Two years after Russia was sanctioned, how is he doing now?
Russia's invasion of Ukraine in February 2022 sparked strong condemnation and sanctions from the international community. The United States, the United Kingdom, the European Union, and countries such as Australia, Canada, and Japan have imposed more than 16,500 sanctions on Russia aimed at weakening Russia's economic, military, and political power.
Russia's foreign exchange reserves, bank assets, ** and diamonds, the aviation industry, oligarchic wealth and the oil industry have all been hit hard. Many Western companies have also withdrawn from the Russian market, leading to a decline in the level of consumption and quality of life in Russia. Two years after Russia was sanctioned, how is he doing now? Does he really have hard power and is not afraid of any international sanctions?
Russia's leader, Vladimir Putin, has always insisted that Russia will not succumb to Western pressure and will not give up its claims to Ukraine. He believes that Western sanctions are "malicious interference" and "double standards" against Russia, and a "declaration of war" against Russia. He said that Russia has sufficient capabilities and resources to respond to any challenges and threats. He also pointed out that Russia is not alone, but has a wide range of international friends and partners, such as China, India, Iran, Syria, Venezuela, Turkey and other countries. He claimed that Russia's sanctions have instead promoted Russia's independent innovation and self-reliance, and strengthened Russia's national and international status.
However, is it really what Putin says it is? Is the economic and social situation in Russia really able to withstand Western sanctions? Can Russia's international relations and strategic interests really be guaranteed and developed? Can public opinion and domestic stability in Russia really be maintained and strengthened? In this article, I will analyze the current situation and prospects of Russia two years after being sanctioned, as well as the strengths and weaknesses of Russia's hard and soft power, from the following four aspects.
First, the economic aspect.
Russia's economy has been hit hard by Western sanctions. According to the International Monetary Fund (IMF), Russia's gross domestic product (GDP) increased from 17 trillion dollars, down to 1. in 2023$2 trillion, a decrease of 29%. Russia's GDP per capita increased from 1$20,000, down to $8,000 in 2023, a decrease of 33%. Russia's inflation rate increased from 49%, up to 15. in 20236%。Russia's unemployment rate increased from 59%, up to 12. in 20233%。Russia's poverty rate increased from 121%, up to 21. in 20234%。Russia's external debt increased from 4 in 2021$7 trillion, rising to $6 in 2023$2 trillion, an increase of 32%. Russia's ** deficit increased from 1$300 million, up to $1 in 2023$800 billion, an increase of 140,000 times.
Russia's economic structure has also been seriously distorted. Russia's economy has always been highly dependent on oil and gas exports, which account for more than 60% of its total exports. However, due to the Western embargo and price cap, Russia's oil and gas exports have fallen sharply. According to the International Energy Agency (IEA), Russia's oil production increased from 1100 million barrels per day, down to 0800 million barrels per day, down 27%. Russia's oil exports increased from 0500 million barrels per day, down to 0300 million barrels per day, a decrease of 40%. Russian oil** fell from $63 per barrel in 2021 to $40 per barrel in 2023, a decrease of 37%. Russia's gas production increased from 2 in 20211 trillion cubic meters, down to 1. in 20235 trillion cubic meters, a decrease of 29%. Russia's gas exports increased from 08 trillion cubic meters, down to 0. in 20234 trillion cubic meters, a decrease of 50%. Russian natural gas** fell by 50% from $6 per MMBtu in 2021 to $3 per MMBtu in 2023. Russia's oil and gas revenues increased from 3600 billion dollars, down to 1. in 2023$500 billion, a decrease of 58 percent.
Russia's economic development has also been seriously hampered. Due to the technological embargo imposed by the West, Russia's progress and innovation in high-tech fields such as military industry, aviation, aerospace, nuclear energy, information, and communications have been restricted. Due to the financial blockade of the West, Russian businesses and individuals have difficulty accessing foreign capital and credit, leading to a contraction of investment and consumption. Due to the embargo on goods from the West, Russia's production and sales in traditional sectors such as agriculture, manufacturing, and services have been hit. Due to the ban on personnel from the West, Russia's exchanges and cooperation in the fields of education, culture, tourism, sports and other soft power fields have been weakened.
To sum up, Russia's economy has been hit hard by Western sanctions, which has led to serious problems and difficulties in the size, structure and development of its economy. Russia's economic hard power has significantly declined. Russia's economic soft power has also weakened significantly. Russia's economic outlook is not optimistic, and it needs to undergo profound reforms and adjustments to adapt to changes in the international situation and the growth of domestic demand.
