Text: Ren Zeping's team.
CPI fell 08%, the previous value decreased by 03%；PPI fell 25%, the previous value fell by 27%。1 There are more ways to boost confidence than difficulties
Monthly price data improved month-on-month but was weaker than seasonal, and negative year-on-year for four consecutive months, reflecting insufficient aggregate demand. Structurally, service consumption continues to recover.
At the beginning of the year, the RRR was lowered, 500 billion PSL was invested in the three major projects, the 1 trillion yuan additional treasury bond issuance projects in 2023 were all issued, and substantial favorable policies such as the entry of Huijin into the ETF and the introduction of the white list of real estate enterprises continued to advanceHowever, it will take time to reverse the weak situation of the economy and the housing market.
With low inflation, there is room for further easing of monetary policy to support fiscal efforts. The first quarter may still be the window for interest rate cuts, and the reduction of deposit rates will open up room for interest rate cuts. There is no need to worry about the interest rate differential between China and the United States, the monetary policy of major countries is dominated by me, and the primary goal is domestic economic growth and employment, which is the basic market.
We should take a comprehensive view of the important role of real estate in economic growth, employment and land finance, and turn debt into debt. Recently, Guangzhou and Suzhou have canceled purchase restrictions, and Shanghai and Beijing have relaxed purchase restrictions.
In order to boost confidence, we need to rebuild consensus that development is the foundation for solving all problems, putting development at the top of the list, going all out to fight for the economy, kicking off a new round of economic stimulus plans, canceling all tightening economic and non-economic measures, providing stable expectations and a sense of security. There is no other way, because this is the basic law of the economy, and we have relied on this common sense to successfully cope with 1998 and 2008, and we have performed very well. Respecting economic laws and respecting the market is always more ways than difficulties.
monthThe price data presents the following characteristics:
First, CPI and core CPI have been month-on-month for two consecutive months, and the increase in pre-holiday consumer demand is the main reason. The year-on-year decline in CPI was mainly due to the dislocation of the high base during the Spring Festival last year, as well as consumption after the relaxation of epidemic prevention and control last year**. CPI fell 08%, 03%。The core CPI was 04%, 03%。
Second, food is 04%，The main reason is the increase in consumer demand before the holiday. Non-food items, month-on-month **02%，Compared with the previous month**03 percentage points,The main reason is the consumption of services represented by tourism and travelIn January, home services and tourism were **27% and 42%, an increase of 2 from the previous month5 and 41 percentage point.
Third, pig prices are still at the bottom of the ** period, and the year-on-year decline has narrowed. In January, pig prices fell by 02%, 0 percent narrower than the previous month's decline8 percentage points. The production capacity of the pig cycle has been tightened, and the inventory of fertile sows in December 2023 will be -5 year-on-year7% year-on-year since March9% has been declining for eight consecutive months. As of February 7, 2024, the average wholesale pork** is 2291 yuan kg. The increase in industry concentration lengthens the pig cycle, and the pig price may be in a long period of bottoming.
Fourth, the year-on-year decline in PPI narrowedDomestic demand for industrial products is still insufficient. PPI fell 02%, a decrease of 01 percentage point. PPI fell 25%, a decrease of 02 percentage points. The means of production and the means of subsistence both decreased by 02%, a decrease of 01 and -01 percentage point.
cpiMonth-on-month for two consecutive months**, the increase in pre-holiday demand is the main reason
The monthly CPI fell by 08%, the decline increased by 0 from the previous month5 percentage points, mainly due to the dislocation of last year's Spring Festival and the high baseTwo years compound 06%，It fell 01 percentage point. In the year-on-year change in CPI in January, the carryover effect was about -11 percentage point, the new price increase factor is about 03 percentage points,
cpi03%，This is an increase of 02 percentage points. ；The contributing factors are food and services. The core CPI excluding food and energy** was 04%, down 02 percentage points. 03%, compared with the previous month**02 percentage points.
This month's food items **month-on-month**, mainly due to the increase in consumer demand before the Spring Festival; The month-on-month decline in pig prices narrowed.
First, fresh vegetables and aquatic products affect CPI 013 percentage points. On a month-on-month basis, fresh vegetables and aquatic products in January were **38% and 26%, a change of -3 from the previous month1 and 17 percentage points; Edible oil, meat, eggs, milk, and fresh fruits** decreased month-on-month. 5% and 05%, a change from the previous month. 1、-1.3、-0.6 and -22 percentage points.
Second, the month-on-month decline in pig prices narrowed, which was affected by the bottom of the downward pig cycle and the high concentration of the pig industry. In January, pig prices fell by 02%, a decrease of 08 percentage points. Pig prices fell by 17 percent year-on-year3%, a decrease of 8 from the previous month8 percentage points.
Non-food products increased by -0 month-on-month1% to 02%, an increase of 03 percentage points,The main reason is the increase in pre-holiday travel demand and service consumption.
Among the seven categories, clothing **declined, and the rest**both**. Clothing, housing, transportation and communications, education, culture and entertainment, medical care, daily necessities and services, and other goods and services in January were respectively month-on-month. 0% and 11%, respectively, from the previous month. 2 and 08 percentage points.
