China Net Finance, February 28 (Reporter Li Chunhui) The first economic work conference held at the end of last year pointed out that some difficulties and challenges need to be overcome to further promote the economic rebound, one of which is "weak social expectations". How to improve expectations, especially enterprise expectations, has become one of the important contents of this year's economic work.
Recently, the "2023 "Enterprise Cost" Survey Report (hereinafter referred to as the "Report") released by the Chinese Academy of Fiscal Sciences provides a new idea for improving corporate expectations. The report obtains 13,656 valid samples, covering 31 provinces, municipalities and autonomous regions across the country, and the research targets include various market entities, as well as departments such as finance, development and reform, industry and information technology, human resources and social security, taxation, market supervision, banking and insurance regulatory and related industry associations.
According to the report, the high cost of risk is the root cause of the rise in corporate risk expectations. As a result, the economic behavior of enterprises has become more cautious, the business behavior has shrunk structurally, the digital transformation has the phenomenon of "unwilling to change, dare not change", and the employment mode has shown a trend of "flexible and short-term".
Firm costs include both quantifiable and measurable historical costs determined by past behavior, as well as risk costs internalized by external risk factors.
The research team found that the strategic logic of reducing enterprise costs in China is the historical cost view, focusing on "reducing the burden" of enterprises and improving the current operating conditions of enterprises, while the understanding of risk costs is insufficient, and the guidance of future expectations is weak.
The report argues that the cost reduction policy based on the historical cost view is not suitable for risk cost, and the cost reduction policy should shift from the "historical cost view" to the "risk cost view". From the perspective of risk expectations, "falling short of expectations" will lead to the greatest social psychological costs, inducing a "risk spiral", that is, weaker social expectations, pushing up economic and social costs.
It is critical to find viable paths to improve societal expectations, especially corporate expectations. Fu Zhihua, chairman of the academic committee and researcher of the Chinese Academy of Fiscal Sciences, said in the release of the report, "We start from the risk cost view, use the 'risk-cost-expectation' framework to carry out analysis, and take the reduction of public risk level as the starting point, and put forward ideas and suggestions to improve corporate expectations, boost social confidence, and promote economic development." ”
According to the report, the core of reducing corporate risk expectations is to reduce the level of public risk, and the key to reducing the level of public risk is to improve the predictability of behavior.
The report puts forward a series of countermeasures and suggestions: maintain the stability and consistency of macro policies, inject certainty into the development of enterprises, conduct mandatory risk assessment and review of advanced policies, curb the publicization and risk spillover of risks, avoid the rise of public risk levels, and build a macro risk management framework through comprehensive deepening reform.