Second, the social aspect.
Russian society has also been affected by Western sanctions. As a result of the economic recession and hardship, the standard and quality of living of the Russian people have declined. According to the Federal Statistical Service of Russia (Rosstat), the population of Russia increased from 14.4 billion people, down to 1. in 20234.1 billion people, a decrease of 2%. Russia's birth rate increased from 11 per 1,000 people in 20216, down to 10 per 1,000 people in 20232, a decrease of 12%. The mortality rate of the population in Russia increased from 13 per thousand people in 20213, rising to 14 per 1,000 people in 20238, an increase of 11%. The natural growth rate of the population of Russia increased from -1 per thousand people in 20217, down to -4 per 1,000 people in 20236, a decrease of 171%. The degree of population aging in Russia increased from 19 per 100 people in 20216, rising to 21 per 100 people in 20234, an increase of 9%. There has also been a deterioration in the health of the population in Russia. According to the World Health Organization (WHO), life expectancy in Russia increased from 72 in 20216 years old, down to 70 in 20238 years old, a decrease of 2%. The infant mortality rate in Russia increased from 5 per 1,000 people in 20218, rising to 6 per 1,000 people in 20234, an increase of 10%. Incidence and mortality from chronic and infectious diseases such as cardiovascular diseases, cancer, diabetes, AIDS, hepatitis, tuberculosis and others have increased in Russia.
There has also been unrest and ** in Russian society. Due to the difficulties and dissatisfaction of people's livelihood, the trust and support of the Russian people for ** have declined. According to the Levada Center, an independent Russian polling agency, Putin's approval rating in Russia fell from 64% in 2021 to 48% in 2023, a drop of 25%. Russia's approval rating fell from 51% in 2021 to 38% in 2023, a drop of 25%. Russia's ruling United Russia party's support fell by 30% from 40% in 2021 to 28% in 2023. The activities and momentum of the opposition and civil society in Russia have also increased. Russia's opposition leader Navalny's approval rating rose from 20% in 2021 to 32% in 2023, an increase of 60%, according to the European-Russian Forum, a non-leading organization in Russia. Opposition organizations in Russia, such as the Future of Russia (FBK), the Russian Freedom Association (FMA), the Union of Civil Society of Russia (ACS), etc., have also launched a number of demonstrations online and on the streets, demanding that Putin release political prisoners, stop aggression against Ukraine, and restore relations with the West. Separatism and nationalism among ethnic minorities and regions in Russia have also risen. According to the Russian Center for the Study of Ethnic Problems (RNC), a non-leading organization in Russia, demands and actions for autonomy and independence in the minority regions of Chechnya, Dagestan, Tatarstan, Bashkortostan, Tuva, Yakutia, Kalmykia have increased. The economic and social backwardness and imbalance in Russia's Siberia, the Far East, the North Caucasus and other remote regions have also triggered dissatisfaction and revolt against the country.
To sum up, Russian society has suffered from the impact of Western sanctions, which has led to serious problems and difficulties in its social structure, situation and development. The hard power of society in Russia has significantly weakened. Russia's social soft power has also declined significantly. The social outlook in Russia is not precarious, and effective governance and reconciliation are needed in order to maintain the unity of the country and the harmony of the nation.
Third, the international aspect.
Russia's international relations have also been challenged by Western sanctions. As a result of the aggression against Ukraine, Russia's relations with the West have reached a freezing point. Russia is excluded from international organizations and mechanisms, such as the UN Security Council, NATO, the European Union, the G7, the G8, the Council of Europe, the Organization for Security and Cooperation in Europe, etc. Dialogue and cooperation between Russia and the West in the political, economic, military, cultural, humanitarian and other fields have been interrupted or reduced. Russia's mutual trust and mutual benefit with the West is undermined or weakened. The conflict and confrontation between Russia and the West is intensified or escalated. Russia's reputation and influence in the international community have also been damaged. According to Gallup, a non-governmental organization in the United States, Russia's international image has dropped from 29 per 100 people in 2021 to 18 per 100 people in 2023, a drop of 38%. Russia's international support fell from 24 per 100 people in 2021 to 15 per 100 people in 2023, a drop of 38%. Russia's international opposition rose from 66 per 100 in 2021 to 75 per 100 in 2023, an increase of 14%.
