The Spring Festival was launched, and pig prices ushered in the first wave! This time, we will take concrete measures
Since the end of January, pig prices have begun**.
Halfway through the year, it was still declining, falling to"6 word mark", even lower than last year's low.
In the second half of the year, pig prices began to fluctuate frequently, up a few days, down a few days, the frequency of rotation is getting higher and higher, and the pig price is also gradually increasing in this frequent up and down rotation.
Recently, pig prices are being pressed"up"key, not only back"7 prefixes", and it's starting to approach 75 yuan catty, right"$8"The meaning also has a lot of impact.
The market is also surprised and pleased with this growth.
Of course, the good thing is that the price of pigs has finally risen, and many of the increases are not small, up to six or seven cents, but at the same time, some people are worried that this is again"It was short-lived"。
Previously, we also had some opinions, mainly that pork ** should set off a wave before the year*** The most likely time period is around the Spring Festival.
Judging from the market performance so far, it is also in line with this expectation.
So, why yes"Spring"This?
Strictly speaking, the Spring Festival has little to do with pig prices, but judging from the data of the past two years, with the opening of the Spring Festival, pig prices have an obvious trend.
If anything, it's probably because the start of the Chinese New Year means that travelers are starting to embark on their journey home, and families are starting to buy New Year's goods.
Of course, the main product of the New Year is pork.
Don't look at the unsatisfactory expenses of the secondary department, but the Chinese New Year's Eve dinner is still the main event.
In fact, the performance of downstream consumption confirms this.
First of all, as the Chinese New Year approaches, the market begins to bustle and pork is clearly a must-buy.
Many slaughterhouses also reported that the speed of white strip products has indeed accelerated recently, and consumption has played a role in promoting it to a certain extent.
Secondly, the amount of ** released in the market has not increased significantly.
On the one hand, it is approaching the holiday, many large enterprises have completed the annual slaughter plan, and then the willingness to slaughter is not high, as the holiday is approaching, the production capacity has begun to tighten, and the resistance to transportation has increased, so the pig ** has not been significantly released.
The pressure on supply and demand seems to have gradually eased, so pig prices have also responded**.
However, judging from the performance of the previous two years, although pig prices skyrocketed after the Spring Festival opened, the duration was relatively short.
This feature is expected to be even more pronounced this year.
On the one hand, the absence of a large release** is only temporary, and the possibility of subsequent release remains.
Due to the price of pigs**, coupled with the fact that it is recognized as the off-season after the Chinese New Year, many farmers intend to slaughter pigs before the end of the year, so the pressure to continue slaughtering is still not small.
Even if market consumption continues and there is a situation of both supply and demand, it is likely that the increase in demand is less than the increase in demand, which will continue to suppress pig prices.
On the other hand, consumption expectations are likely to continue to be worse than in previous years.
Consumption is changing, consumption structure is changing, and people's consumption habits are also changing.
In the past, we could only eat meat during the Chinese New Year, but nowadays, big fish and meat have become almost commonplace, so people are not as keen on pork as they used to be.
In this case, coupled with the fact that the overall consumption momentum is still insufficient, the growth of pork consumption will also become limited.
It can be said that the Spring Festival is the Spring Festival"Special trains", and at the same time, the second senior brother and the last class of this year's Spring Festival"Shuttle"。
Because after the Spring Festival, the annual off-season for pork consumption begins, and you must know that the peak season is not prosperous, let alone the off-season.
Therefore, this may be the last chance for pig prices before the end of the year.
This wave is indeed on the rise, but it is also true that it is short-lived.
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