The European Union had pledged to provide Ukraine with 1 million rounds of artillery ammunition within a year to support its resistance to Russian aggression. The plan, which was approved earlier this year, will first take ammunition from existing stockpiles and then increase it through joint purchase agreements and expanded capacity**.
However, according to a Bloomberg survey, progress on this plan is far behind expectations. So far, only about 30 per cent of the ammunition volume has been delivered or contracts have been signed. If this continues, the EU will not be able to meet its targets by March 2024.
Some EU member states have been careful to suggest that EU foreign policy departments consider extending delivery deadlines. At the same time, it is reported that the United States is also ramping up the production of artillery shells, planning to reach about 1 million per year in 2024, and urging the European Union to speed up the pace.
EU member states have kept a low profile about their contributions to the program and the details of their contracts. However, some countries, including the Baltic states, Germany, the Netherlands and Poland, have secretly revealed about 300,000 to 400,000 ammunition they have donated under the EU initiative.
In addition, Finland, Sweden, Denmark and non-EU member Norway have already pledged 52 million euros in funding for future production starting next year. The report also notes that since the launch of this program, the cost of ammunition has increased, which may affect whether the current budget will be able to achieve its goals.
However, these figures do not include all shipments since Russia launched a full-scale offensive, and some countries may have received ammunition from sources outside the EU or have not made their deliveries public. Some EU member states are also pursuing their own procurement programs to boost their own industrial capacity, following Ukraine's example.
At the same time, NATO is calling on member states to overcome protectionist tendencies and agree on uniform standards for artillery ammunition in order to facilitate production. At the same time, there are also concerns that with the escalation of the situation in the Middle East, the conflict in Ukraine is gradually being ignored by Western countries, who are paying more attention to the events in Israel.
In this case, Kyiv may face difficulties in terms of procurement and international support.
Unlike Europe, which is experiencing difficulties in supplying ammunition to Ukraine, Russian factories are expected to deliver about 2 million shells next year. In addition, Moscow received supplies from the DPRK and is actively buying Soviet-era shells.
The British Ministry of Defense said in its latest report on the situation in Ukraine, released on October 26, that ammunition depots in western Russia contain ammunition from North Korea, which provide important support for Russia's military operation in Ukraine.
DOCUMENT**: Soldiers of the 2nd Battalion of the 150th Field Artillery Regiment of the Indiana National Guard deploy M777 howitzers and distribute 155mm guns at the Joint Mobile Training Center at Camp Atterbury in central Indiana on November 5, 2022. It was the first country to receive field artillery with advanced technology and digital operation.
This development of the situation makes it possible for the DPRK to become one of the well-known foreign countries of Russia. The ministry also stressed that if North Korea continues to maintain its current pace and scale of military-related transport, its importance may soon rival that of major countries such as Iran and Belarus.
Although Russian officials have denied recent reports, we are almost certain that North Korean ammunition has been delivered to ammunition depots in western Russia. These stocks support Russia's military operation in Ukraine," the British Ministry of Defense added.
The specifics of what Russia offered North Korea in exchange for remain unclear. The full deal may still be negotiated, and it may have been a central topic of discussion during a recent visit to North Korea by a Russian high-level. Such arrangements may involve financial compensation, various forms of economic support, transfer of military technology, and cooperation in other high-end technology areas such as space.
In addition to these circumstances, the head of the intelligence center of the Estonian Defense Forces (EDF), Colonel Antz Kiwiseger, noted that Russia currently has about 4 million artillery shells, which can sustain a year of low-intensity warfare. At the same time, the additional 350,000 artillery shells obtained from the DPRK indicate Russia's intention to drag on the conflict with Ukraine.
Kiwiseger explained that supplying ammunition to the front line is not necessarily the most urgent goal or need. Rather, it reflects a strategy for building and maintaining inventory based on long-term considerations.