The year 2024 marks the 75th anniversary of the founding of the People's Republic of China and is a crucial year for achieving the goals and tasks of the 14th Five-Year Plan. It is necessary to adhere to the general tone of the work of seeking progress while maintaining stability, implement the requirements of seeking progress while maintaining stability, promoting stability with progress, and establishing first and then breaking down, effectively enhance economic vitality, prevent and resolve risks, improve social expectations, consolidate and enhance the positive trend of economic recovery, continue to improve people's livelihood and well-being, and maintain the overall harmony and stability of society. It is necessary to further deepen the reform in an all-round way, focus on breaking down the deep-seated institutional and institutional obstacles and structural contradictions, and fully stimulate the vitality of entrepreneurship, innovation and creativity in the whole societyIt will inject strong impetus into the promotion of Chinese-style modernization, so that the Chinese-style modernization will overcome obstacles and move forward.
Bureau of Statistics:January,CPI fell 08%, 03%。Among them, food *** 04%, year-on-year, pork ** decreased by 173%, affecting the CPI to drop by about 025 percentage points; PPI decreased by 02%, down 2 percent year-on-year5%。
Up to now, more than 20 provinces, including Beijing, Shanghai, Tianjin, Chongqing, Guangdong, Jiangsu, Shandong, Zhejiang, Sichuan and Henan, have deployed or carried out work related to visiting and serving listed companiesNearly 230 A-share listed companies were surveyed and visitedIt covers manufacturing, finance, real estate, transportation, medicine, new energy and other industries.
Macroeconomics
1. Central Bank:Guide the reasonable growth and balanced allocation of credit, maintain reasonable and abundant liquidity, and keep the scale of social financing and the amount of money matching the expected targets of economic growth and the highest level. We will continue to deepen the market-oriented reform of interest rates, and further improve the interest rate formation mechanism of the loan marketGive full play to the role of the market-oriented adjustment mechanism of deposit interest rates, and promote the steady and moderate decline of comprehensive social financing costs.
2. Ministry of Education:The Regulations on the Administration of Off-campus Training (Draft for Solicitation of Comments) were issued. Off-campus training shall be arranged outside of the teaching hours of primary and secondary schools at the location of the trainingNational statutory holidays, rest days, and winter and summer vacations must not be used to organize academic training in the compulsory education phase. Extracurricular training establishments must not organize or participate in the organization of grade examinations or competitions for primary and secondary school students and preschool children between the ages of 3 and 6, and must not publish the academic performance and rankings of the trainees.
3. CCTV News:On February 7, train tickets were sold before February 21, and 1296 passengers were sent by railways across the country50,000 people,Tickets are on sale for 142090,000 sheets; On February 8, the national railway passenger flow maintained a high level of operation, and it is expected to send 12.5 million passengers, and arrange for 1,900 additional passenger trains.
Real estate dynamics
1. CITIC**:The commercial housing market will gradually focus entirely on the demand for improved housing. In the context of the overall increasing supply of housing, there is no possibility of commercial housing as a whole. In the short term, the construction of a new model of real estate development will also be established first and then broken, and the demand-side policies for the real estate market, such as the reduction of mortgage loan interest rates and the liberalization of purchase restrictions, are gradually advancing. The second quarter of 2024 is expected to usher in a plateau period when industry fundamentals are stabilizing, and house prices will not continue to last**.
2. Zhengzhou City, Henan Province:Conduct a thorough investigation of the real estate projects under construction in the city, according to the list of real estate projects that can be given financing support reported by various development zones and districts and counties (cities).Establish a list of real estate projects that can be given financial support. and feedback to the special class office. Strengthen information sharing, and provide relevant financial institutions with information on project construction and operation, pre-sale fund supervision, etc. in a timely manner.
3. Nanjing City, Jiangsu Province: Cancel the restriction on social security payment for not less than 12 months. The two basic indicators of "insurance participation" and "period of residence" are adjusted from "ladder" to "fixed", so that the score of social security payment period and continuous residence period accounts for the main proportion, simplifies the calculation method of points, and improves the convenience of settlement.
