The Fed collectively released "hawkishness", and the market even expected another interest rate hike? **Long and short direction is difficult to choose! The United States first mentioned a ceasefire in Gaza, and the Houthis threatened to escalate the situation in the Red Sea ......What thrills have you missed this week**?
Market expectations for the Fed's first rate cut this week continue to adjust, butInvestors are still waiting for more data and signals, so the dollar index has not received a significant boost, the overall ** downward and once fell below the 104 integer mark. As a result, the spot ** as a whole rose and rebounded after falling below the 2020 mark several times.
As the situation in the Middle East has not improved significantly, Yemen's Houthi rebels have threatened to escalate the situation in the Red SeaInternational oil prices this week as a whole showed a range**,In the middle of the session, it may be boosted by concerns about spot**, but the rally is difficult to sustain, and WTI** hits as high as 78$71 barrel, Brent** touched as high as 82$97 barrel.
In terms of non-US currencies, the Japanese yen this weekIt fell below the 150 psychological mark again, prompting verbal intervention by the Japanese authorities, but the market no longer seems to be buying easily. Thanks to:The expected tax cuts in the UK spring budget and their boost to the economy, GBP/USD has been trading for four consecutive trading days this week**, and once stood above 127, for the first time since the beginning of February.
Before the "halving" schedule arrivesBitcoin broke above $53,000 this week for the first time since December 2021, before narrowing its gains.
Under the influence of the Fed meeting minutes and hawkish comments from a number of Feds**, the market's expectations for interest rate cuts continue to adjust.
The minutes of the Federal Reserve's meeting, released this week, show that they think soThe policy rate may have reached its peak in the cycle, but most** are aware of the risk of cutting rates too soonSome** see the risk that inflation progress may stall. Participants noted that the economic outlook is uncertain, and they remainHigh focus on inflation risks。Market participants believeThe policy was significantly less restrictive than expectedThis could add unnecessary impetus to aggregate demand and stall inflationary progress.
In terms of shrinking the balance sheet, many ** said,It would be appropriate to start an in-depth discussion of the balance sheet at the next meeting. Some policymakers have said that slowing the pace of balance sheet reduction could allow the balance sheet reduction to last longer.
There are also a number of Feds** who have publicly expressed their views this week, evenCollectively "release eagles".
Fed Governor Bowman saidNow is "definitely not" the time to cut interest ratesThe property market does not hinder the decision to cut interest rates. Fed Governor Jefferson on the other handFears that overly loose policies could lead to a reversal or stagnation in the fight against inflation, thinksA rate cut later this year may be appropriate。Fed Governor Cook saidThe downward course of inflation is likely to be a constant twist and turnThe interest rate cut is a reflection of the adjustment of risk.
Richmond Fed President Barkin said the January data takes into account seasonalityYou should not place undue reliance on the information for that monthBusinesses are expected to raise prices, while CPI data confirms why the Fed needs more confidence on the issue of rate cuts. Atlanta Fed President Bostic notedThe preference is for a start to cut rates in the summer, with only two rate cuts still expected in 2024。San Francisco Fed President Daly arguesThree rate cuts are a reasonable benchmark for this year.
Philadelphia Fed President Harker pointed out even moreThe biggest risk is a premature rate cutThere is no urgency to cut interest rates, and the Fed will weigh it up if financial conditions are too loose. He thinks a rate cut is likely in May, but that's not his base case.
Fed Mouthpiece" Nick Timiraroos also noted that Barclays, BNP Paribas, Jefferies and Nomura ** currentlyBoth postponed the Fed's first rate cut until June.
In this context,There is even a voice in the market that the Fed will raise interest rates rather than cut them next。The probability of Summers, the former ** in the United States, is 15%, and more asset managers believe that the probability is 20%.
On February 20, China's central bank kept the one-year loan market** interest rate (LPR) at 345% unchanged, five-year loan market** rate (LPR) from 420% to 395%。The downward revision was expected, but the magnitude exceeded market expectationsIt is the largest single historical decline in LPR over 5 years.
A number of banks have lowered mortgage interest ratesThe interest rate of the first home loan in first-tier cities has entered the "3 era".。A number of banks have cut deposit rates intensively, ranging from 10 basis points to 60 basis points.
Nvidia announced its financial results for the fourth quarter of 2023, with revenue up 265% year-on-year and earnings per share up 765% year-on-year, with revenue and profit hitting record levels for three consecutive quarters. Huang saidGenerative AI has hit a "tipping point". A number of investment banks have raised their target prices for NVIDIA.
The company's market value increased by $277 billion in a single day, the largest in the history of the U.S. market. Huang's net worth also jumped $8.5 billion on Thursday to $68.1 billion, rising to No. 21 on the Bloomberg Billionaires Index.
between Israel and HamasA breakthrough in the hostage negotiations is expected。Israeli Defense Minister Benny Gantz saidPreliminary indications are that there may be a new hostage agreement,But if there is no new hostage agreement, the operation will continue during Ramadan. Earlier, it was reported that Israel's full-scale military operation in Gaza could continue for another 6-8 weeks, believing that the last bastion of Hamas is in the southern border city of Rafah.
The American side urged IsraelDo not attack Rafah in the absence of a "credible plan" to ensure the safety of civiliansMillions of civilians have taken refuge here. This week, the United States again vetoed the new draft resolution on the situation in Gaza proposed by Algeria for the third time since the current round of the Palestinian-Israeli conflictFor the first time, a temporary "ceasefire" in the Gaza Strip was called.
