From this year onwards, do you want to be prepared after the tide recedes ? Pedestrian Knowledgeabl

Mondo Education Updated on 2024-02-26

The current real estate trend has indeed surprised many people, so much so that people who were bullish on the property market before seem to be reversing their attitudes.

The reason is very simple, in the words of friends around me, in the 25 years of rapid development of real estate, there has never been like these two years, no matter how relaxed, optimized, stimulated, purchasing power is still not released, most of the city's transaction volume, new and second-hand houses are showing a downward trend, and how many people dare to take over easily?

This friend was right. According to the data of the statistical department, the accumulated inventory of the property market in the first half of the year has advanced to the 700 million square meter mark, fortunately, the country has seen this trend, and said that the relationship between supply and demand in the property market has undergone a major change, and the real estate policy should be adjusted and optimized.

But the problem is that the measures that can be used now are basically used, and the only thing that is useless is that the developer's financing is normally opened, as long as the developer can borrow money from the bank, he can take the land and heat up the land market. But this nuclear ** is basically impossible to use, an important reason is that the important reason for the real estate leverage in recent years is that the fear that the excessive leverage of real estate is easy to cause financial system risks and economic crises, "ten crises, nine real estate", the lessons of the past are here, no one can bear this responsibility.

Therefore, in the words of a knowledgeable person in the industry, all that can be used are used, and what cannot be used is that it cannot be used, starting next year, we must be prepared after the "tide recedes", whether it is the real estate market, or **, individuals must be psychologically prepared in this regard. The reason for this trend is mainly due to the significant shift in the three factors that drive real estate.

1.The trend of decreasing rigid demand is becoming more and more obvious

According to the principle of economics, in a perfectly competitive market, the ** of commodities is determined by supply and demand. For the real estate market, it is mainly about housing** and the demand for housing purchases. If the former remains relatively stable, the direction of the house mainly depends on the amount of demand.

Our housing market demand is mainly in two aspects, one is newborns, and the other is the population flowing from rural areas to cities, also known as urbanization flow. In the two years after the full release of the second child, there was a slight increase in newborns, more than 17 million in 2016 and 2017, but it only lasted for two years, falling to the 15 million level in 2018 (lower than in 2015), 14 million in 2019, only 12 million in 2020, and only 9.56 million in 2022, down to below 10 million. Judging from the current situation, the less likely the population is to rebound, and considering the cost of raising and buying a house, the possibility of continuing to decline is very large, so the way to increase the demand for the property market by relying on newborns is simply not feasible.

And for the rural-to-urban population, the data is also very realistic. At the end of 2022, the urbanization rate of the permanent population has exceeded 65%, considering the separation of our households (hukou in the countryside, there is a house in the city), the urbanization rate should be significantly more than 70% if the urbanization rate is calculated by housing, and the urbanization rate continues to increase The room for upward improvement is very limited, and it is getting slower and slower, according to the experience of developed economies, the urbanization rate of 10 percentage points may take twenty or thirty years to complete, which can be said to be relatively weak in promoting real estate. Of course, it's not that our population is aging faster than normal, and some celebrities say that it's not alarmist that a young couple will manage N suites in the future.

2.There has been a real shift in financial flows

Housing prices have been able to grow rapidly in the past 20 years, demand is only one aspect, and another important aspect is capital, which is simply explained.

In terms of developers, by borrowing money from banks, trusts and other channels, and then buying land and building houses, when the company grows bigger, even if there is no penny in hand, they can still borrow money to grab the land, the local king, you can see that in the past land auction market, no matter how high the land price is, there are real estate companies to take it, and it is still pushed up. After the local price rises, the surrounding second-hand house owners and new properties have all sat on the ground to increase the price, which is the most direct and effective way for housing prices to jump in the past.

In terms of home buyers, everyone sees that the house price ** brings a money-making effect, and does not hesitate to smash the pot and sell iron to buy a house, what zero down payment, the house is refinanced to pay the down payment, and what consumer loans flow into the housing market, although it was later blocked, but there are business loans for buying houses. Anyway, in order to buy a house, money is flowing into the housing market in different ways.