Stocktaking
On Thursday, the Shanghai Composite Index was at 286590 points, **128%, with a turnover of 48294 billion. The Shenzhen Stock Exchange Component Index was reported at 882060 points, **129%, with a turnover of 53452.3 billion. GEM index reported 172686 points, **116%, with a turnover of 21953.5 billion. Overall, there were more than 4,800 stocks in the two cities, and the turnover of the two cities was 1,017.4 billion, a decrease of 4.5 billion from the previous trading day. On the disk, plastic products, Internet services, instrumentation, software development, semiconductors, special equipment, etc. rose highly, and only the banking sector **. Northbound funds are net **58.3 billion yuan, including 31.8 million yuan in Shanghai-Hong Kong Stock Connect and 5.5 million yuan in Shenzhen-Hong Kong Stock Connect5.1 billion yuan.
On Thursday, the Hang Seng Index fell 127% at 1587807 o'clock. The Hang Seng Tech Index fell 069% at 316855。The state-owned enterprises index fell 113% at 536008 o'clock. On the disk, entertainment, software, intelligent medical care, cultural media and other sectors are more active; Real estate services, CXO concepts, lottery concept stocks, ground transportation, life science tools and other sectors are relatively sluggish. Southbound funds are net **45HK$9.1 billion. Among them, Hong Kong Stock Connect (Shanghai) net **29HK$9 billion, Hong Kong Stock Connect (Shenzhen) net **16HK$0.1 billion.
As of February 8, there were 244 listed companies on the Beijing Stock Exchange, and there were no new ones on the same day. The total market capitalization is 34596.7 billion yuan, with a turnover of 776.2 billion yuan.
4. Financing balance of the two cities:As of February 7, the financing balance of the Shanghai Stock Exchange was reported at 74201.9 billion yuan, a decrease of 63$1.4 billion; The financing balance of the Shenzhen Stock Exchange was reported at 6491200 million yuan, a decrease of 68 from the previous trading day$2.9 billion; The total of the two cities is 139113.9 billion yuan, a decrease of 131 from the previous trading day4.3 billion yuan.
5. Financial headlines app:On February 8, the turnover of many CSI 2000 ETFs increased significantly, and the turnover of Huatai Pineapple CSI 2000 ETF was 556.6 billion yuan, and the turnover of CSI 2000 ETF also exceeded 106.4 billion yuan,The daily turnover reached a record high. In addition, the turnover of Wanjia CNI 2000 ETF was 6$3.6 billion, also a record high.
6. Brokerage China: The China Securities Regulatory Commission announced on February 6 that it would suspend the scale of new refinancing bonds, which is powerful and rapid. On February 7, the first day of the new policy, there were only 5 refinancing transactions in the whole market, compared with more than 6,000 transactions on the same day at the highest last week. The number of shares lent out of refinancing securities also dropped sharply, and on February 7, only 21380,000 shares, while last week one day melted 1800 million shares.
7. EVE Energy:The company recently received a notice from the controlling shareholder EVE Holdings, and learned that EVE Holdings pledged part of the company's shares held by EVE HoldingsThe total number of pledged shares is 17.5 million shares.
8. Zhongqingbao:The company recently received a letter from the controlling shareholder Baode Technology, and learned that part of the company's shares held by it have been pledged for businessThe number of shares pledged this time is 1.06 million shares.
Wealth Focus
1. China Securities News:The emergence of products such as Huabei Borrowing, Jingdong Baitiao, and Meituan Borrowing Money,Make the credit card market more and more competitive. Some banks are adopting the "alliance" model to attract customers to apply for credit cards with high-value gifts in popular business districts or office buildings.
2. World ** Association: The global physical ** ETF will outflow for the eighth consecutive month at the beginning of 2024Outflows in January amounted to about $2.8 billion. At the same time, due to the outflow of ETFs and the gold price of **1% in the month, its total AUM also fell by 2% to US$210 billion. Overall, North America leads the way in outflows, and Europe continues to be substantial.
3. Financial breakfast:Hot spots out non-stop, track what you want to hear. With the Year of the Dragon just around the corner, how is the Chinese New Year celebrated around the world as the Chinese New Year being designated as a United Nations holiday, further enriching the global significance of the Spring Festival? What are the new tricks for this year's New Year goods procurement? What do young people think of the "sense of ceremony" of the New Year? Wealthy friends, quickly row to the end of the article to view today's financial secretary tracking The Year of the Dragon is in full swing
Industry Watch
1. Passenger Association:January 2024,Passenger car production and retail sales completed 20210,000 and 20350,000 vehiclesA year-on-year increase of 500% and 574%。Among them, the output and retail sales of new energy vehicles were 7340,000 and 6680,000 units, an increase of 85 y/y1% and 1018%。
2. **Times:In 2023, the performance of the display panel industry will generally decline. From the point of view of the reasons, it is mainly due to the pressure on the terminal demand of consumer electronics and the large fluctuation of the panel. In 2023, the display panel industry will be at the bottom, and it will continue to grow in 2024 and 2025, especially the limited new production capacity, which has paved the way for healthy competition in the industry in the future. At the same time,The competition in the industry is slowing down, and enterprises will pay more attention to stable operation and profits.
