In June 23, there was a national swine fever.
I thought that the price of pork in the second half of the year would be a large ** wave, but I didn't expect that the price of pork is still "cabbage price" now.
According to common sense, the stock of the market should not be so large, but from the second half of 23 years, except for the swine fever in the month or two, the price of pork has risen a little.
After that, it did not rise but fell, which made the farmers who raised pigs in the countryside go crazy.
The Korean pork ** next door has risen to 72 yuan per catty.
In Japan, it can also be sold for 65 yuan per catty.
Why restrict exports if our market is overcapacity, and the country also imports 100,000 tons of raw pork from Spain.
In the first half of the year, imports from various countries amounted to 2.94 million tons.
Not only that, but this year's pig feed raw materials, corn and soybean meal, have risen by 10%.
The price of everything has gone up, but the price of pork has not increased.
Moreover, in the second half of the year, the state will not accept pork, so much pork is circulating in the market, and there are obvious signs of expansion.
If you don't even understand this, then do something else as soon as possible.
Then there is another option, which is to hold back and not throw, and wait for the ** to rise before throwing.
Do you think this kind of thing the country did not think of? It must have been estimated a long time ago, and according to estimates, even if it endures the price increase in the later stage, it will only be a break-even.
Someone has already calculated this account for you.
At the end of June 23, the national pig herd was 43.9 billion heads, up another 3 million heads in July.
There is no growth figure in the second half of the year that is less than this number.
Therefore, in this case, the economic argument is that the greater the demand, the more expensive it is, because pigs have to eat grain every day.
So the more pigs, the more expensive the grain.
To put it another way, pork is grain.
According to the relationship between supply and demand, one pound of pork should be less than or equal to five pounds of grain, which is a healthy state.
For a large food-hungry country like ours, grain only has a share of imports, not exports.
In this case, it depends on the family background of the pig factory owner, and whoever drags it out to the end can **.
Not only that, but whoever can use the least amount of grain to make pork grow without losing the meat is the winner.
That's a good way to sort out a logical chain.
There are too many pigs in the country, and he consumes too much grain, and if this continues, it will affect the stock of grain.
In this case, there are too many enterprises, or self-employed people with capital, who have entered the pig market.
This has led to an imbalance between supply and demand in the country.
So the state stopped collecting pork, let the market continue to inflate, and then took the opportunity to squeeze small and medium-sized pig farms.
After these small and medium-sized pig farms with light capital were cleared, the domestic supply and demand of grain and pork were balanced.
The ** of pork has also risen.
China is so big, and the market is so rolled, if pork exports are opened, then this aspect will be rolled abroad.
This will lead to a disguised outflow of food, which will lead to a food crisis in the country.
Don't look at the peace we are now, if there is a food crisis, it will be more terrible than starting a war.
We always see terrible scenes of famine in the history books, but if you ask grandparents over 60 years old, how they lived during the famine years, they will know how terrible they are.
So it's not a good choice to do a few hundred of these medium-sized pig farms now.
But you can choose to breed dozens of traditional black pigs in small quantities
Because at this stage, it is more suitable for large-scale pig farms, as well as pig raising with people.
He has the blessing of heavy capital in a large pig farm, and if he has no money, he will have someone to continue his life, to put it bluntly, he can afford to lose it.
Individual breeding, he raised a small number, and the traditional pig disease resistance and low input cost, long cycle, he is not under the logic of this big market.
The existing domestic response is mainly to squeeze the pig farms in the middle and downstream to get them out.
Squeezing them out of the country will keep food security beyond the red line.
So the ultimate goal is to protect food from being wasted.
At present, domestic pork is still cheap, that is to say, all pig farms are still in the tug-of-war stage, and I personally expect that by May next year, everyone will consume almost.
Even if he had the heart to keep that batch of pigs, waiting for the peak season to come, he would not have that stockpile.
But I always feel that even if you can drag it out to the end, you can only guarantee that you will not lose the result.
Good luck if you are a pig factory owner.