In 2023, although the focus of global attention will be mainly on the Russia-Ukraine conflict and the Palestinian-Israeli conflict, the situation on the Korean Peninsula will still be the focus of attention of the international community from time to time. The United States has deployed naval aircraft carriers, nuclear submarines, and strategic bombers in South Korea, the DPRK and the ROK have launched military reconnaissance satellites one after another, and the US-ROK joint military exercises are getting closer and closer to the DPRK. Against this background, entering 2024, Pyongyang has made its own judgment on the situation on the Korean Peninsula. North Korea believes that a conflict between the North and the South is most likely this year and is worried about U.S. involvement.
North Korea judged that the trigger for the conflict between the North and the South was the actions of the South Korean side. In a January 4 report, KCNA harshly criticized South Korea's military provocations, arguing that 2024 is "the year most likely for conflict between the two Koreas." Beginning on December 29 last year, South Korea conducted a seven-day military exercise, including winter training for special forces, artillery firing and maneuver training for the army, artillery firing and maneuver training at sea. The series of exercises is designed to validate the interoperability of the ROK and U.S. militaries in mobility, firepower, and command and control assets to improve the alliance's operational execution capabilities. South Korea's ** Yoon Suk-yeol ordered during a visit to the South Korean Army's Fifth Infantry Division on January 2 that "if you are provoked, you can retaliate first and then report it." This Fifth Infantry Division is deployed near the "38th Parallel", and Yoon Suk-yeol's statement has been very clear. Such a statement is very dangerous for the situation on the peninsula, and if the two Korean armies clash on the border, this order may become the fuse for the expansion of the conflict.
In North Korea's judgment, there is no direct mention of concern for South Korea, but the involvement of the United States. The Russian Satellite News Agency mentioned in the report that the United States may turn its attention to the Korean Peninsula after extricating itself from the Russia-Ukraine conflict and the Palestinian-Israeli conflict. For the Russian-Ukrainian conflict, the United States has fallen deeper and deeper, and Ukraine has no possibility of defeating Russia. The United States has run out of patience and wants to end the conflict as soon as possible. In addition, after two years of aid to Ukraine, Ukraine has no more resources, and the Republicans have stopped supporting military aid to Ukraine after taking control of Congress. Therefore, the withdrawal of the United States from Ukraine has become an option that must be considered. For the Palestinian-Israeli conflict, the United States has withdrawn the aircraft carrier USS Ford, and Israel has also announced the withdrawal of its troops from Gaza, maintaining only non-stop "mopping-up" operations. In this way, the pressure on Israel is much less, and the United States can gradually withdraw from the Middle East. Once the U.S. succeeds in withdrawing from Ukraine and the Middle East, their eyes are likely to turn to North Korea, as the Korean Peninsula has been the region with the most frequent U.S. nuclear-related deployments in recent years. It is impossible for the United States to have no ideas. They could set the peninsula's powder keg on fire, partly to contain China, and partly to signal to Asia-Pacific allies that the United States has been protecting them. In addition, igniting a war on the peninsula would also cause a lot of trouble for China, which could lead to a chain reaction that would further increase China's pressure in the Taiwan Strait and the South China Sea, thereby slowing down China's development, which is in the interest of the United States to maintain its hegemonic position. In addition, the U.S. attack on China will also help Biden's election results, and the White House may have already made plans accordingly.
According to North Korea's judgment and analysis, there is a high possibility of a North-South conflict in 2024, and the key lies in whether the United States intervenes. In the current global situation, the United States has freed its hands from the Russia-Ukraine conflict and the Palestinian-Israeli conflict, and the Korean Peninsula has been the focus of attention of the United States. North Korea's possession of nuclear weapons has become a major concern for the United States, which hopes to suppress North Korea by igniting a war on the peninsula, while also causing problems for China in order to maintain its hegemony. China must remain vigilant about all this, because turmoil on the peninsula could have an impact on China's security and development. Faced with such a situation, China needs to formulate corresponding countermeasures to safeguard its national interests and security. China should also strengthen exchanges and cooperation with the DPRK to jointly safeguard regional peace and stability.
1. North Korea believes that 2024 is the most likely year for the North-South conflict to erupt.
2. South Korea's recent military moves and statements have brought hostility and a sense of crisis to North Korea.
3.North Korea fears U.S. involvement in the affairs of the peninsula and believes that the U.S. may ignite a war on the peninsula to contain China.
4.The deteriorating situation on the peninsula has the potential to lead to a chain reaction that will affect China's security and development.
5.China needs to formulate corresponding countermeasures, strengthen exchanges and cooperation with the DPRK, and maintain regional peace and stability.