3. Lighthouse Pro:As of 12:42 on February 8,The total pre-sale box office of new films in the 2024 Spring Festival will exceed 400 million;"Flying Life 2", "Hot and Hot" and "Article 20" are temporarily among the top three in the pre-sale box office of new films during the Spring Festival.
4. **Energy Bureau:Improve the trading mechanism of the peak shaving market. In areas where the electricity spot market operates continuously, improve the rules of the spot market, appropriately relax the market price limit, and guide the realization of peak regulation functions, and markets with similar functions such as peak regulation, peak regulation, and peak regulation capacity will no longer operate。 In principle, the upper limit of peak shaving services** shall not be higher than the feed-in tariff of local parity new energy projects。
5. **Times:Since 2024,The overseas demand of the tire industry is strong, and the orders of tire companies are full. This Spring Festival of the Year of the Dragon, the upstream and downstream of the tire industry chain ushered in a busy holiday, and rushing to work has become the new normal of the industry.
6. Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs:Recently, there has been a wide range of rain, snow and freezing weather in China. From the field investigation and evaluation, agricultural dispatch and the comprehensive research and judgment of the situation reflected in various places, this round of rain, snow and freezing weather caused winter rape and winter wheat to be frozen in some areasHowever, it did not change the fundamentals of good grain and oil production in the summer.
7. The Paper: Fudan University has developed a new calcium-oxygen batteryIt can be charged and discharged at room temperature, and can operate stably for 700 cycles, which has the advantages of high flexibility, high safety and low cost. The battery can also be made into flexible fibers and woven for use in textile batteries for next-generation wearable systems.
8. China Railway Group:On February 8, the 14th day of the Spring Festival, the national railway is expected to send 12.5 million passengers and add 1,900 passenger trainsSince the Spring Festival this year, the capacity has reached a new high. On February 7, the national railway sent 1296 passengers50,000 passengers, railway transportation remained safe, stable and orderly.
9. Five departments including the Ministry of Commerce:Encourage qualified enterprises to establish public exhibition and trading centers and overseas warehouses in key markets. Make full use of all kinds of first-class promotion platforms to support enterprises to expand overseas market channels. Encourage innovation in the export marketing model of second-hand cars, and actively explore the construction of second-hand car export e-commerce platforms, auction platforms, etc.
10. Cui Dongshu, Secretary-General of the Passenger Association:Looking forward to the national passenger car market in February 2024, due to the impact of weak automobile consumption before and after the Spring Festival holiday, most car companies will take a few more days of annual leave before and after the Spring Festival, so the effective production and sales time in February this year is very shortIt is expected that the sales volume of the auto market in February will be at the absolute bottom of the year.
11. PetroChina:In January 2024, the industry chain of China Oil and Gas and support services operated smoothly and efficiently, the main production and operation indicators maintained a steady improvement, and the total profit and net profit both achieved a significant year-on-year increase. Domestic oil and gas production equivalent hit a record high**, natural gas production is exceeding the planned operation; Overseas oil and gas production equity production equivalent increased year-on-year.
12. Japan Automobile Importers Association:In January, Japan's EV imports increased by 11% year-on-year to 1,186 units, marking the second consecutive month of growth. Among them,BYD's monthly sales increased six-fold year-on-yearIt accounted for 20% of the market, ranking second.
13、counterpoint：India's smartphone shipments in 2023 will be stable, reaching 15.2 billion units. Samsung topped the list in 2023 with an 18% share, reaching the top for the first time since 2017. Vivo is in second place in 2023 with a 17% share. Xiaomi slipped to third place in 2023. Apple's shipments exceeded the 10 million mark.
Company news
1. Microsoft:It will work with Indian startup SAROVAM AI,Enables voice-based generative AI application development. SARVAM AI is building generative AI models for Indian languages and contexts and will now create solutions on Microsoft's cloud services.
