Author |Li Jinglin
The first shot of the new energy vehicle war was fired by BYD.
Just after the Spring Festival, the BYD Qin plus and destroyer 05 launched the Glory Edition, with a starting price of 7980,000 yuan, on the official poster, BYD played the slogan "electricity is lower than oil", which means that new energy vehicles have officially entered a lower stage than the same level of oil vehicles. The price reduction is not reduced, the Glory version of the motor, the endurance has not been weakened, and it is also equipped with technologies such as intelligent power-on and power-on.
Li Yunfei, general manager of BYD's brand and public relations department, posted on Weibo that the Qin plus glory version and the destroyer 05 glory version are BYD's "king bombs" at the beginning of the year, and the plug-in hybrid can be lower than fuel vehicles of the same level, so next, who will buy fuel vehicles. According to the first financial report, the price reduction was immediate, and the number of store consultation and test drive users increased significantly.
The fact that new energy vehicles are more expensive than fuel vehicles of the same class has been criticized. After this price reduction, the starting version of Qin plus Glory Edition has created a new low in the industry for plug-in hybrid cars of the same level, and has been close to Buick, Changan and other joint ventures and independent fuel cars. When new energy also begins to squeeze the water, the days of fuel vehicles are even more difficult.
BYD pointed the finger at fuel vehicles, "In 2024, BYD will no longer show mercy to the joint venture fuel drivers, in order to accelerate the conversion of oil to electricity, it will launch a decisive battle against joint venture fuel vehicles at the beginning of the year, subverting the market pattern of fuel and speeding up again", BYD explained the logic of price reduction in an interview. According to the data of the Automobile Dealers Association, the top two car sales in 2023 are the joint venture brand products Sylphy and Lavida, and the BYD Qin PLUS DM-i ranks third, selling more than 70,000 units less than the first place.
In the field of new energy vehicles, BYD's sales volume will reach 3.02 million units in 2023, making it the sales champion in the Chinese market and the best-selling brand of new energy in the world. Forward impact on the market share of joint venture fuel vehicles, and try to maintain their sales advantages in the field of new energy, it is foreseeable that BYD's price reduction will put pressure on new forces, such as the delay in announcing the price, facing the most controversial Xiaomi SU7. BYD's actions and situation are a portrayal of the current competition in the auto market.
He Xiaopeng asserted in his opening letter to all employees of Xiaopeng Motors that this year is the first year for Chinese auto brands to enter the "sea of blood" competition, that is, the first year of the knockout competition. In the face of the knockout round, **battle is the most conventional and bloody**.
The death knell of fuel vehicles continues to ring?
Following BYD, many car companies have announced price cuts one after another.
Wuling took the lead in following up, and the new "glory price" of Wuling Starlight PHEV 150 advanced version 9980,000 yuan, up from 10 previouslyThe guide price of 580,000 yuan was lowered by 6,000 yuan; Then Nezha Automobile announced a price cut, and the Nezha X model was reduced by 220,000 yuan, and the adjusted price is 10480,000-12480,000 yuan, Nezha aya whole system dropped 8,000 yuan, sold for 6From 580,000 yuan; Nezha S dropped 5,000 yuan for all systems, selling 15From 480,000 yuan; Chang'an Qiyuan also followed up, and Qiyuan Q05 and Qiyuan A05 were the lowest 7Starting from 390,000 yuan, the slogan of "electricity is lower than oil" is also played.
This is not the end, Leapmotor posted on Weibo late last night: Is the volume finished? There are not enough volumes at all! Although there is no official announcement of the price reduction, the expectation of brewing a big move has been filled. In just 24 hours, the rim set off a small climax of price reduction.
Before the Spring Festival, Tesla began a new round of price adjustments in 2024. On January 12, Tesla China officially adjusted the price of the Model 3 Y rear-wheel drive version and long-range version, reducing it by 6,500 yuan to 15,500 yuan. In addition, there are optional discounts, and a number of original prices of 8000-12000 yuan of car paint are limited to 2000 yuan. On the fourth day of the Lunar New Year, the domestic brand Deep Blue Automobile also announced a price cut of 10,000 yuan for its SUV model S7.
