**: Sina Finance-Ruijian Economy
Sina Finance 2023 Annual Conference and the 16th Golden Kylin Forum was held in Beijing on December 21, with the theme of "The Road to High-quality Development in a Changing World". Han Yongwen, vice chairman of the China Center for International Economic Exchanges and special researcher of the ** Counselor's OfficeAttend and speak.
Han Yongwen said, "The development of China's economy this year is indeed as evaluated by the ** Economic Work Conference, and we are promoting economic development in the midst of ups and downs." Since the second half of the year, especially in the third quarter, China's economic development has rebounded relatively rapidly and achieved a relatively good development trend, but on the whole, China's economy is still in the process of recovering and rebounding, and there are still many uncoordinated and unstable factors in the process of recovering and improving."
Han Yongwen pointed outSince the third quarter, China's economic development trend has been stable and improving, and there are five characteristics. FirstIt is the industrial economy that is gradually picking up, and the pace of structural adjustment has been accelerated. SecondIt is the better-than-expected performance of consumption growth and the rapid growth of service consumption. ThirdIt is the relatively good situation of residents' income and employment recovery. "In particular, the growth of residents' income has returned to a higher growth rate than GDP for the first time this year, which is a relatively good performance in the past three years." FourthIt is the external growth that has seen relatively positive changes after September, reversing the long-term sluggish or even declining growth trend before September. FifthDespite the structural growth, the growth of the total scale has continued to decline after March, but there have been positive changes in investment growth, which has laid a certain foundation from the perspective of the country's long-term economic development, transformation and upgrading, and the transformation of the driving force to promote economic growth next year.
In Han Yongwen's view, although the economy is continuing to recover and the market vitality is gradually increasing, the growth structure of economic growth is still lower than market expectations, and market demand changes are still repeated. "The manufacturing PMI fell to 49 in November4%, below the line of prosperity and withering for two consecutive months, and slowly declining for three consecutive months, as analyzed by the first economic work conference, the effective demand is insufficient, some industries have overcapacity, there are blockages in the domestic cycle, and the contradiction between the supply and demand structure is still more prominent.
He thinksThe coordination of economic development needs to be further strengthened.
First, the driving force supporting economic growth is still weakThe lack of demand in the real economy is still a prominent contradiction, which is mainly manifested in the uncoordinated contribution rate of the growth of the secondary and tertiary industries to economic growth. The secondary industry, especially industry, has a weak driving force for economic growth, and its contribution is not high.
Of course, it is also necessary to see that in the past two years, due to the decline in real estate investment, housing sales have continued to decline, which has restricted the development of the construction industry in the secondary industry, the building materials industry related to the construction industry, the growth of housing decoration and home furnishing manufacturing and a series of problems," he said.
In the first three quarters, the added value of the tertiary industry increased by 6%, 0 percent higher than the GDP growth8 percentage points, and the contribution rate to economic growth is as high as 882%, driving GDP growth by 46 percentage points. "This shows that the growth of the service industry is normal, but it also reflects the structural inconsistency and imbalance of economic growth, which is that the industrial recovery is insufficient and the growth potential of the service industry is strong," Han Yongwen pointed out.
He said that the growth of the secondary industry and the tertiary industry has a large deviation, the lack of development of the service industry for a long time is a short board in China's economic development, we hope that the proportion of the service industry in the total economic volume can be relatively large, but China's economic development is supported by the real economy, industry, especially manufacturing, is the advantage of China's long-term stable development, and the support of industry for economic growth is insufficient, indicating that industrial growth has not yet achieved effective recovery.
Second, consumption growth has recovered rapidly, but investment momentum is insufficientThere is a structural imbalance between investment and consumption growth. "The large contribution of consumption growth is a feature of the current economic structural recovery, but it also brings another problem of uncoordinated development, that is, the recovery of consumption growth is accelerating but the momentum of investment growth is insufficient, of course, it is also necessary to see that consumption growth is still restorative, relatively low-end, and the internal structure is not very reasonable," he said.
Insufficient investment demand and investment growth are relatively prominent problems in economic operation this yearAnd marginal growth continues to slow.
Han Yongwen pointed out that there is still a great deal of inconsistency in the troika that supports the resumption of economic growth. "The output of the three engines is unbalanced, this situation is an atypical feature under special conditions, especially the decline in external demand is caused by multiple external factors, but if it evolves too quickly into a long-term development trend, this is a phenomenon that should not occur in China's economic development at this stage, which will not be conducive to the coordinated development of China's economy and even bring about an imbalance in China's economic growth momentum and development structure," he said.
