Introduction.
In this chaotic year of 2022, the U.S. economy will be in the spotlight, especially when it is observed. However, it cannot be denied that a considerable number of people are still trapped in their "small circle" and have an "ignorant and ignorant" attitude toward the United States. To figure this out, let's take a look at what a French financial analyst thinks about the prediction that it could become the world's largest "black swan".
America's fundamental problems and the most serious crisis.
Albert Edwards, an international strategist at Societe Generale, recently warned about the global economic situation in 2024 that the economy is facing a "black swan" crisis, and put forward a "black swan" view that the United States will enter a depression as a result. This time, the collapse is due to the fact that the valuation of the US technology ** is too high, and the *** of the seven major companies is much higher than the market average. However, this bubble was not built on a large amount of economic construction, it was caused by the massive printing of money in the United States, as well as a large fiscal deficit, which was caused by a large amount of money. So it is expected that once there is a Great Depression in the United States, then there is a great chance that high-tech companies will be shattered.
The soaring capital of the American tech giant and the increase in its earnings.
Look at Microsoft, its market share has increased in a short period of time. In less than four years, the U.S. will go from $1 trillion at the end of 2019 to $3 trillion at the beginning of 2024. By contrast, its earnings growth, while fast, is not enough to support a rapidly growing capital market. This begs the question, what's behind the market value?
The first thing to pay attention to is the impact of this flu outbreak on **. Since 2020, the United States has generated a large amount of currency inflows through a large number of money printing and issuing bonds, forming an unprecedented economic easing. Such a large amount of capital investment is significantly higher than the annual GDP of the United States, and supports the rapidly rising capital market in the technology sector.
Second, we should have a clear understanding of the interaction between the market and the economy. The uncertain outlook for the U.S. economy will allow the bubble in the technology sector to fall back to some extent or even burst. However, to judge the collapse of market capitalization, it is necessary to know where the US economy will go in 2024.
U.S. economic outlook for 2024.
As for whether the United States will enter a depression in 2024, we are not yet sure. However, given the heavy lending in the United States and investor confidence, the collapse of high-tech companies is likely to occur in the event of a severe recession. Conversely, if the U.S. economy remains flat, there may be some corrections, but it is unlikely to collapse overnight.
In conclusion, the predictions of French experts are not unfounded. They discovered this crisis by dissecting the bubble in the stock prices of U.S. technology stocks, and made the biggest "black swan" of all time. However, these predictions are all speculation after all, and the real situation depends on how far the US economy will develop in 2024.
A little bit of my experience and conclusion.
We should look at the current economic situation and its development trend in the United States with an objective and rational mentality. In the face of a possible economic bubble, we should not panic, let alone underestimate the dangers it poses. As an investor, we must have a clear understanding of ** and comprehensively consider various influencing factors.
In addition, this prophecy makes us re-examine the economic model of the United States. Relying too much on technology and bubbles to support long-term growth in the U.S. is detrimental. Despite the emergence of the first bubble, we must realize that the development of a country or a region must have a solid foundation in order to have lasting growth.
Finally, I sincerely hope that everyone can look at the problem rationally and objectively in the face of the current situation, and not be affected by the extreme mentality. In terms of expectations and opinions, you should be cautious and make decisions based on your own judgment and reason. Only in this way will we be better able to meet the challenges and opportunities of the future.