Yemen's Houthis attacked two U.S. ships in less than 24 hours this week, shot down a U.S. military drone and sank a British cargo ship. Subsequently, the United States and Britain also carried out airstrikes on Houthi-controlled areas and gradually increased the intensity, and the US military said that it had shot down six Houthi drones in the Red Sea. On February 19, European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen announced the launch of the EU's Red Sea escort operation.
But the Houthi leader in Yemen saidOperations in the Red Sea region continue and will seek escalation, "underwater **" will also be introduced to strike targets in the Red Sea. The group's leaders also said that in the 20 weeks since the start of the military operation, they have attacked a total of 48 ships in the Red Sea and the Arabian Sea, and fired 183 drones and missiles at Israel.
On February 20, a number of ** accounts under the name of quantitative giant Lingjun automatically generated trading instructions through computer programs, placed a large number of orders in a short period of time, and sold a total of 137.2 billion yuan, and sell the Shanghai market in 1 minute**119.5 billion yuan. This led to a rapid decline in the Shenzhen Stock Exchange Component Index, and the Shanghai Stock Exchange and Shenzhen Stock Exchange imposed suspension and restriction measures on it and initiated a public censure process. Lingjun announced late at night that he was resolutely obedient and sincerely apologized.
Subsequently, the Shanghai and Shenzhen Stock Exchanges issued a document on the smooth implementation of the quantitative trading reporting system, stating that they would establish and improve the regulatory arrangements for quantitative trading, and clarify the access arrangements of "reporting first, trading later". The SFC saidThe next stage of the quantitative trading supervision series of measures will be matured and launched.
In addition, recently, a number of quantitative institutions, including High-Flyer's ** products, have had a large excess drawdown. A person related to High-Flyer saidThere is no product liquidationAt the same time, it said that the company has never done any DMA leveraged trading.
Recently, foreign media reported that the regulatory authorities restricted major institutional investors from net selling at the opening and **stage**, and prohibited institutions from shorting A-shares through stock indexes. The SFC responded that it was not a restriction on sellingThe regulatory authorities do not intervene in normal market transactions, and have taken regulatory measures against the abnormal trading behaviors of individual institutions, which is a measure to fulfill the transaction supervision duties
According to reports, Wu Qing, the new secretary of the party committee and chairman of the China Securities Regulatory Commission, has not rested and worked overtime during the holiday period since his arrival. After the Spring Festival, the China Securities Regulatory Commission held a series of more than 10 symposiums, covering various market participants. Among them, Wu Qing presided over two sessions one after another, and also led a team to the brokerage business department to discuss and exchange views with more than 10 individual investor representatives.
On February 23, Yan Bojin, chief risk officer and director of the issuance department of the China Securities Regulatory Commission, said at a press conference that preventing and cracking down on financial fraud and fraudulent issuance is an ongoing processThere is currently no IPO backcheck 10-year arrangement. The China Securities Regulatory Commission (CSRC) system adheres to the investor-oriented, strictly reviews the companies to be listed, severely punishes the behaviors that violate laws and regulations and infringes on the interests of investors, and uses the deterrent effect of supervision to make enterprises dare not "break through with illness".Improve the quality of listed companies from the source.
Japan's Ministry of Finance report showsJapan's exports rose 11 percent year-on-year in January9%, imports fell by 96%, the 10th consecutive month of decline. The relative stability of external demand is likely to support the market's view that the BoJ can continue to move towards monetary policy normalization. However,Japan** downgraded its view on the economy for the first time since November 2023It was also the first time since February 2022 that consumer spending forecasts have been downgraded, indicating that the economic recovery has stalled.
This week, the yen fell below the 150 mark again, Japan** warnedThe rate at which the yen depreciates is "excessive" and "undesirable". Bank of Japan Governor Kazuo Ueda also said that it is important for foreign exchange rates to reflect economic fundamentals. He also said that inflation in Japan is accelerating as the tight labor market pushes up wages, which is a trend. He reiterated the BoJ's belief that it isThe conditions are being formed to end negative interest rates.
In addition, the Nikkei 225 indexThis week's highest price since December 29, 1989, breaking through 39,000 points. Analysts pointed out that the reason behind it may be that the Tokyo ** Stock Exchange has been actively engaged in the governance of listed companies for many years, and corporate earnings have continued to improve.
Foreign media reported that members of the Norwegian parliament nominated Musk as a candidate for the Nobel Peace Prize, calling Musk a "staunch supporter of freedom of speech" and praising Musk for providing Ukrainian soldiers with Starlink satellite Internet connections after the outbreak of the Russian-Ukrainian conflict. In addition, he said, "Musk has founded, owned, or operated numerous technology companies that aim to improve society, increase understanding of Earth and space, and facilitate global communication and connectivity to help make the world a closer and safer place." ”The Nobel Prize nomination process will continue until March, with the winners announced in October.
Musk revealed on the social ** platform X that the first human subject of brain-computer interface company Neuralink "seems to be completely ** and able."Move the mouse on the computer screen with consciousness alone”。Neuralink previously said the study surgically implanted brain-computer interfaces into areas of the brain that control movement intentions, with the initial goal of enabling people to control a computer mouse or keyboard with their consciousness.
Recently, a lottery player in Jiangxi bought a welfare lottery ticket **2The grand prize of more than 200 million yuan has attracted widespread attention. The Ministry of Civil Affairs confirmed that the lottery sales data sealing, lottery, on-site notarization, lottery announcement and other work in strict accordance with the prescribed procedures. This time 2More than 200 million yuan jackpot, each bet bonus of 10,000 yuan, due to the triggering of the limit of compensation, each bet bonus reduced to 4,475 yuan.