2. Hilton Group:Net income for the full year 2023 reached 11$5.1 billion, fourth-quarter net income of $1$500 million; Capital gains for the full year 2024 are expected to be close to $3 billion. 143 new hotels opened in Asia PacificIn the fourth quarter, 45 new hotels opened, a record high.
3. McKinsey: A warning has been issued to about 3,000 advisers at the companyCall their performance unsatisfactory and need to be improved. The company has rated the employees as "worried" when evaluating their performance in recent months. Employees who receive this rating typically have about three months to improve their performance. If that can't be done, some of them may start to be advised to leave.
4. Maersk:For the full year of 2023, it will achieve revenue of 5106.5 billion US dollars, a year-on-year decrease of 374%；EBITDA is 95US$9.1 billion, down 7.3 billion year-on-year95%。The maritime industry is expected to face significant overcapacity in 2024There is still a great deal of uncertainty about the duration and extent of the disruption in the Red Sea.
Global Vision
1. Every warp network:Demand has been weakened by unusually mild winter weatherFor the first time in nearly 11 months, U.S. natural gas** closed below $2 per million UK thermal units. This is the first time since March 2023 that the settlement price of the front-month contract has fallen below the $2 mark, and it also highlights the tragic situation of US natural gas in the past year.
2. Bloomberg: Japanese investors bought a record amount of U.S. sovereign bonds in 2023. The Bank of Japan (BOJ) is paving the way for interest rate hikes amid concerns that Japan** may sell US bonds to repatriate funds, but Japanese investors' net purchases of US bonds still reached 18 trillion yen.
3. CCTV News: South Korean prosecutors appealed the first-instance verdict in the case of Samsung Electronics Chairman Lee Jae-yong on suspicion of illegally inheriting management rights. On February 5, the Seoul** District Court of South Korea made a first-instance judgment on the case of Lee Jae-yong, chairman of Samsung Electronics, on suspicion of illegally inheriting the management right, finding that Lee Jae-yong had no illegal behavior in the process of inheriting the management right, and pronounced him not guilty.
Financial data
Domestic
On February 8, a total of 6,221 companies were listed, an increase of 2 on the same day, and the turnover was 10.8 billion. The three boards into the index reported 89878，Up 079%，The turnover is 07 billion.
2. Domestic commodities**:As of the afternoon of February 8**, most closed higherJujubes rose more than 6%.Shanghai tin rose more than 3%, iron ore, coke, coking coal, and fuel oil rose more than 2%, and * ferrosilicon, Shanghai nickel, eggs, peanuts, and beans rose more than 1%. Caustic soda fell more than 2%, and lithium carbonate fell more than 1%.
3. Treasury bonds:On February 8, the main contract of 2-year treasury bonds** TS2403 stabilized at 101268；The main 5-year Treasury bond ** contract TF2403 fell 008% to 102595；The main contract of 10-year treasury bond ** T2403 fell 017% to 103250。The 10-year Treasury rate rose 226 bp, to 244%；The interest rate on the 10-year CDB bond rose by 175 bp, to 261%。
4. Shanghai International Energy Exchange:On February 8, the main contract was 2404, with 5771 yuan barrel**, 106 yuan,The increase was 187%。All contracts traded 156992 lots, and the open interest decreased by 2,503 lots to 32,265 lots. The main contract traded 42,925 lots, and the open interest increased by 1,836 lots to 15,258 lots.
5. Central Bank:On February 8, a 7-day reverse repurchase operation of 90 billion yuan was carried out on the same day, and the winning interest rate was 180%, the same as before; A 14-day reverse repurchase operation of 255 billion yuan was carried out, and the winning interest rate was 195%, the same as before. Due to the expiration of 43 billion yuan of 7-day reverse repurchase on the same day, a net investment of 302 billion yuan was realized on the same day.
6、shibor：Overnight 16970%，*1.90 basis points. 7-day report 17910%，*15.60 basis points. 3 months report 23340%，*0.80 basis points.
7. RMB:The onshore yuan was quoted at 7 against the US dollar at 16:30**1961, down 00417%, the central price of RMB was reported at 71063, down 00197%。
8. Shanghai Environmental Exchange:On February 8, the trading volume of carbon emission allowance listing agreements in the national carbon market was 5 tons, with a turnover of 0040,000 yuan, **price 7467 yuan ton, up 0%.
abroad
9. Asia: Nikkei 225 index rose 206%，3686328 o'clock. South Korea's KOSPI index rose 041%，262032 points.
10. U.S. stocks: The Dow closed up 013%，3872633 points; The Nasdaq closed up 024%，1579371 points; The S&P 500 closed up 006%，499791 points.
