Standard Chartered experts said the medium-term economic outlook remains positive, and in order to maintain growth momentum, Vietnam needs to develop infrastructure and reduce carbon emissions. In the recently released Vietnam Global Research Report, "Vietnam – Stronger, but Not Easier", Standard Chartered Bank Vietnam** is expected to grow by 6 percent in 20247%, and the growth rate is expected to reach 62% and up to 6 in the second half of the year9%。
Mr. Tim Leolahaphan, Thailand and Vietnam Economist at Standard Chartered Bank, said: "Vietnam's medium-term economic outlook remains positive. To maintain growth momentum and competitiveness, Vietnam needs to develop infrastructure and reduce carbon emissions. ”
Economists at Standard Chartered Bank said retail sales and industrial production remained strong despite the recent correction. The in-and-out movement has begun to recover, but e-commerce has not yet shown obvious signs of recovery. The recovery in foreign direct investment (FDI) remains weak, and signs of a strong recovery in FDI inflows require a faster pace of GDP growth. Global** challenges can be a major risk.
Inflation is expected to grow from 3.2 in 2023 due to fears of a return3% to 5 in 20245%。Standard Chartered expects monetary easing to end soon as Vietnam's economy is on the road to recovery. Despite the possibility of a rate cut, the bank expects interest rates to remain unchanged. The refinancing rate is expected to remain at 45%, then 50 basis points in Q4.
Mr. Tim Lilahapan added: "We expect the central bank to develop a balance between supporting the economic recovery and tackling rising inflation and monetary weakness. Inflation and the large gap between spending and income can lead to the risk of profit-seeking behavior and financial instability. ”
Standard Chartered Bank also said that it expects the VND to continue to face challenges, with the USD/VND exchange rate expected to reach 2 by the end of 2024VND 40,000. Vietnam's foreign exchange reserves are expected to resume growth when the US dollar weakens.
Despite the many difficulties, Vietnam's economy has achieved positive results in 2023, indicating that the economy continues to show a new recovery momentum, and the growth rate in the next quarter will be higher than that of the previous quarter.
Specifically, according to the General Statistics Office of Vietnam, Vietnam's economic growth in 2023 is expected to be about 505%；Of these, the first quarter was 341% compared to 425% compared to 5 in the third quarter47%, compared to about 672%。
In the last months of the year, Vietnam's industry tended to recover aggressively, resulting in an industrial growth rate of 686%, with a growth rate of 302%。
Vietnam's construction industry has benefited from the breakthrough development of public investment funds, the cooling of some building materials**, the reduction of bank interest rates and the attraction of a large number of foreign direct investment funds. The construction industry grew by 932%, the highest recorded in the previous three quarters and the highest level in the fourth quarter of the calendar year 2020-2023.
In the fourth quarter of 2023, the service sector in some markets continued to maintain a stable growth rate since the beginning of the year, such as: wholesale and retail trade; The repair volume of motor vehicles such as automobiles and motorcycles increased by 988%；Warehousing and transportation increased by 997%；Accommodation and food services grew by 885%。
Experts believe that Vietnam's economic growth in 2023 will be supported by many favorable factors. That is, the macroeconomy remains stable, and the effective combination of fiscal and monetary policies helps control inflation within a safe range. The agricultural sector remains the "backbone" of the economy. The service sector is gradually recovering, and tourism activities have become a bright spot. In addition, industrial activity gradually recovered, and the industrial production index showed a slight growth trend. At the same time, efforts to boost capital spending for public investment are also an important driver of Vietnam's economic growth.