Text: Yang Guoying.
I repeated the point for two more months:
There is a high probability that the bottom area will be in the whole yearDot;
The market will be sharply divided throughout the yearThe ** will still continue to make new lows.
In addition, last week I said that before the Chinese New Year, the Shanghai Stock Exchange should not break through the bottom on January 23.
Continuing the discussion**.
In the past year, it is clear that our economy has completely bid farewell to the epidemic, but why is the performance still so poor?
The current market is falling endlessly, even if there is a gap in the national team, it still can't hold on, why is this?
On the basis of the sharp decline in the past year, in the case of no bubble in the static view, the first month of 2024 will be even more outrageous, what is the reason for this?
To discuss this issue, we still have to grasp the root cause.
The root cause of this, in fact, after the overseas research half a year ago, I have clearly and repeatedly talked about itIt is the withdrawal of global capital and the global industrial chain that has structurally changed our valuation logic. Of course, there are also factors such as the Fed's strong maintenance of ultra-high interest rate differentials with ours, which will not be discussed in today's article.
And by no means what has been hotly discussed recently, what is the short selling of restricted stocks, what snowball knocking in, these are actually only the last factors, they are only derivatives after the change of our valuation logic, think about it, our total securities lending scale is only about 70 billion, accounting for only 4% of the total financing scale, which also includes the securities lending of non-restricted stocks, excluding the securities lending of non-restricted shares, in fact, the so-called securities lending scale of restricted shares, the whole is negligible.
The withdrawal of global capital and global industrial chains is the inevitability of the ultimate game between China and the United States.
The global turmoil in the past two years has accelerated the overall position of developed countries towards the United States, and then further accelerated the withdrawal of global capital and global industrial chains, which will inevitably lead to the negative impact of both our economy and the expected ** valuation in the past year that far exceeds the expectations of the vast majority of people.
Guiding the withdrawal of U.S. capital and U.S.-led industrial chains from China actually began in 2018.
However, in the first few years, the overall effect of Trump's guidance is not obvious, not only its developed country allies do not cooperate very much (each has its own calculations), but even the American industrial capitalists do not cooperate very much, Apple's production capacity in China has not been reduced much before 2021, and Tesla has increased its investment in China with our policy support.
However, fromStarting in the second half of the year, everything changed.
Starting from the second half of 2022, not only American capital and the US-led industrial chain, but also the capital and industrial chain of the entire developed country are accelerating their withdrawal from China as a whole.
What led to this drastic change is not that Biden is more powerful than Trump, but that the outbreak of the Russia-Ukraine war in February 2022 and the continuation of the war to this day.
The outbreak of the Russian-Ukrainian war, excluding the early luck of some European countries to reconcile, basically, from the second half of 2022, almost all developed countries have chosen to completely side with the United States - European countries and Japan and South Korea completely side with the United States, which in fact, and our relatively neutral position on the Russian-Ukrainian war, in essence, are two routes.
Diplomatic standing in turbulent times will inevitably have a series of far-reaching effects on the economy and industry.
If we look at the sharp decline in our exports to the United States and Europe in 2023, we should be able to feel this cold wave from developed countries.
The cold wave of developed countries on us is more reflected in the withdrawal of global capital and the global industrial chain from us - after all, the dominance of global capital, the dominance of the global industrial chain, in essence, only the developed countries can have - of course, today, we also have a place in the global capital and the global industrial chain, but, on the whole, we are far from having the strength to dominate the world.
What does it mean for developed countries to dominate the withdrawal of global capital and global industrial chains?
This means,Under the group of the United States, these developed countries began to accelerate the layout of de-Chinese globalization.
And we, in fact, can only lead some emerging economies and open up another globalization by ourselves-- As mentioned above, only developed countries can have the dominance of global capital and global industrial chains, and it is conceivable that we will lead some emerging economies to open up another globalization with our own leadership, and the road ahead will be very difficult and full of uncertainties in the medium term.
In such a context, how should we look at our **?
There is no bubble in static, but the bubble may be relatively large in dynamics.
This is because,Under the accelerated withdrawal of capital and industrial chains in developed countries, and under the globalization of developed countries that have begun to accelerate the layout of de-sinicization, our valuation logic has undergone earth-shaking changes.
The original globalization is the globalization of China as a global manufacturing center, China's economy benefits, China's manufacturing industry benefits, and the valuation of the industries and listed companies we are involved in is also valued against globalization.
Now, the developed countries led by the United States, they have begun to pursue de-Chinese globalization, and we have no choice but to choose globalization without developed countries, which is not to say that the original valuation of benchmarking globalization is completely gone, but at least the valuation of globalization has been reduced by half.
The global valuation has been reduced by at least half, which has a great impact on many industries and listed companies that were originally benchmarked against globalization, such as our Internet, which was originally benchmarked against the global valuation, PE can be 40 times, 50 times or even higher, but the global valuation is now reduced by at least half, then the overall valuation of the Internet industry will be at least halved or even more.
Another example is our manufacturing industry, which was originally the manufacturing industry that existed as a global brand chain in developed countries, in the era of global valuation, as long as the demand for global brands in developed countries (such as Apple, Samsung, Nike, Adi, etc.) rises, then the demand for our supporting manufacturing industry in the global market will also rise almost in the same proportion.
However, now the developed countries led by the United States have begun to accelerate the return of industries and friendly outsourcing, and our manufacturing industry, especially the manufacturing industry that originally existed as a global brand chain in developed countries, has no longer exists, and its valuation is to be cut in half.
Under the accelerated globalization of developed countries to promote de-Chinaization, many of our small and medium-sized listed companies have no overall valuation basis.
In the past, the overall valuation of small and medium-sized listed companies has been relatively high, and the logic behind it lies in the fact that the previous globalization background and the globalization background of China as a global manufacturing center make us have unlimited expectations for the high growth of small and medium-sized listed companies.
However, now, the original globalization background does not exist, and the market not only has infinite expectations for the high growth of these small and medium-sized listed companies, but has begun to worry infinitely about whether some small and medium-sized listed companies can survive in the future - this kind of market sentiment that quickly switches from infinite optimism to infinite pessimism, we look at the trend of the science and technology innovation board and the growth enterprise board in the past year, and the overall should be clearly felt (of course, there is also the derivative impact of the registration system).
Caution must prevail.
2024,**It's not that there is no opportunity, there must be an opportunity, although it hasn't arrived yet, but,There will be no global opportunities, but only interstitial opportunities and local opportunities.