From the breakdownThe Spring Festival is approaching, and the consumption of services represented by family services and tourism is **common**. In January, home services and tourism were **27% and 42%, an increase of 2 from the previous month5 and 41 percentage point. Transportation use and maintenance, postal services, medical services, other supplies and services on a month-on-month basis1%, respectively, from the previous month. 8 percentage points. Consumer durables** differentiated, transportation and communications** fell month-on-month, household appliances***January. Household appliances, means of transportation and means of communication were 06%、-0.1 and -03%, a change from the previous month. 6、-3.4 percentage points.
Pig cycle: both year-on-year and month-on-month rebound
Monthly pig prices rebounded year-on-year and month-on-month. Pig prices fell by 17 percent year-on-year in January3%, a decrease of 8 from the previous month8 percentage points. Month-on-month, it decreased by 02%, 0 percent narrower than the previous month's decline8 percentage points. As of February 7, 2024, the average wholesale pork** is 2291 yuan kg.
We judge that the current is still in the ** bottoming stage of the pig cycle.
First, the production capacity is at a high level, but the year-on-year decline has continued for 8 months. According to the time law of the pig cycle, it takes about 10 months for the production capacity to be transmitted to the pig price. May 2022The production capacity bottomed out and rebounded, and it returned to positive synchronously in October; In October 2022, the number of breeding sows was 07%, and the number of fertile sows in December 2023 was -5 year-on-year7% year-on-year since March9% has been declining for eight consecutive months.
Second, the current pig food ratio is the most grinding bottom. On February 2, 2024, the price of pig food will be 663, has entered the normal range. On July 3, 2023, the state announced that the official will start the collection and storage of pork reserves to improve market expectations. After the news was released, the price of pig food continued to rise, but then slowly declined; On December 21, 2023, ** will start the last storage in 2023, and the storage is expected to reach 230,000 tons, the largest strength in the year; On January 26, 2024, in order to stabilize pig prices and support holiday supply and demand, ** reserve frozen pork was rotated out of the warehouse, and the bidding volume of this transaction was 20,000 tons. Both supply and demand have increased, and pig prices are expected to continue to be moderate**.
With the increase in industry concentration, the pig cycle may be extended. After African swine fever in 2018, the proportion of 13 listed companies in the country increased by about double to 14 in 20213%。The increase in industry concentration may bring economies of scale, the production capacity of large-scale breeding institutions will continue to increase, irrational economic behavior will be reduced, the pig cycle will be extended, and the pig price will be grinded for a longer time.
5 ppiThe year-on-year decline narrowed
Affected by the off-season and insufficient demand for domestic industrial products, PPI decreased year-on-year and month-on-month. PPI fell 02%, a decrease of 01 percentage point. PPI fell 25%, a decrease of 02 percentage points. In the year-on-year change in PPI in January, the carryover effect was about -23 percentage points, the impact of the new price increase is about -02 percentage points.
fromIndustrial producers leave the factory ** look:The means of production and means of subsistence fell month-on-month, and the decline in the means of production was close to 80% of the PPI decline. In January, the means of production and the means of subsistence both fell by 0 month-on-month2%, a decrease of 01 and -01 percentage point. From the sub-item,Extractive industries, raw materials and processing industries were 02%、-0.2 and 03%, respectively, from the previous month. 3、-0.1 percentage point. Food, clothing, general necessities and consumer durables** were respectively month-on-month. 0% and -04%, respectively, from the previous month. 2 and 05 percentage points.
From the perspective of the industry, the petrochemical industry chain and consumer manufacturing industry are strong in ferrous and non-ferrous metals.
The petrochemical industry chain and consumer manufacturing** declined. January. Oil and gas extraction, petroleum, coal and other fuel processing, rubber and plastic products, non-metallic mineral products, chemical raw materials and chemical products manufacturing, and chemical fiber manufacturing** were -08%、-1.7%、-0.4%、-0.6%, a change from the previous month. 3、-0.1、-0.7 and -04 percentage points.
In January, the reproduction of agricultural and sideline food processing, food manufacturing, wine, beverage and refined tea manufacturing, textile and garment, apparel, textile, paper and paper products, printing and recording media were respectively. 2%、-0.1%、-0.3%、-0.3%、-0.3% and -01%, a change from the previous month. 2、-0.2 and 01 percentage point.
The ferrous and non-ferrous metal industry chain is strong, which is consistent with the high-frequency data. In January, ferrous metal ore mining and dressing, non-ferrous metal ore mining and dressing, ferrous metal smelting and rolling processing industry, and non-ferrous metal smelting and rolling processing industry were respectively. 4% and 03%, a change from the previous month. 5、-0.4% and 06 percentage points.
Ferrous metals and non-ferrous metals were purchased**month-on-month**, and the rest of the categories were purchased***In January, the purchase of ferrous metals and non-ferrous metals increased by 0 month-on-month8% and 03%, a change of 01 and -04 percentage points. Fuel power, chemical raw materials, wood pulp, building materials, agricultural and sideline products, and textile raw materials were -08%、-0.8%、-0.1%、-0.1%、-1.0%、-0.4%, a change from the previous month. 0、-0.2 percentage points.
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