KIV, Feb. 18 (Xinhua) -- Strategic locations change hands Where is the Russia-Ukraine conflict heading?
Xinhua News Agency reporters Li Dongxu and Zhao Bing.
Russian Defense Minister Sergei Shoigu reported to Russian Putin on the 17th that the Russian army has fully controlled the city of Avdeyevka, an important defense hub of the Ukrainian army. In the early morning of the same day, the Commander-in-Chief of the Armed Forces of Ukraine Syrsky announced on social ** that in order to avoid the encirclement of the Ukrainian army and protect the Ukrainian officers and soldiers, he decided to withdraw the Ukrainian army from Avdeyevka in eastern Ukraine to a more favorable line of defense for defensive operations.
* It is believed that on the second anniversary of the escalation of the Ukrainian crisis, the capture of Avdeyevka is the biggest change on the front line since the Russian army captured Artyomovsk, a key transportation point in May last year. Analysts pointed out that the Russian side is currently on a fierce offensive, and the Ukrainian side is in a shortage of ammunition due to the delay in the arrival of US and Western military aid, causing Avdeyevka to change hands. Russia has the initiative on the battlefield, but there is still uncertainty about the future.
Russian troops control key areas.
Avdeyevka is located 15 km north of the city of Donetsk. In the eight years between the outbreak of the Ukrainian crisis in 2014 and the escalation of the crisis in 2022, the Ukrainian army built a large number of fortifications in Avdeyevka. Russia's "Viewpoint" newspaper said that the Ukrainian army has made Avdeyevka the forward position of the second line of defense in the Donbas region, and it is one of the main defense areas of the Ukrainian army in this region.
Since the beginning of October last year, the Russian army has launched a new large-scale offensive against the Ukrainian army's defense lines in Avdeyevka, Kupyansk, Maryinka, and **mut in eastern Ukraine.
*The Ministry of Defense posted on social media on the evening of the 17th that Shoigu reported to Putin on the same day that the Russian army had fully controlled the city of Avdeyevka, and was currently taking measures to continue to clear the Ukrainian army personnel in the city and surround the Ukrainian troops still stranded in the Avdeyevka coking plant. He said that taking control of Avdeyevka allows the front line to move away from the city of Donetsk, which significantly reduces the threat of an attack by the Ukrainian army on the city of Donetsk.
Syrsky said that the Ukrainian army stationed in Avdeyevka has fulfilled its combat mission, causing serious losses to the best troops and equipment of the Russian army. After the move, the Ukrainian army is taking measures to stabilize the situation on the front line and consolidate new positions. The General Staff of the Armed Forces of Ukraine posted on social ** on the morning of the 18th that the Ukrainian army is still fighting in the Avdeyevka direction.
The Ukrainian army is "hungry for ammunition".
Analysts believe that the Russian offensive is fierce, which makes Ukrainian combat units exhausted, and the shortage of ammunition on the Ukrainian side eventually leads to Avdeyevka changing hands. Alexander Tarnavsky, the commander of the Ukrainian army in charge of the defensive operation in Avdeyevka, posted on social ** in the early morning of the 17th that under the Russian army's 10-to-1 artillery superiority and continuous bombardment, withdrawal is the only correct choice for the Ukrainian army.
Austrian military expert Colonel Markus Reisner analyzed that the "hunger for ammunition" is increasingly becoming a serious problem for the Ukrainian army, mainly due to the bipartisan dispute in the US Congress. In addition, the European Union, which originally planned to deliver 1 million artillery shells to Ukraine by March, can now only provide half of them, which has had an impact on the war situation. According to Ukrainian media reports, the Ukrainian combat commander said that the ammunition of the Ukrainian army stationed in Avdeyevka was exhausted, and in the harsh winter environment, the artillery failure rate was high.
There are also analysts who say that the Ukrainian side chose to announce the withdrawal of troops from Avdeyevka during the Munich Security Conference, hoping to take the opportunity to pressure the West to "unlock" military aid. Ukraine**Zelensky said in a speech at the meeting on the 17th that there is a "deficit" in the ** provided by Ukraine, especially ammunition and long-range**, and US aid is "crucial".
However, regarding military aid to Ukraine, the Democratic and Republican parties in the United States have different opinions. When Biden communicated with Zelensky on the 17th, he accused Congress of inaction in aid to Ukraine and stressed that Congress needs to approve the White House's request for special appropriations as soon as possible.
CNN reported that the ** launched by the Ukrainian army last year is facing many difficulties, and the willingness of Western countries to aid Ukraine is also wavering. Despite repeated pressure from the White House, there is still great uncertainty about whether congressional Republicans can approve military aid to Ukraine. As the conflict in Gaza has escalated over the past few months, there are concerns that Ukraine's importance in Western foreign affairs is declining.
The fighting remains uncertain.
The New York Times published an article analyzing that Avdeyevka is an important key point in Ukraine's defense system, and the loss of the place can be described as a "strategic and symbolic double blow" for the Ukrainian army. The Russian army's control of the area creates opportunities for it to effectively mobilize troops and equipment, and may turn its attention to the city of Pokrovsk (called the Red Army City in Russian), the logistics hub of the Ukrainian army in the northwest.
The Institute for the Study of War, a U.S. think tank, released an analysis report on the 17th, saying that the delay in Western countries' military aid to Ukraine may further seriously restrict the Ukrainian army's air defense capability, so that the Russian army can replicate the close air support that played an important role in the Avdeyevka war.
However, the future of the war remains unclear. Rob Lee, a senior fellow at the Eurasia Program at the Foreign Policy Institute, a US think tank, said: "The key question is how much the Ukrainian army has paid for this retreat and the strength of the Ukrainian army's next line of defense." ”
Nikolai Biliyeskov, a military analyst at the Ukrainian Institute of National Strategic Studies, pointed out that the Russian army will have a certain initiative after taking control of Avdeyevka, but it is also facing a shortage of personnel and equipment, and the progress of the Russian army in the city may not be transformed into a major victory in the entire war situation.
Another Ukrainian analyst believes that the withdrawal of troops from Avdeyevka will not shake the entire defense line of the Ukrainian army in the east. On the one hand, the Ukrainian side will continue to use the second line of defense to organize defenses and counterattacks; On the other hand, this withdrawal reflects the combat strategy of the Ukrainian army in the new stage, and the Ukrainian army will mainly use drones, electronic warfare equipment and fortifications to maximize the consumption of the Russian army and hit the opponent's logistics supply, rather than competing with the Russian army on the frontal battlefield. (Participating reporter: Deng Xianlai).