption; The power plant went to the warehouse slightly, and only a small amount of rigid procurement was released under the condition of a stable supply of long-term agreements and imported coal. According to MySteel statistics, as of January 26, the total coal storage in the sample area of 256 power plants across the country was 4,69130,000 tons, daily consumption of 25910,000 tons, available days 181 day.
Coal consumption in the chemical industry remains normalIt is difficult to substantially improve market demand
According to the analysis of domestic coal-to-methanol enterprises: according to mysteel chemical data, as of January 26, the methanol operating rate in the northwest market was 9351%, an increase of 2 week-on-week44%；Profit-wise,According to 31The daily mysteel thermal coal chemical enterprises to the plant coal data showsInner Mongolia Q5500 raw coal to the plant ** average isYuan tonsUnchanged from last week. It is reported that the coal consumption per ton of coal-to-methanol enterprises is 21-2.3 tons or so, with an average of 22 tons of calculation, of which the amount of raw coal is 16 tons, fuel coal 06 tons, plus the rest of the artificial hydropower cost of 500 yuan tons, the cost of methanol per ton is 2140 yuan, but the average price of the low-end of the methanol market in Inner Mongolia today is 2000 yuan tons, and the theoretical profit of coal methanol in the Inner Mongolia market is -140 yuan tons.
In summary,In terms of global coal, global coal is stable, domestic imports are increasing, and the increase in domestic demand is not enough to support coal prices at a high level; On the demand side, the overall pressure on power plant inventory is small, and the terminal is currently mainly supplemented by long-term agreements, replenishing warehouses on demand, and the demand for coal in the market is relatively flat, and the overall sentiment is wait-and-seeExpected short-termChemical coalThe market may beMaintain a weak operationIn the later stage, the focus should be on the changing weather conditions.
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