It is foreseeable that this is only the beginning of the wave of price reductions in the car circle, and more car companies will be involved in the battlefield in the future. BYD Qin Glory Edition below 100,000 yuan, Wuling Starlight, Tesla in the price segment of 200,000 yuan, and even ideals of more than 300,000 yuan, almost all the first-class brands will be involved in the first-class war.
The ** battle after the Spring Festival this year can't help but think of the price reduction tide at the beginning of last year. Starting with Tesla's global sharp price cut, BYD released **Qin, pulling the entry ** into 100,000 yuan, and mainstream new energy brands have followed up. The wave of price reductions starting with new energy eventually spread to the whole industry, and fuel vehicles, whether low-cost models or high-end brands such as BBA, have given discounts on the sales side - the new forces are playing with their lives, and the most panicked are fuel vehicles. Entering 2024, fuel vehicles will only be more panicked.
Cui Dongshu, Secretary-General of the Passenger Car Association, said: "This year, the national passenger car market will still be fierce. From the perspective of fuel vehicles, the cost of new energy has fallen, and the same price of oil and electricity has brought huge pressure to fuel vehicle manufacturers. In addition, Cui Dongshu pointed out that with the rapid increase in the penetration rate of new energy vehicles, the scale of the traditional fuel vehicle market is gradually shrinking, and the contradiction between the huge traditional production capacity and the shrinking fuel vehicle market has brought a more fierce battle.
According to the statistical analysis of the China National Association, in January 2024, the production and sales of new energy vehicles will grow rapidly year-on-year, with a market share of 299%。Wang Chuanfu, chairman and president of BYD, said that the monthly penetration rate of new energy vehicles in China is expected to exceed 50% this year.
Recently, some fuel vehicle brands have also begun to reduce prices. On the 19th, Beijing Hyundai's A-segment Elantra raised its starting price to 7580,000 yuan, a decrease of 240,000 yuan, they deliberately shouted the slogan that "oil is stronger than electricity," and the-for-tat confrontation meant significant. SAIC-GM's Buick brand announced that it will reduce prices or subsidize some models from February 19 to 29. Among them, Buick LaCrosse, Valeant Pro, and Envision Plus provide 350,000, 550,000, 650,000 yuan bicycle discount and replacement subsidy.
However, price cuts do not seem to be able to stop the decline of gasoline vehicles.
According to the data of the Passenger Association, in 2023, 13.95 million domestic fuel vehicles will be sold, a net decrease of 920,000, a decrease of 6%, of which only the retail sales of luxury cars will increase slightly, and independent brands and joint ventures will decline across the board.
From another dimension, the survival situation of fuel vehicles is difficult. According to the survey report on the survival status of auto dealers released by the China Automobile Dealers Association, in the first half of 2023, the proportion of auto dealers who have completed the semi-annual sales target is only 249%。In the context of a weak market and high inventory pressure, the survey shows that the proportion of dealers' losses in the first half of 2023 is 503%, and the profit ratio is only 352%, with a flat ratio of 145%, the loss is at a high level in recent years. The dealership's poor business is a direct reflection of car sales, especially new car sales.
All kinds of circumstances show that fuel vehicles have no choice, and can only use the first battle to slightly delay the rise of new energy vehicles. However, new energy vehicles are also frantically reducing prices, and how much market share can fuel vehicles maintain? You know, at the beginning of last year, the top luxury brand Rolls-Royce announced that it would achieve full electrification by 2030.
**War, the main line of car company marketing in 2024
With the gradual increase in the market share of new energy vehicles, the competition within new energy is also intensifying. Wang Chuanfu once said that the development of domestic new energy vehicles will only run faster and faster, and will not give us the opportunity to stop, slow down and take a breath. Geely Automobile Group CEO Ganjiayue**, 2024 will be the "most volatile" year, and car companies will roll **, roll products, roll services, and roll traffic.
Accelerating the volume will inevitably bring the first downgrade. A researcher at Anbang Think Tank said that with the intensification of market competition, the production expansion of major new energy vehicle manufacturers has been intensifying, and the intensity of competition in the industry has risen rapidly. For large-scale consumer goods such as new energy vehicles, the result of intensified competition will inevitably bring market price reductions.