Third, the economic benefits are still not very ideal. "The data shows that the operating income of industrial enterprises above designated size has been declining for most of the time this year, and the cumulative growth in September has been zero, which is also a phenomenon that has not been seen for many years," Han Yongwen said, and the operating income realized per 100 yuan of sales revenue was only 80 yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 56 yuan, corporate profits also fell for a long time, until August began to turn from negative to positive, but from January to October still fell by 78%。
This year, a lot of efforts have been made to clean up and rectify the problem of arrears of accounts receivable of industrial enterprises, and the situation should be said to have been greatly improved, but the amount of arrears is still increasing", he said, at present, the society reflects that the phenomenon of serial arrears of enterprises is still more common, forming a chain of squeeze, and the normal business activities of enterprises have been squeezed by insufficient cash flow, which in turn leads to a lack of market confidence and weakening development expectations.
In addition, the lack of impetus for the development of the private economy, the lack of investment momentum for private enterprises, and the lack of orders are still relatively prominent problems. "There are also economists who analyze, if you deduct the investment in real estate investment by private enterprises, the investment growth of private enterprises is about 9%, this point of view I think is also right, but there are also wrong", Han Yongwen said, because the decline in real estate sales is not a matter of this year, the last two or three years have had outstanding performance, it should be said that there is time and space for private enterprises to reconsider the direction of investment and consider the adjustment of investment structure.
There are still a series of problems such as lack of confidence and poor expectations for the future market and the current market development of private enterprises," he pointed out.
Han Yong** tune,It is necessary to consolidate and strengthen the momentum of economic development and strive for better economic development next year.
First, it is necessary to further boost market confidence and enhance market expectations"There are many factors affecting market confidence at the moment."
In terms of exchange rate changes, he said that in the past two years, the renminbi has depreciated a lot against the US dollar, and it has fluctuated constantly, and about two-thirds of China's exports are supported by imports. The RMB exchange rate** is good for exports but bad for imports, and the overall disadvantages outweigh the favorable factors. The depreciation of the exchange rate has led to an increase in import costs and pulled up export costs, coupled with the sluggish international market demand, which has led to a reduction in the income of export enterprises and national taxes.
In terms of fluctuations, Han Yongwen pointed out that there has been a lot of discussion about fluctuations recentlyThe shrinkage and abnormal volatility of the capital market have seriously affected the confidence of enterprises and residents, and boosting ** is an important ballast stone to boost market confidence.
There is an interesting phenomenon, since the beginning of this year, not since the third quarter, the economy has continued to pick up for the better, but this good has not been reflected in the capital market, which really shows that our capital market, ** in many aspects still have problems."
He suggested that in order to enhance market confidence, the next step is to accelerate the reform of the capital market, adjust and improve the system design and construction of the capital market, improve the regulatory mechanism, through the rectification of the capital market order, standardize the listing and market trading behavior of enterprises, and severely crack down on all kinds of non-compliant behind-the-scenes operations, so as to promote the steady improvement of the market, and also a clear investment environment for the market and shareholders.
Talking about foreign investment, Han Yongwen said that at present, the inflow of foreign capital has decreased and the net outflow of capital has increased, resulting in unstable market expectations and insufficient investment momentum, and it is necessary to further improve the investment environment and enhance the confidence of foreign enterprises and foreign capital to enter the Chinese market.
In terms of real estate, he said that the current market is sluggish, the oversupply of real estate is more serious, the supply structure is distorted, and the excessively high housing prices form a serious asymmetry with the low income of most residents.
Second, we must take advantage of the rebound in market confidenceThe leading indicators are picking up, the market demand is booming, the producer index is low, and the window period for the reduction of production and operation costs of enterprises is to promote the structural reform of the industrial supply side, enhance the adaptability of industrial products and changes in the supply market demand structure, and adhere to the requirements of the first economic work conference, adhere to the deepening of the supply-side structural reform and expand the effective demand for synergy, further strengthen the adaptability of the supply and demand structure within the industry and the running-in, and strive to grasp the first in promoting the sustained development of the economy.
Second, the coordination of the development of the tertiary industry, strengthen the guidance of market information, enhance the internal supply and demand structure convergence and the development coordination between industries.
In particular, it is necessary to support the increase in the proportion of producer services and promote the deep integration and development of producer services and manufacturing", he said, which may be a prominent development direction for China's high-quality development in the future.
Han Yongwen said that according to the analysis of relevant parties, in the current real economy, especially in the manufacturing industry, the proportion of producer services is about 30%, and some people analyze that if it can be increased by 20 percentage points, it is very necessary for China to develop high-quality and enhance the competitiveness of the manufacturing industry, especially to strengthen the growth of high added value.
Third, we should implement a proactive fiscal policy and a flexible monetary policy that appropriately strengthens efforts to improve quality and efficiency.
FourthIn the current situation of very difficult business operation, especially the situation of private enterprise operation is very difficultIt is necessary to continue to sort out and rectify the arrears of accounts payable