Yesterday**all-day** adjustment, the gem fell more than 3% and hit a new low for adjustment, and the Shanghai Composite Index fell back to 2,900 points. As of **, the Shanghai Composite Index fell 092%, the Shenzhen Component Index fell 206%, the GEM index fell 349%, and northbound funds sold a net of 5 throughout the day9.2 billion yuan. (Data**: Straight flush, past performance of the index is not indicative of the future).
What is the reason for the large market segment? We have sorted out the latest interpretation of the Macro Strategy Department of the South ** for your reference.
First, there are concerns about Sino-US relations. On the one hand, yesterday's rumors of "Trump's proposal for global taxation" in the market led to market concerns that if Trump wins the new election, there may be a new tax policy.
On the other hand, according to a report by the Chinese Embassy in the United States, a number of Chinese students have recently been interrogated, harassed, and repatriated to China by U.S. border law enforcement officers for no reason when they entered Washington Dulles International Airport. All of these factors may have disrupted short-term market sentiment.
Second, during the performance forecast disclosure period, investors avoid the risk of performance fluctuations. At present, it coincides with the intensive disclosure window period of annual report performance forecasts, and out of concern that the performance of some companies is less than expected, investors may be more inclined to focus on stability in the short term, and in this case, the growth-oriented GEM will be negatively affected.
Market review and interpretation
Looking back at the market performance last week, the market showed a "V" shape**, with the SSE 50 and CSI 300** performing better, and the performance of entrepreneurship and the science and technology innovation board was poor. In terms of style, the undervaluation style performed well, the value continued to be stronger than the growth, and the market sentiment was significantly repaired, and there were signs of recovery at the bottom.
The Southern ** Macro Strategy Department believesThe current sentiment and valuation of A-shares are in the bottom recovery range, combined with the multiple favorable policy catalysts since last week, the downside risk is judged to be limited. Structurally, we are optimistic about the dumbbell configuration of "bonus + small cap".
In the short term, the market sentiment is still in the bottom recovery channel, and the price and volume perspectives are relatively healthy; The money-making effect of the all-A and ordinary ** indices has rebounded at the bottom, and it is still on the lower edge of the range, which also implies that the downside risk is limited.
In the medium term, the FED model has entered an extreme range, and the current CSI 300 risk premium quantile of P95 is already more extreme than the two bottoms during the epidemic (March 2020 and October 2022), similar to the level at the end of 2018 (the CSI 300 exceeded the level at the end of 2018).
Even if we refer to the period of 2012 and 2014, it seems that the FED model is somewhat "invalid", but it is only the odds are poor, that is, the index continues to have little room for ** after the valuation returns to a reasonable range, but the winning rate is still good, that is, after entering the state of deep extremes, it may usually appear within 1 quarter**.
Finally, from the perspective of historical review, in terms of dividend low volatility index, in the medium term, there are certain downside risks in the dividend low volatility index from the perspective of absolute return and relative return: on the one hand, wind all A may not be absent from almost all previous 20%** interval dividend index, and it is necessary to be vigilant against the risk of making up for the fall at the end of the bear market.
On the other hand, the relative trend of the dividend low wave and the wind all A has reached a more extreme position, if the market improves, the dividend index is likely to underperform all A. However, from a short-term perspective of turnover rate, the dividend index has not yet entered a state of emotional overheating, so if the market maintains the first market, the dividend index advantage is still there.
In small-cap stocks, sentiment indicators are upward in the short term, and short-term sentiment is expected to continue; In the quarterly dimension, considering that macro credit is mainly stable, it is more likely that small caps will prevail between large and small caps. (Data**: Compiled by the Macro Strategy Department of the South**, historical past performance does not predict the future).
Macroeconomic data interpretation
After reviewing the market performance, let's take a look at the macro fundamentals, starting from January 25, 2024, the central bank will reduce the relending and rediscount rates for small rural support, and will cut the RRR by 50bps across the board. In order to consolidate and enhance the positive trend of economic recovery, the People's Bank of China decided to cut the reserve requirement ratio by 0.0 on February 55 percentage points, providing liquidity to the market by 1 trillion yuan.
And on January 25, the refinancing and rediscount interest rate for supporting agriculture and small enterprises was lowered from 2% to 175%, the above measures will help to drive the LPR downward. It is worth noting that since 2022, the central bank has generally cut the RRR by 25bp. The RRR cut has returned to 50bp, exceeding market expectations, what signal has been released? What is the impact on the market?
The view of the macro strategy department is that the central bank announced the adoption of RRR cuts and targeted interest rate cuts at the current point in time, releasing a signal of monetary policy easing, which is conducive to stabilizing the market, strengthening confidence, and consolidating and enhancing the positive trend of economic recovery.
In addition, Guangzhou optimized and adjusted the purchase restriction policy, once again leading the relaxation of first-tier cities. 1.On the 27th, the Guangzhou Municipal General Office issued a policy, which proposed that "within the scope of the purchase restriction area, the purchase of housing with a construction area of more than 120 square meters (excluding 120 square meters) will not be included in the scope of purchase restrictions", which means that the improved demand will be further released. It is expected that other cities may follow suit. At present, the rhythm of real estate sales is still dominated by seasonality, and we will continue to pay attention to the changes in real estate sales in the future.
In general, we are currently in a vacuum of macroeconomic and financial statements, so the direction of policy winds will become a macro variable that the market will pay more attention to.
Whether it is last week's larger-than-expected RRR cut or Guangzhou's favorable policy of restricting purchase and opening up, it shows the determination of the decision-makers to stabilize economic expectations, and emotionally helps to improve the investor preference of the capital market. Historically, A-shares may have obvious spring agitation in February**, and with the gradual development of future policies, this year may still be expected.
What do you think about the follow-up market
After talking about the macro fundamentals, investors are more concerned about how to go in the future?
In terms of the bond market, the Macro Strategy Department of the South believes that the bond market is more in the medium term and short-term. Last week, the monetary policy took the lead in landing, the central bank officially announced the RRR cut and structural interest rate cuts, the bond market is good to cash, and the short-term bond market is expected to be biased. For the bond market, the medium-term trend of the bond market is still more than when the allocation of funds is strong at the beginning of the year, the equity is weak, and the fundamentals are bottoming out.
Overseas, easing trade has swayed as the U.S. economy beat expectations. U.S. economic data showed resilience last week, with expectations for the Federal Reserve's interest rate cut swinging and Treasury yields broadly flat.
Looking ahead, the most critical factor in maintaining the current decision on whether the Fed will start a "precautionary rate cut" is the downward pace of inflation. In addition, the December PCE inflation data released last week showed that the core PCE inflation will fall back to 2 in December9%, faster than the Fed's judgment.
It is expected that the downward trend of U.S. inflation will remain smooth in the first quarter, and U.S. Treasury yields are expected to follow inflation and resume the downward trend.
Investment is risky, and you need to be cautious when entering the market).