The National Interest, a bimonthly U.S. magazine**, published an article on Dec. 4 titled "The U.S. Air Force in a Deep Recession." The article analyzes two major problems of the US Air Force, showing that it is in poor physical condition. The U.S. Air Force is 76 years old, and it used to be the most powerful air force in the world, but now it faces serious challenges.
The first problem of the US Air Force is the lack of personnel and the low quality of the personnel. Neither active duty nor reservists in the U.S. Air Force have met their 2023 recruitment targets, falling 11% and 30%, respectively. In order to recruit more people, the US Air Force had to lower the standards of recruitment, including drug use, body composition, age, etc. This led to a decline in the structure and quality of personnel of the US Air Force.
The article also mentions that the elimination rate of the US Air Force has also decreased significantly, from 20% in the 80s of the last century to 027%。This is not because the quality of the personnel of the US Air Force has improved, but because the US Air Force has no choice but to relax the requirements for assessment in order to ensure the number of personnel. This means that many underperformers are also able to be promoted, and the standards for enlistment, training, and promotion are all at an all-time low. This has seriously affected the combat effectiveness of the US Air Force. In general, the personnel problem of the US Air Force is seriously lacking, and its combat quality is at an all-time low.
The second problem of the US Air Force is the aging of equipment and the low attendance rate. The quantity and quality of fighters and bombers of the US Air Force have dropped significantly. At its peak, the US Air Force had 4,468 fighters and 331 bombers, 80 percent of which could carry out combat missions. But by 2020, the US Air Force had only 32 fighter squadrons, 1,932 fighters and 140 bombers left, of which only 60% could carry out combat missions. In the event of a war with China, the size of the US Air Force's fighters and bombers would be only 32% of what it had at its peak.
The U.S. Air Force's pilots also have an all-time low in annual flight hours. At the height of the Cold War, fighter pilots flew an average of 200 hours a year. But in 2022, Air Force fighter pilots fly an average of only 129 hours a year, and the Air Force does not have a squadron ready to carry out missions. This means that the pilots of the US Air Force are not trained and experienced enough to cope with the complex battlefield environment. In general, the equipment problems of the US Air Force are seriously aging and the attendance rate is very low.
Many Chinese may not believe it, thinking that this is deliberately said by the US Air Force in order to ask for money. But we can see that the US Congress recently rejected the US Air Force's plan to retire 33 F F F A10 attack aircraft. This is because Congress is concerned that there are too many aircraft decommissioned and there are not enough fighters on duty. They hope that these 30-year-old aircraft will survive beyond 2030.
Moreover, from 2020 to 2026, the US Congress has only approved the purchase of 84 F15EXs and 220 F35As, and only 50 fighters a year. The production capacity plans of Lockheed Martin and Boeing are also based on this procurement list, and the US Air Force will not have one more fighter no matter how poor it is. "The U.S. Air Force is in a Deep Recession" is more like a medical report of the U.S. Air Force than a collection report.
Unlike the U.S. Air Force, most of the Chinese Air Force's main fighters are produced in the 21st century and have been in service for no more than 15 years. The three musketeers of the Chinese Air Force, J-20, J-16, and J-10C, have more than 900 aircraft in service and have been in service for no more than 8 years. A total of 600 J-10A and J-11B are being converted into fourth-generation and a half-generation fighters, and the service time is only 15 years.
The Chinese Air Force has more than 1,500 fourth-and-a-half-generation and fifth-generation aircraft, and is still producing them at a rate of 150 every year. In the field of fighters, the Chinese Air Force has surpassed the US Air Force, this is a fact.
The number of early warning aircraft of the Chinese Air Force also exceeds 70, which not only exceeds the number of 32 E-3 "Watchtower" early warning aircraft of the US Air Force, but also leads the E-3 by at least two generations in performance. China also has more than 200 H-6Ks, which also exceeds the 140 of the US Air Force, but there is a temporary lack of such a large killer as the H-20. The number of Y-20B is also rapidly catching up with the 220 of the C17, but there is still a lack of large transport aircraft of 400 tons, which is our blank.
The pilots of the Chinese Air Force have nearly 200 flight hours a year, far exceeding the 129 hours of the US Air Force. Combat exercises such as the Golden Helmet have become the norm in the Chinese Air Force. The discipline and loyalty of the People's Air Force are unimaginable to the US Air Force.
The US Air Force, which was so powerful that it made the people of the world fearful, in the Gulf War era, is gone forever, and the Chinese Air Force is slowly surpassing the US Air Force to become the world's strongest air force. This goal can be fully achieved by 2027.