Synopsis. The lagged effect of Shenzhen's economic investment will also affect people's intuitive perception of economic growth. There is no output without input, but input is often not immediately converted into output. As leading indicators of economic development and business performance, the good performance of fixed asset investment and R&D investment predicts large-scale economic output in the future, but it has not yet been perceived by people.
Wen Liu Guohong, Vice President of China (Shenzhen) Comprehensive Development Research Institute, Postdoctoral Fellow in Economics.
In 2023, the global economy will struggle to move forward amid frequent geopolitical conflicts, and China will overcome many difficulties to promote the economic recovery. Among them, Shenzhen's economic performance is outstanding, with GDP increasing by 6% year-on-year0%, ranking first among the four major first-tier cities in the country; Investment in fixed assets increased by 11 percent year-on-year0%, and the total retail sales of consumer goods increased by 7 percent year-on-year8%, and the total import and export volume increased by 5 percent year-on-year9%, the "troika" driving economic growth has performed well. However, Shenzhen's annual economic growth has not aroused strong feelings among all enterprises and citizens. In fact, it is not surprising that behind Shenzhen's economic growth, there are phased and structural profound changes.
First, Shenzhen's economy has entered a medium-to-high-speed growth stage, and the year-on-year GDP growth rate of Shenzhen in 2018 has dropped to below 8%, but the high-growth expectations formed by the original high-growth stage still have an inertial effect. Although Shenzhen's GDP growth rate of 6% in 2023 is higher than that of other first-tier cities in China, it has dropped significantly compared with the previous high growth rate of more than 8% or even more than 10%. Therefore, the general feeling of the market and social micro subjects is that competition tends to intensify, income growth slows down, and optimistic expectations and assets begin to decline. Of course, people need a gradual process of adaptation to the phased changes in economic development.
Second, the development of Shenzhen's new quality productive forces has shown strong vitality and strong momentum, but it has not yet benefited a wider range of industries and people. By the end of 2023, the total number of registered commercial entities in Shenzhen has reached 42260,000 households, ranking first among major cities in the country; The output of new energy vehicles and service robots increased respectively. 0%。However, the explosive growth of new energy, artificial intelligence and other emerging industrial sectors, the economies of scale and industrial driving effects are still being formed, and their rapid growth has not yet "spread" to a wider range of industrial sectors.
Third, the lag effect of Shenzhen's economic investment will also affect people's intuitive perception of economic growth. In 2023, Shenzhen's fixed asset investment will be nearly one trillion yuan, an increase of 110%；The whole society invested in R&D 1880500 million yuan, an increase of 118%。We often say that there is no output without input, but input is often not immediately converted into output. Therefore, the good performance of fixed asset investment and R&D investment, as leading indicators of economic development and business performance, predicts large-scale economic output in the future, but it has not yet been perceived by people.
Scenery of Shenzhen. (Drone aerial photography**) Photo by Xinhua News Agency reporter Mao Siqian.
In the context of the great changes unseen in a century, it is not only commendable for a country, a region and a city to maintain sustainable economic growth, but also an inevitable move to accumulate strength, strive for the initiative and win the future. In order to understand the characteristics of the phased and structural changes in Shenzhen's economic development, it is imperative to maintain strategic concentration, enhance confidence in development, earnestly carry forward the spirit of the special zone of daring to break new ground, dare to try, dare to be the first, and immerse oneself in hard work, promote the construction of a new system and a new market that is compatible with the new economy with more "hard" science and technology, a "bigger" market, and a more "excellent" environment, speed up the development and expansion of the new quality productive forces, and ensure that a certain rate of economic growth will be maintained for a fairly long period of time. Only in this way can we overcome the economic cycle and various development traps, achieve more sustainable growth and higher-quality development, more effectively protect and improve social and people's livelihood, and give the people a greater sense of gain and happiness.
It is gratifying that the 2024 Shenzhen Municipal Work Report has strategically and purposefully deployed the annual key work in the fields of deepening deep-seated reforms, expanding high-level opening-up, developing new quality productivity, and integrating into the national unified market. Over the past 40 years, Shenzhen has created a miracle of the world's industrialization, urbanization and modernization, and I believe that Shenzhen will bring us a greater miracle of high-quality development and high-level leap in the future.
This article was published in Shenzhen Special Zone Daily on February 6, 2024 a07
Southern Finance Author: Chen Siqi, Design: Chen Shan.