At the end of 2023, fighting broke out again in northern Myanmar, and the Myanmar ** army showed tenacity in the face of adversity. However, in less than a week, at the beginning of 2024, the Myanmar ** army set off another sensational big news. Six brigadier generals and three colonels and other senior officers led nearly 4,000 soldiers and their families stationed in Lao Cai to surrender to the Kokang Allied Army, which was widely reported by Myanmar. Instead of abusing the prisoners, the Kokang Allied Forces sent six Brigadier Generals (including the Kokang Autonomous Region** Chairman Ton Thonton Myint, appointed by Min Aung Hlaing, the leader of the Burma** Army) to Lashio, a logistics center in northern Myanmar. Brigadier General Thontun Min survived the battle and saved his life and dignity after surrendering, but when he arrived in Lashio, he was suddenly arrested by order of Min Aung Hlaing on charges of disobedience, rebellion and dereliction of duty.
Brigadier General Thonton Myint ordered the surrender of the Burmese troops stationed in the last two strongholds on 4 January, while the Kokang Allied Forces announced on 6 January that all the Burmese troops stationed in Lao Cai had surrendered and designated 5 January as "Kokang Liberation Day". This time lag indicates that after Tun Tun Min issued the surrender order, the two sides were in contact about the surrender, possibly to discuss the final details, and an agreement was quickly reached. The actual situation seen by the outside world is that 6 brigadier generals including Thun Thon Min led 2,389 garrisons in Lao Cai and 1,601 military families, as well as a large amount of equipment, to surrender to the "Three Brothers Alliance" composed of the Kokang Allied Army, the De'ang National Liberation Army and the Arakan Army. Such a large-scale surrender means that the Burmese army has completely lost control of the Kokang region, which is of extraordinary significance. Myanmar military spokesman Major General Zo Myint Tun said at a press conference that the Lao Cai garrison's choice to surrender "was a decision made with the safety of military dependents in mind."
This statement was interpreted by the outside world as Min Aung Hlaing approving the surrender of Tatmadaw troops in Lao Cai. However, it was not until he was arrested after arriving in Lashio that new news came out that Brigadier General Thun Min ordered the surrender without authorization, so he was arrested by the military ** and prepared to be dealt with in accordance with military law. The surrender of the Burmese army and the surrender of ** does not correspond to normal logic. In general, if a high-ranking officer who ordered surrender without permission, such as Thontun Min, they would inevitably seek refuge from the Kokang Alliance. Because the Burmese army will not easily forgive those who surrender voluntarily, it is unlikely that Thontun Myint will agree to the Kokang Allied forces to send them back to Lashio, or arrange to flee to countries where Burma does not have an extradition treaty before surrendering. If they agree to surrender and are willing to return to Lashio and return to the side of the Burmese army, then either they have the handle of the army in their hands, or they are indeed ordered to surrender. In any case, the responsibility could not be entirely borne by Thon Thon Min, which is why they dared to return to Lashio.
Therefore, it is most likely that Min Aung Hlaing's behavior after the surrender of the Burmese army made Min Aung Hlaing very unhappy, which is why he was arrested after returning to Lashio. So what exactly did Tun Tun Min do? According to a release by the Kokang Allied Army, six Burmese Brigadier Generals sat at the same table and toasted with officers from the Kokang Allied Army, the De'ang Army and the Arakan Army. The subsequent ** shows that the generals of the ** army were also warmly entertained, and the atmosphere between the "guest of honor" and the "guest of honor" looked very harmonious, not at all like a war had just been fought, but more like a rare reunion of relatives and friends who had not seen each other for many years (in fact, it was the same as the "banquet scene" in rural southern China). In the past few months, the Burmese army has suffered repeated defeats, and the prestige of the army has been severely damaged, and now it has completely lost the Kokang area. This is undoubtedly a devastating blow to morale, and it is all supported by several large cities such as Naypyidaw and Yangon.
As a result, defeat is defeat, and high-ranking officers such as Tun Tun Min actually drank with the enemy, which dealt a devastating blow to the image of the military **. This will make many people who were originally inseparable from the Kokang Alliance realize that as long as they let go of **, the Three Brothers Alliance "will not be guilty of the past." There is no doubt that this will make more people stand on the opposite side of the ** army. Just as serious as the blow to morale, the complete loss of Kokang means that Lashio (the capital of Shan State and home to the Tatmadaw Army's Northeast Command, with a population of 600,000, half of whom are of the same ethnic group as the Kokang Allied Army) is also in danger. If Lashio is captured by the Allied forces, then the power of the "Three Brothers Alliance" will double, and the Tatmadaw army will have enough ** and ammunition stocks there to arm so many troops, and it will be possible to completely overwhelm the Burmese ** army in terms of numbers. This crushing defeat is bound to have serious implications for Min Aung Hlaing's authority. These senior officers may not be in danger of their lives at this time, as Min Aung Hlaing's men have limited personnel available.
These high-ranking officers, who have been tested in actual combat and have a certain understanding of the Kokang Alliance, can be said to be extremely valuable resources and can still play an important role in future wars. At most, they will be held for a few days before being released. Of course, if the top brass of the ** army chooses to execute these senior officers on the spur of the moment, I am afraid that it will incur even worse consequences, and may inspire more soldiers of the ** army of Myanmar to surrender, which is far more devastating than the current Lao Cai surrender incident.