Tianfeng ** shares *** Liu Yiding recently conducted research on Shenhuo shares and released a research report "Coal and Aluminum Dual Main Business, Strong Profitability", this report gives ** rating to Shenhuo shares, believing that its target price is 23$20, the current share price is 1824 yuan, the expected range of ** is 2719%。
Shenhuo shares (000933).
Coal and aluminum are the industry leaders, and the industrial chain layout is perfect. After years of development, the company has formed a relatively complete coal-fired aluminum industry chain. 1) Electrolytic aluminum: The company currently has an electrolytic aluminum production capacity of 1.7 million tons (800,000 tons in Xinjiang + 900,000 tons in Yunnan), and the integration of raw materials continues to improve, with a prebaked anode production capacity of 400,000 tons in Xinjiang and its own 4*350MW coal-fired power generation units; Build an anode production capacity of 400,000 tons in Yunnan to give full play to the synergistic effect of the industrial chain. 2) Aluminum foil: The company currently has 140,000 tons of aluminum foil production capacity, the main products include food packaging foil and battery aluminum foil, Yunnan new materials 110,000 tons of aluminum foil project is in the early stage, is expected to form 250,000 tons of production capacity in the next 2-3 years. 3) Coal: The company has a coal production capacity of 8.55 million tons, mainly located in Yongcheng and Xuchang, Henan, with a coal output of 3.8 million tons in 23H1. With the company's vigorous promotion of the Liangbei Coal Preparation Plant reconstruction and expansion project and the Liuhe Coal Mine Storage Expansion Project, coal output will achieve steady growth.
High earnings drive significant balance sheet repair. The company's revenue and profit are mainly in the aluminum ingot and coal segments, and the profit is mainly driven by commodities. In recent years, bulk commodities such as coal and aluminum have driven the company's profits to increase significantly. 21 years ago, the company made a lot of impairment provisions, and the balance sheet was significantly repaired. In addition, in recent years, the company's asset-liability ratio has declined significantly, from more than 80% in 16-19 years to 63% in 23Q3.
Coal has a significant competitive advantage, and the supply and demand pattern is expected to be maintained. The company's coal products are mainly anthracite and lean coal, with competitive advantages such as excellent coal types and outstanding location advantages, and the selling price per ton and gross profit per ton are significantly better than those of its peers. In 2023, with the economic recovery and good overseas export demand, the domestic high-speed iron water production will form a support for the demand for coking coal and other coal types. Under the influence of factors such as safety and environmental protection supervision and changes in production geological conditions, it is difficult for coal mines to continue to maintain a high-intensity production rhythm, and it is expected that the basic pattern of tight balance in the coal market is expected to continue, which will support coal prices.
Electrolytic aluminum industry: ** restricted, steady increase in demand. 1) The ceiling of domestic electrolytic aluminum is about 45 million tons, and the current production capacity is close to the peak of 45.09 million tons, and the follow-up production capacity and output increment are limited. We believe that the current relatively weak overseas demand may make the willingness to resume production in Europe and the United States to reduce production capacity suffer, and the new overseas production capacity is mainly concentrated in Indonesia and other countries, and its production capacity may be limited by poor infrastructure conditions and power plant construction. In summary, the increase of domestic and overseas electrolytic aluminum** in the medium term is limited. 2) Demand: Electrolytic aluminum is mainly used in the fields of construction, real estate, transportation, electricity, consumer goods and machinery, accounting for 26%, 24%, 13%, 12% and 12% respectively. In 23 years, the cumulative area of domestic housing completions was +17% year-on-year, which significantly boosted the demand for aluminum real estate; Although the overall increase in the production of traditional automobiles in the transportation field is limited by the substitution of new energy vehicles, the amount of aluminum used in single vehicles may continue to increase. Traditional demand is more resilient than expected. In the field of new energy, the installed capacity of photovoltaics exceeded expectations during the year, and the high prosperity of production and sales of new energy vehicles provided more increments for aluminum demand. According to our estimates, the domestic demand for aluminum in the new energy field in 23 years may be 3-4%.
Profit** and investment advice: **23-25 years the company's net profit attributable to the parent company is 558/65.8/67.300 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of -2634%/+18.06%/+2.25%, the current market capitalization corresponds to PE of 8 6 6 times respectively. Referring to comparable company valuations, it gives 8X PE over 24 years with a target price of 232 yuan, the first cover is given a "** rating."
Risk warning: the project construction is not as expected; Product** volatility risk; the risk of insufficient power in Yunnan; security risks; Environmental risks.
*According to the calculation of the research report data released in the past three years, the research team of Lai Fuyang of Xingye ** has conducted in-depth research on the stock, and the average accuracy of the ** in the past three years is 7843%, and its **2023 attributable net profit is 593.5 billion, **PE converted according to the current price is 692。
The latest profit** breakdown is as follows:
A total of 12 institutions have rated the stock in the last 90 days, with **11 ratings and 1 overweight ratings. The average institutional price target over the last 90 days is 214。
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