The conditions for the reduction of the benchmark deposit rate may be basically ripe. If we are not willing to cut interest rates more sharply and broadly, we should tighten funding a little and reduce the inversion between market-based and non-market-based interest rates.
Following the $1 trillion issuance of special government bonds, I would like to cut interest rates sharply to bring market interest rates in line with policy rates.
Domestic and foreign liquidity is "hard to recover", and these liquidities may significantly boost assets**. Ordinary people want to keep their money bags, at least not let themselves shrink significantly.
Most of Warren Buffett's followers look down on ** because it cannot generate cash flow. Although Xiao Shura is also a value investor, he believes that in the medium and long term, ** can be regarded as a tool to resist uncontrolled central banks and inflation, and it is also a rare beneficiary of black swan events. Of course, it is also difficult to obtain high returns, and it is generally recommended not to engage in **, choose ETFs, the lowest management fees, and simple enough. It's the opposite of the operation of the crisis, usually take it when it's fine, and sell some when the world has a disaster.
2: Virtual currencies such as Bitcoin, this is not to be discussed, Xiao Shura does not like it, and the risk is extremely high.
3: Real estate.
There is no shortage of land in China as a whole, and there is a local scarcity. To some extent, buying a house is buying land use rights, and the more expensive the house price in the big city, the higher the proportion of land in the house price. It is different from **and**, because real estate involves people's livelihood and finance, and the impact of the policy is great, and the school district housing policy has enriched some people. . .
The logic is easy to understand. At present, the best performing targets are public utilities, textiles and garments, coal, etc., most of which belong to the asset-light or cash-flow sectors, which are deflationary logic. If confidence is restored and inflation is triggered by a flood of liquidity, asset-heavy companies** will perform better. Because heavy assets will appreciate with inflation, corporate valuations will naturally rise. Valuations of asset-light companies such as technology, culture, and internet will not rise with inflation.
In addition to traditional real estate stocks, resource stocks, and most of the industrial enterprises are heavy assets, Xiao Shura also specially talked about the commercial retail sector. China is now beginning to promote public REITs, that is, to make the property **, and it is mandatory to distribute more than 90% of the income, and the rent will be divided, good liquidity + mandatory high dividends, to a large extent, can help the value of commercial real estate revaluation. This thing is relatively mature in Europe, the United States and Hong Kong, and the famous one is $Link Real Estate**(00823)$. Therefore, I am more optimistic about the revaluation of the value of commercial retail companies with more property ownership rates, such as Wangfujing, Supply and Marketing Daji, Chongqing Department Store, as well as Ewushang A, Xujiahui, Shoushang Shares, Guangbai Shares, and Dashang Shares, all of which have a lot of commercial properties in core areas.
Finally, consumption is also a good way to resist the depreciation of banknotes, and it can also support the economy. List of high-quality authors