Russia's international relations have also been affected in a mixed light. Due to the antagonism with the West, Russia has intensified its cooperation with other countries and regions. Russia's relations with China have reached an all-time high. Exchanges and coordination between Russia and China in the political, economic, military, cultural, scientific and technological fields are constantly increasing. Russia and China are also becoming more and more consistent in their positions and actions in international affairs. Cooperation between Russia and China under multilateral frameworks such as the Shanghai Cooperation Organization, BRICS, and APEC has also deepened. Russia and China have also carried out strategic cooperation in the areas of the Belt and Road Initiative and the Eurasian Economic Union, Arctic development, and space exploration. Relations between Russia and India have also maintained their traditional friendship and mutual trust. Cooperation between Russia and India in the political, economic, military, cultural, scientific and technological fields is also constantly expanding. Coordination and support between Russia and India in international affairs have also been strengthened. Cooperation between Russia and India under multilateral frameworks such as the Shanghai Cooperation Organization, BRICS, and APEC has also deepened. Russia and India have also carried out strategic cooperation in the fields of nuclear energy, missiles, aviation, and aerospace. Russia's relations with Iran, Syria, Venezuela, Turkey and other countries have also improved and developed. Cooperation between Russia and these countries in the political, economic, military, cultural, scientific and technological fields has also increased. Coordination and mutual assistance between Russia and these countries in international affairs have also been strengthened. Russia and these countries have also increased their influence in the Middle East, Latin America, Africa and other regions.
However, Russia's international relations are also facing enormous risks and challenges. The confrontation between Russia and the West not only harms Russia's international interests, but also threatens world peace and security. The military confrontation between Russia and the West could trigger a local or even full-scale war. Russia's economic confrontation with the West could trigger a global recession and crisis. The political confrontation between Russia and the West may provoke international chaos and chaos. The cultural confrontation between Russia and the West may trigger human estrangement and hostility. Russia's cooperation with other countries and regions is also not completely harmonious and equal. Although Russia's relations with China are ostensibly a comprehensive strategic partnership of coordination, in reality there are also rivalries and contradictions. The interests of Russia and China in Central Asia, Eastern Europe, the Arctic and other regions are not entirely aligned. Cooperation between Russia and China in the fields of energy, technology, markets and other fields is also not completely mutually beneficial and reciprocal. The coordination and support between Russia and China in international affairs is also not completely consistent and firm. Russia's relations with India, although ostensibly a special and privileged strategic partnership, are in fact subject to change and pressure. The interests of Russia and India in Pakistan, Afghanistan, the Middle East and other regions are not entirely aligned. Cooperation between Russia and India in the fields of energy, technology, and markets is not completely stable and smooth. Russia's coordination and support with India in international affairs is also not completely unconditional and unreserved. Russia's relations with Iran, Syria, Venezuela, Turkey and other countries, although on the surface friendly and cooperative relations, in fact there are hidden dangers and crises. Russia's cooperation with these countries in the political, economic, military, cultural, scientific and technological fields is not completely selfless and fearless. Russia's cooperation and mutual assistance with these countries in international affairs is not completely carefree and carefree. The influence of Russia and these countries in the Middle East, Latin America, Africa and other regions is not completely invincible and invincible.
To sum up, Russia's international relations have been challenged by Western sanctions, which have led to serious problems and difficulties in its international environment, status, and development. Russia's international hard power has been clearly damaged. Russia's international soft power has also declined significantly. Russia's international prospects are uncertain, and active diplomacy and cooperation are needed to restore relations with the West, maintain relations with other countries and regions, and promote world peace and development.
IV. Conclusions.
Two years after Russia was sanctioned, how is he doing now? Does he really have hard power and is not afraid of any international sanctions? From the above analysis, it can be seen that Russia's economy, society, and international relations have been seriously affected by Western sanctions, which has led to an increase in its domestic and international problems and difficulties. Russia's hard and soft power has declined and weakened significantly. Russia's prospects and development face enormous risks and challenges. Russia cannot rely only on its own hard power, resisting and countering Western sanctions. Nor can Russia rely solely on the cooperation of other countries and regions to compensate for and compensate for Western sanctions. Russia needs to improve its soft power, change and adjust its policies and behaviors to adapt to and respond to Western sanctions. Russia needs to seek peace and dialogue, restore and improve relations with the West in order to ease and eliminate Western sanctions. Russia needs to uphold peace and cooperation and maintain and develop relations with other countries and regions in order to enhance and enhance its international status and influence. Only in this way can Russia truly get out of the shadow of sanctions and achieve its own prosperity and strength for world peace and development.
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