In 2023, CATL will win with 167The first-class capacity of 1GWh continues to rank first in the power battery installed capacity list, and BYD has achieved a subdivision of the "track" by virtue of its focus on lithium iron phosphate; "Second-tier" manufacturers such as China Innovation Aviation and EVE are struggling to catch up, and their market share has also increased, and the power battery industry pattern has shown many variables in its stable progress.
Wang Dongyue.
In 2023, the development of new energy vehicles in China will reach a new level, with annual sales of 949 new energy vehicles50,000 units, with cumulative sales exceeding 20 million units. The installed capacity of power batteries reached 3877GWh, continuing to rank first in the world.
Among the top 10 companies in the world in terms of installed power battery capacity, Chinese battery companies occupy six seats, with a market share of more than 60%. CATL continued to lead the industry, but its market share fell by nearly 5 percentage points year-on-year. BYD has achieved a reversal of CATL in lithium iron phosphate batteries; The market share of "emerging" forces such as China Innovation Airlines and EVE has also increased.
In 2023, the progress of self-developed batteries will begin to accelerate, and from November to December alone, four car companies have officially announced their self-developed battery plans, and the power battery market structure is facing reconstruction.
The power battery is stable and rising
According to data from the China Automotive Power Battery Industry Innovation Alliance, in 2023, China's power battery industry will continue to maintain rapid development, with a total cumulative installed capacity of 3877 GWh, an increase of 316%。Among them, the installed capacity of ternary power batteries is 1262 GWh, up 143%, with a market share of 326%；The installed capacity of lithium iron phosphate batteries was 261 GWh, a year-on-year increase of 4201%, accounting for 6732%, an increase of 4 over the previous year93 percentage points, further widening the gap with the installed capacity of ternary power batteries.
In the ranking of industry companies, CATL ranks 167The first unit volume of 1GWh continues to rank first in the industry, of which the company continues to maintain an absolute leading position in the installed capacity of ternary batteries, with a cumulative installed capacity of 78 throughout the year33GWh, accounting for 62 of the domestic ternary battery capacity08%；However, in the lithium iron phosphate battery, CATL was overtaken by BYD, and the company had a total installed capacity of 88 throughout the year77GWh, a year-on-year increase of 1071%, the company's lithium iron phosphate market share is 3401%, down 9 from the same period last year62 percentage points, the ranking slipped to second place. At the same time, affected by the decline in the proportion of lithium iron phosphate, in 2023, CATL's overall market share will increase from 48 in the same period of 20222% to 4311%, a decrease of 509 percentage points.
In 2023, BYD's cumulative installed capacity will reach 1055GWh, an increase of 36 over the same period last year4GWh, a year-on-year increase of 5268%, the company's market share increased by 376 percentage points, up from 23 in the same period last year45% to 2721%。Since BYD has all adopted lithium iron phosphate cathode batteries, the company has become the only battery company in China with an installed capacity of lithium iron phosphate batteries exceeding 100GW, and surpassed CATL to become the first in terms of installed capacity of lithium iron phosphate, with a market share of 4039%, an increase of 3 over the same period last year76 percentage points.
In addition, from the perspective of data analysis, in 2023, the concentration of the power battery industry will be further improved. From January to December, a total of 52 domestic power battery companies realized loading support, a decrease of 5 from the same period last year. Among them, the top three and top five power battery companies in the industry have a power battery loading volume of 305 respectively5GWh and 3386GWh, accounting for 78 of the first car volume81% and 8736%。Among the "second-tier" manufacturers, the market share of China Innovation Aviation and EVE has increased significantly. According to the data of the China Automotive Power Battery Industry Innovation Alliance, in 2023, the cumulative installed capacity of China Innovation Aviation Battery will be 329GWh, an increase of 13 over the previous year66GWh, a year-on-year increase of 7099%, the company's market share reached 849%, an increase of 1 from the previous year96 percentage points; EVE's cumulative installed capacity reached 1726GWh, an increase of 10 over the previous year08GWh, a year-on-year increase of 14039%, becoming the fastest growing lithium battery enterprise in installed capacity, the company's market share reached 445%, accounting for an increase of 202 percentage points. In 2023, the power battery industry will achieve stable growth and increase in concentration as a whole, but the subdivision pattern of the industry pattern is quietly changing.
Capacity expansion Utilization rate declined
In addition to the sales side, in 2023, the power battery supply side will change more drastically. According to the data, in 2023, the cumulative output of domestically produced power batteries will be about 7781GWh, with a total sales of 6163GWh, the production and sales rate is about 7921%, compared to 8594% slipped 674 percentage points.