11. Europe:Britain's FTSE 100 closed down 044% at 759548 points; Germany's DAX30 closed up 025%，1696383 points; France's CAC40 closed up 071%，766563 points.
The settlement price of COMEX in April closed down 02% at 2046$9 oz.
13. **WTI closed up 3 in March19%，Report 76$22 barrel. Brent closed up 305%，81$63 barrel.
14. Baltic Dry Bulk Index:down 094% at 1,473 points.
The Year of the Dragon
China**:Not long ago,The 78th session of the United Nations General Assembly adopted a resolution by consensus to designate the Spring Festival (Lunar New Year) as a United Nations holiday. This further enriches the world significance of the Spring Festival and provides an opportunity for more people to get closer to China, taste China, and experience China. As the footsteps of the Spring Festival approach, overseas travelers and overseas Chinese around the world are celebrating the Chinese New Year in various ways, and many foreign friends are also infected by this festive atmosphere, participating in the activities of celebrating the Chinese New Year and feeling the charm of the Chinese New Year. On February 3, local time, a group of children performed drumming at the Spring Festival Flower Market in San Francisco, USA. At the annual Chinese New Year Flower Market in San Francisco's Chinatown, residents and tourists can not only buy a variety of festive goods, but also enjoy Chinese folk performances such as dragon and lion dances.
China News Service:Approaching the Spring Festival,Electronic New Year's goods have become a new choice for contemporary Chinese young people to stock up for the Spring Festival. What is e-New Year? Virtual goods that can provide emotional value during the Spring Festival can be called electronic New Year's goods. In the search of social **, it was found that the entry of "young people rectifying the New Year's goods circle" sparked heated discussions. Netizens have said, "Electronic New Year's goods are cost-effective, new trends and new atmosphere", "loving yourself is the true meaning of buying New Year's goods", "Don't lose traditional things during the New Year, but also keep up with the times, accept and enjoy the things brought by high technology". More netizens posted their "four-piece sets" of electronic New Year's goods for the Spring Festival, which are WeChat Red Envelope Covers for the Year of the Dragon, Mobile New Year's Wallpapers, New Year's Emojis and members of various ** platforms.
Xinhuanet:There's nothing like "buy, buy, buy" to reflect trends. Recently,Many netizens planted grass for the New Year's goods related to "dragons". Some people prepared "dragon" Hanfu, dragon horn hats, and dragon boots for the children at home; Someone ordered a Year of the Dragon special; Some people queue up to buy stamps for the Year of the Dragon and limited cultural and creative products for the Year of the Dragon; Someone updated the "Year of the Dragon**" Year of the Dragon sweatshirt, the Year of the Dragon custom lipstick, the Year of the Dragon bag, the Year of the Dragon down jacket ......The consumption of the "dragon" tornado breeds new opportunities, and merchants smell the business opportunities from the L people, and launch a variety of New Year's goods related to the "dragon". From the tip of the tongue to the fingertips, from food, clothing, housing and transportation to entertainment consumption, from material consumption to cultural consumption, the New Year has not yet arrived, and holiday consumption has been full of heat, and the New Year's goods have been stacked up to create a steaming Chinese New Year.
China Youth Daily:A survey of 1,333 young people showed that94.1% of the young people surveyed will adhere to the traditional customs of the Chinese New Year, 767% of the young people surveyed pay attention to the "sense of ceremony" of the New YearFamily reunion for Chinese New Year's Eve dinner is the most important manifestation of the "sense of ceremony" of the New Year among the young people interviewed. Although there are great differences in the specific forms of festivals in various places, in general, the main contents are to worship the ancestors and respect the elderly, give thanksgiving and pray for blessings, family reunions, remove the old and cloth the new, welcome the jubilee and receive blessings, and pray for a good year, and the folk customs are also similar including drinking Laba porridge, worshipping the god of Vesta, sweeping dust, pasting Spring Festival Lian, pasting New Year paintings, pasting blessing characters upside down, keeping the New Year on Chinese New Year's Eve, eating dumplings, pressing New Year's money, greeting the New Year, visiting temple fairs, etc. The charm of the Spring Festival lies in the fact that it has a rich content of traditional customs, and because of these customs, the Spring Festival is full of "ritual".