Throughout January 2024, although there is no official announcement of price reduction, many car companies have adopted a variety of ways, including AVATAR, Tesla, Leapmotor, Nezha Automobile, Ora, Lynk & Co, and many other auto brands have opened fancy **, in the form of limited-time insurance subsidies, time-limited deposit cash, etc.
In the short term, prices are generally reduced around the Spring Festival, and car companies are rushing to sell sales, and some dealers said in an interview with every news: "In 2023, the sales targets of many auto OEMs have basically not been completed, and even in December, everyone is still 'rolling'." This is also a background for the auto market to continue to fight the 'best war' at the beginning of 2024, and they all want to catch up with a wave of sales during the Spring Festival consumption season. ”
The effect is also there, in some regions and stores, in January this year, the sales volume of ZEEKR increased by 302% year-on-year, and the sales volume in Zhejiang and other local markets even exceeded Tesla.
In the long run, the price reduction of new energy vehicles is the main theme of the future market.
There are various reasons for price reduction, and in terms of the chain, lithium batteries have made room for car companies to reduce prices. On January 25, 2024, the average price of lithium iron phosphate square power cells was 038 yuan watt-hour; Ternary square power cell 0475 yuan watt hour, all compared with the same period last year. Lithium battery cells** have reached an all-time low. As we all know, in the production of new energy vehicles, batteries account for about 40% of the cost, and this part of the cost reduction can give car companies a lot of room for adjustment.
According to Founder**'s calculations, when lithium carbonate** drops from 500,000 yuan per ton to 100,000 yuan per ton, BYD seal models can release 0930,000 yuan cost space. Tesla pointed out in its financial report that the cost of one of its flagship models, the Model 3, has dropped by 30% thanks to cost reductions in batteries and manufacturing.
On the sales side, car companies are counting on price cuts in exchange for sales, and intensified competition is the core reason.
Even Tesla is under pressure, Musk publicly said that Tesla's biggest competitors are in China, Tesla's main sales models Model 3 and Model Y, almost all Chinese car companies are benchmarking, every once in a while, domestic brands will launch a new product against the benchmark, and competing products also strive to surpass in product technical indicators. Musk has set a sales target of 50% annual growth for Tesla, but the agency is generally **, Tesla's sales in 2024 will be between 2 million and 2.2 million vehicles, and the year-on-year growth rate will not exceed 25%.
It is difficult for Tesla to achieve substantial growth in the Chinese market in 2024, which gives domestic brands the opportunity to seize Tesla's respite window to seize the domestic market.
In 2024, the sales targets set by various automakers are quite aggressive. The ideal target sales volume is 800,000 units, doubling the target of 380,000 units in 2023; The sales target of Leapmotor is 300,000 to 400,000 units, a year-on-year increase of 108% and 178%; Zhiji Auto's sales target is 120,130,000 units, which is three times the actual sales in 2023. According to a number of ** reports, the sales target of Wenjie is 600,000 units, which is 9Sales of 40,000 units are more than five times more.
Just over two months after the start of 2024, many car companies have begun to launch ** models. On January 1, Xpeng Motors' first MPV model, the X9, was launched; On January 5, Geely's flagship pure electric sedan Galaxy E8 ushered in the official launch, this flagship pure electric car** is less than 200,000 yuan. Wang Jun, President of Changan Automobile, said: "According to our incomplete statistics, there will be 202 new products launched in China's auto market in 2024, including 152 new energy products, accounting for 75%. ”
Wang Chuanfu judged that China's new energy vehicles will enter a stage of oversupply, and the industry as a whole will enter the "knockout game". There is no most volume, only more volume. Ping An's ** research report said that the growth rate of the head new energy vehicle companies in 2024 will be under pressure, and the first battle led by the head new energy vehicle companies will continue, especially in the 10-200,000 yuan ** belt.
Send a new car, fight, engage. BYD has only fired the starting gun for accelerating competition in China's auto market in 2024. As for consumers, you can consider whether to start with the price reduction or continue to wait and see, and wait for the first battle to be more intense before fighting bayonets.