However, the rapid increase in household debt (mainly housing loans) has attracted great attention from the state, for example, our household debt ratio is still as high as 565%, in a general sense, 50% is the warning line. This is also the reason why the state has introduced a "3+2" red line to control the leverage of real estate enterprises and home buyers. If it is not controlled, it will inevitably puncture the real estate bubble and trigger a financial crisis, which will eventually endanger the economy. Of course, taking a step back, even if the state liberalizes the leverage of real estate companies and home buyers, in the current market, how many banks dare to lend money to real estate companies, and there is no future, how many people will increase leverage to buy houses? Therefore, the funds are naturally withdrawn from the property market, and the return is becoming less and less.

Of course, there is no room for excessive ampleness. The United States and the European Central Bank continue to raise interest rates, and we can no longer increase the money printing machine. Therefore, for real estate that survives with a huge amount of money, the loss of funds means that there is really no decent opportunity for real estate to restart.

3.The way of thinking about regulation has really changed

Everyone should feel this deeply. In recent years, no matter how sluggish the property market is, the country has no longer vigorously stimulated real estate, even in the face of downward pressure on the economy, it is mainly a partial optimization of real estate policies, and every time it is very cautious, a little liberal, including the official media, the Internet will shout a voice to prevent the property market from overheating. To put it bluntly, what has not been done, someone has come out to intervene, what to say, the concept of housing not speculation has been deeply rooted in the hearts of the people, speculation has become a rat crossing the street, everyone shouts and beats, in such an environment, ** still has the conditions for speculation?

All this is due to the principle that the country has always adhered to in recent years, that is, no longer relying on real estate to stimulate short-term economic development. Normal demand support, but speculation is not good, I once remember that at an important meeting, housing is not speculation as a long-term national policy. If buying a house doesn't make money, who still buys a house? Even saving in the bank is better than buying a house, isn't it? After all, the cash flow is still there, at least you can get it when you use it.

In the face of major changes in the industry, the most sensitive are undoubtedly the businessmen in the industry

Li Ka-shing, who is known as the "originator" of Chinese real estate in the industry, has been standing in the mall for a long time, and his every move is the most convincing. In March this year, the Li Ka-shing family launched a real estate project in Hong Kong that was much lower than the surrounding housing prices, hitting a three-year low. While shipping, it is also pretending to enter the mainland real estate market, and after raising a plot of land for the first time in the Guangzhou land auction market in June this year, it will not follow up, and it will be fought for by other developers, for fear of really getting the land.

In the eyes of the industry, this is a bluff, because there are no real estate projects of the Li family in the mainland, but it is just a cover for the shipment of real estate in Hong Kong. Sure enough, in the past few days, the Li family sold it at a price 3 percent lower than the surrounding second-hand housing prices. What is the best time to buy a house and land in 3 years, but it is just a disguise, and the body is the most honest. So, what is the reason for the Li family's crazy dumping? China Real Estate News published on August 7 "Li Ka-shing Sells Real Estate at a Price Cut, What Signal Does You Smell?" Bai Wenxi, chief economist of IPG China, was quoted as saying that the Li family's sale of houses at a discount was obviously not due to cash flow or performance pressure, but was likely to judge the next trend.

From the above information, it can be seen that real estate cannot usher in a big reversal every time it falls into a trough as in the past, but the time for steady adjustment may be longer, and the era of getting rich by buying a house has really passed.

Because of this, some people who have been through the storm for a long time say that in view of the uncertainty of the future, it is recommended to hold two things: one is cash, which is more reassuring than buying anything physical in a weak market. Moreover, during the market correction period, there are often low-priced assets that are beyond imagination, as long as you have cash in hand, you can control it, and it is just the right time to wait.

And the other one is premium**. As the saying goes, there is no bull market in inflation, and since the beginning of this year, our CPI has increased from 21% has been declining, and now it is around the negative value, which cannot be compared with the 2% inflation rate we have maintained for a long time, and it is at a historical low, and recently the central media also shouted that it is necessary for residents to make money through *** to expand consumption, and it seems to be releasing some kind of signal, compared to the long-term consolidation at a certain point There is no fall, then, the possibility of rebounding is naturally more.

Related Pages