In the field of global chip manufacturing, the Dutch company ASML is known for its leading lithography machine technology.
In recent years, however, the once-glamorous business has struggled. In the third quarter of 2023, ASML received only 3 orders for EUV lithography machines, well below market expectations. Behind this dismal situation is the consequence of ASML's decision to turn away from the Chinese market.
China has long been one of ASML's largest sales markets, contributing tens of billions or even tens of billions of yuan in revenue every year.
However, when the United States launched restrictions on Chinese chips, ASML chose to side with the United States and restricted the export of lithography machines to the Chinese market. This disregard for self-interest has not only disappointed the Chinese market, but also put ASML itself in a difficult situation.
As the world's only lithography equipment manufacturer that can be used for large-scale production of advanced process chips below 7 nanometers, ASML's technical strength is undoubted.
However, with the decline of the global chip market, ASML's export sales have also fallen into a slump. Due to the inability to provide high-end chip lithography machines in Chinese mainland, ASML focused its sales on Japan, South Korea and Taiwan.
However, chipmakers in these regions have also been affected by U.S. sanctions, which have led to a decline in chip sales and a reduction in production capacity, which in turn has reduced the demand for lithography machines.
ASML's predicament is not accidental, but an inevitable consequence of its departure from the Chinese market. The importance of the Chinese market to ASML is self-evident, but ASML has chosen to restrict exports to the Chinese market under pressure from the United States.
This short-sighted behavior not only deprived ASML of huge demand in the Chinese market, but also challenged its position in the global market.
Ironically, although ASML has restricted the export of lithography machines to the Chinese market, the demand in the Chinese market remains. It is expected that in the next five years, the demand for EUV lithography machines in Chinese mainland will reach 40 units or more. However, due to ASML's restrictive policies, the deal that could have been facilitated was cut down.
Today, ASML is in the embarrassing situation of "having goods and nowhere to sell".
On the one hand, it has leading lithography machine technology, but it cannot sell its products to the Chinese market, which is most needed;
On the other hand, the downturn in the global chip market has also seriously affected its export sales. Faced with such a dilemma, it remains to be seen whether ASML will re-examine its strategy for the Chinese market.
Moreover, for the Chinese market, the pace of progress will not stop because of ASML's restrictions. A number of domestic enterprises and scientific research institutions are working hard to tackle EUV lithography machine technology in order to break the foreign monopoly and achieve independent control.
As the R&D progress continues to advance, time is running out for ASML. If ASML continues to adhere to its strategy of turning its back on the Chinese market, its position in the global market may face greater challenges in the future.