As of the end of 2023, the total inventory of domestic power battery companies is 1618GWh, an increase of 857GWh, a year-on-year increase of 11261%；A total of 387 trucks have been loaded7GWh, car company battery inventory 2286GWh, an increase of 125 from the same period in 20228GWh, a year-on-year increase of 12237%。
The decline in the production and sales rate and the increase in the inventory of enterprises are due to the rapid expansion of production capacity. According to the summary data of many brokerages, by the end of 2023, the domestic power battery production capacity is expected to exceed 1500GWh. According to data from the Advanced Industry Research Institute (GGII), in 2023, the average utilization rate of domestic power batteries has dropped from 75% in 2022 to less than 65% in 2023, and the capacity utilization rate of energy storage batteries has also dropped from 85% in 2022 to less than 55% in 2023.
In the past year, the market has continued to deepen concerns about the overcapacity of power batteries. Previously, Zhu Huarong, chairman and secretary of the Party Committee of Changan Automobile, said, "It is estimated that by 2025, China needs a power battery production capacity of 1000-1200GWh, and the current industry capacity planning has reached 4800GWh." At present, there is serious overcapacity, and the industry will return to a rational state. ”
As a well-deserved "leading" enterprise in the power battery industry, CATL is the first to bear the brunt of the challenges. Data shows that in the first half of 2023, CATL's production capacity reached 254GWh, an increase of 64 from the same period in 202267%；The company's output in the first half of the year was about 154GWh, a year-on-year increase of 2289%, which is lower than the growth rate of production capacity. Affected by this, in 2023, the company's capacity utilization rate will drop to 6063%, down from 81 in the first half of 202225% and 83 for the whole of 20224%。In 2023, CATL's production capacity is expected to exceed 500GW, and the company's installed capacity in automotive power batteries will account for less than 40% of the total production capacity.
On the evening of January 30, 2024, CATL released a performance forecast, which is expected to achieve a net profit attributable to the parent company of 42.5 billion to 45.5 billion yuan in 2023, a year-on-year increase of 3831% to 4807%。Based on the performance forecast, the company's net profit attributable to the parent company in the fourth quarter of 2023 is 113$5.5 billion to $1435.5 billion yuan, a year-on-year growth rate of -1357% to 926%。
The trend of self-developed batteries is gradually rising
In addition, the self-developed batteries of car companies have also intensified the restructuring of the power battery industry to a certain extent. Judging from public information, in November and December 2023 alone, four car companies released news of self-developed batteries.
In November 2023, Changan Automobile announced its self-developed battery plan, announcing that it will build Changan's "Golden Bell Jar", an internationally leading self-developed battery brand. According to Changan Automobile's power battery plan, by 2030, the company will launch 8 self-developed battery cells including liquid, semi-solid, and solid-state, forming a battery production capacity of no less than 150GWh.
In December 2023, GAC Aion's Inpai Battery Smart Ecological Factory (hereinafter referred to as "Inpai Plant") was officially completed and put into operation. According to the data, the Inpai factory covers an area of about 666 acres, with a total investment of 10.9 billion yuan, and the production capacity of the first phase of the production line is 6GWh. According to GAC Aion's plan, the Inpai plant will also build a 30GWh power battery and energy storage battery production capacity in the future, which can meet the installed capacity of 600,000 new energy vehicles, and achieve mass production of solid-state batteries in 2026.
In December 2023, Geely's Zeekr brand held an official press conference for the first pure electric sedan, the Zeekr 007. At the press conference, An Conghui, President of Geely Holding Group and CEO of ZEEKR, revealed that ZEEKR 007 provides users with two power batteries, namely ZEEKR's self-developed gold brick battery and CATL's Kirin battery.
Statistics show that by the end of 2023, at least 10 domestic and foreign car companies have officially announced their self-developed battery plans.
From an operational point of view, the self-developed batteries of car companies are not only based on the consideration of cost control, but also based on the consideration of their own first-class chain security. At the beginning of 2023, lithium carbonate, the raw material of batteries, is crazy, and car companies, as the terminal link of automobile manufacturing, have become the ultimate bearers of high battery costs.
In 2023, except for a few new energy vehicle companies such as BYD and Ideal, most new energy vehicle companies and traditional car companies will still be in a state of loss, and the high proportion of battery costs will become one of the most direct reasons for the self-developed batteries of car companies. In addition, from the perspective of first-class chain security, the control of the whole chain of automobile production will also help to alleviate the "dominance" situation of battery manufacturers to a certain extent.
However, some analysts believe that car companies make batteries as a "cross-border" behavior. From a professional point of view, the cooperation between car manufacturers and battery companies is more conducive to ensuring the health of their own ** chain. Xin Chun lithium battery analysts pointed out, "the threshold of the production of battery cells, technology precipitation and product yield, straight-through rate, cost, etc., are not easy for cross-border enterprises, traditional battery companies continue to develop technology precipitation for many years, not car companies can catch up, battery factory technology will only be strong." ”