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With the emergence of technological progress and large-scale production, the new energy vehicle industry has entered the stage of overcapacity from the stage of "lack of electricity, less electricity, and expensive electricity". In 2023, the sales volume of power batteries in China will be 6163GWh, up 324%, and the production capacity increased by about 60% year-on-year. However, correspondingly, the growth rate of domestic power battery loading has slowed down to about 32%, the imbalance between power battery supply and demand has intensified, and the phenomenon of capacity mismatch has become increasingly prominent.
Overcapacity has directly weakened the pricing power of battery companies. Following the "lithium mine rebate" plan, the industry leader CATL launched a 173 ampere-hour VDA (German Federation) specification lithium iron phosphate cell promotion plan to a number of car companies, 0The 4 yuan watt-hour battery ** anchors the route of large single products, and refers to the pure electric vehicle market below 200,000 yuan.
At the same time, car companies that have gradually gained the initiative in pricing are also striving to reduce costs and increase efficiency. A few days ago, BYD's Fodi Battery urged the team to further reduce costs by strengthening the management and control of non-productive materials. It is foreseeable that in the increasingly fierce competition situation, in order to maintain its own market share, the power battery ** has dropped to 03 yuan watt-hour is only a matter of time.
The author believes that the impact of the decline in battery costs on the new energy vehicle industry chain will soon be apparent. First of all, the head new energy vehicle companies represented by BYD and Tesla will reduce the price of their products to make them equal or even lower than those of fuel vehicles of the same level, so as to further accelerate the progress of new energy vehicles to replace fuel vehicles.
Secondly, affected by the "wave of price cuts", new energy vehicle companies, especially the "new forces of car manufacturing", will face more severe cost and profit challenges - price reductions will make the capital chain and loss problems of some enterprises more prominent, and then be eliminated.
In the author's view, the power battery industry is entering a new period of technological iteration, and enterprises related to the industrial chain should strengthen their layout and effectively respond from three aspects:
First, combined with the capacity planning of lithium carbonate and the lower limit of production costs, there is a high probability that the ** of battery-grade lithium carbonate will continue to be "moderate" in 2024 until it stabilizes in a relatively low and reasonable range. It is recommended that battery companies prudently expand production, appropriately adjust capacity planning and expansion speed, adopt differentiated competition strategies, and improve product quality and performance to cope with market changes.
Second, power battery-related enterprises should establish new cooperative relations with enterprises in different fields such as vehicles, materials, technology, and capital, strengthen the integrated layout of the industrial chain, improve the control ability of key upstream and downstream links, and improve comprehensive benefits to cope with new problems brought about by industrial development. At the same time, we will continue to strengthen technological innovation, increase investment in key technologies such as power battery materials, structures, and processes, and make breakthroughs through technological innovation to improve the core competitiveness of products and the supply of high-quality production capacity.
Third, diversify the layout and actively expand the energy storage and global market. The author believes that energy storage and going overseas are the best solutions for the current power battery breakthrough, and the production capacity should be appropriately adjusted and new tracks should be actively opened. In terms of going overseas, we can carry out reasonable site selection and chain planning based on the target market to meet the technical compliance requirements of overseas markets and establish new overseas advantages. In terms of energy storage, it is recommended that the front-end focus on the research and development of products that "take into account energy storage of lithium power cells" to improve delivery efficiency and delivery quality, and grasp new market opportunities.