Strong non-farm payrolls data dashed hopes of a rate cut by the Federal Reserve (Fed) in March, pushing the dollar** and causing gold prices to fall to their lowest level in a week on Monday (6th).
New York April delivery *** time **10$80, down 05% to 2042 per ounce$90, which is the lowest price since January 29. Despite this, the price of gold has not dispelled the market's expectation that it may reach a new high, and analysts remain optimistic.
xs.Rania Gule, a market analyst at COM, said the strong jobs data "reinforces the view that interest rates will remain elevated until the end of spring."
The market expects the Fed to keep interest rates unchanged at its March meeting. Against this backdrop, the dollar index climbed to a near three-month high of 104 on Monday41, putting pressure on the dollar-denominated **.
Last Friday (2nd), the U.S. announced that the number of non-farm payrolls in January exceeded expectations, reaching 3530,000, while the unemployment rate remained at 37%, close to the lowest level since the 1960s.
Fed Chair Jerome Powell said in an interview with CBS program "60 Minutes" over the weekend that the Fed** is looking for the best time to unwind restrictive monetary policy, but March does not seem to be the most opportune time, nor is it the central bank's base case.
Minneapolis Fed President Neel Kashkari also said on Monday that there was no need to cut interest rates too quickly because current rates are not too dampening economic growth.
George Milling-Stanley, chief strategist at State Street Global Advisors, believes that the obvious signs of weakness in gold prices may be related to the fact that "the US economy and unemployment remain stronger than many commentators expected".
He said that there are no signs of an economic slowdown in the United States that many expected, and Powell stressed that the Fed is in no hurry to start cutting interest rates, prompting traders and investors to lower their expectations for when the Fed will act.
Ahead of last week's Fed meeting, there were strong expectations that the Fed would cut interest rates in March. However, Milling-Stanley now believes that the Fed's action in March seems unlikely, and hopes of a rate cut in May are diminishing. But he also cautioned that too high expectations should not be fooled. "Gold remains within our expected range and remains well above the 100-day move of $1,983 and the 200-day move of $1,965. ”
Ahead of the Fed's policy decision last week, UBS maintained its $2,200 price target for this year. Strategist Joni Teves said that although there is a lot of uncertainty about the timing and magnitude of the Fed's rate cuts, the focus is on the market's expectation that the Fed will ease policy and US interest rates will move lower.
He believes that portfolio diversification is essential against the backdrop of ongoing geopolitical tensions, and ** has always been one of the preferred assets. UBS does not expect this to be a sustained driver for gold prices, but it will support investor interest and make it more resilient.