200 million kilowatts! The consequence of knocking out Chinese bamboo poles is to sell solar panels

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** Financial gossip

Author of Financial Gossip

* This is how "moody", two or three months ago, the photovoltaic industry was still bearish:Industrial winter, "the strongest involution in history", overcapacity.

But in fact, an industry has ups and downs, and at present, China's photovoltaic industry is facing"Supply and demand fluctuations, technological updates, and reshaping of the competitive landscape".During this critical period, the level of competition in the industry is unprecedented.

This time**, it may be because in November, the installed capacity of the photovoltaic industry improved.

Of course, ** has been so bleak that shareholders may just need a **price** reason.

No matter how the market is, it should be praised or praised:The industry is generally **, and China's installed capacity may reach about 200GW in 2023, that is, 200 million kilowatts, accounting for half of the world.

Although the world's first monocrystalline silicon cell was born in the United States, the real power of the photovoltaic industry today is China.

Stumbling along the way, China's photovoltaic enterprises have experienced"Cheating" to "far ahead".of the stage.

Every clean energy development is mostly becauseTraditional energy sources** Question.

At a time when the technology was not yet mature,The cost of generating clean energy is quite high, and there is almost no private willingness to develop clean energy unless it is subsidized.

From 2003 to 2008, under the panic of the market and the manipulation of capital, the internationalskyrocketing, European and American countries have begun to seek the best alternatives——Clean energy

Such as Germany enactedRenewable Energy Act, solar electricity price subsidies, loan discounts.

Spain enactedElectricity Act, which heavily subsidizes clean energy electricity prices.

These two countries have become China's most important export destinations for photovoltaic modules for a certain period of time.

So what is China doing?

In the 90s of the 20th century, in order to solve the problem of no electricity in Xinjiang, Qinghai and other places, China began to lay out auxiliary photovoltaic power stations.

Because the population distribution of the ** area is more scattered and the demand for electricity is less, it is not cost-effective to build a thermal power station specifically.

In order to solve the electricity problem of these people, inThe sun is abundant and the land is sparsely populatedlaid on the steppes and GobiSolar panelsis the best solution.

After subsidies in these countries,The price of solar electricity can finally cover the cost, and some domestic companies have taken a fancy to this outlet and have begun to enter the photovoltaic industry.

2004 was the first year of the outbreak of China's photovoltaic industry.

Although our countryNo technology, no talent, butManpower is cheapYes.

Although the upstream polysilicon and monocrystalline silicon raw materials cannot be produced, and the downstream photovoltaic power stations do not have this technology, they can still be assembled.

Under the advantage of manpower, China's photovoltaic enterprises have "grown savagely".

By 2007, Chinese PV companies had taken over70% of the European market share.

Leeks are "ripe, and it's time to harvest."

BecauseThe technology of upstream materials is mastered abroad, so it is easy for international capital to harvest China's photovoltaic industry.

The praying mantis catches the cicada, the yellow finch is behind, these photovoltaic companies think they are picking up the wool subsidized by Europe and the United States, but in fact, the capital predators behind them are waiting to pick up their wool.

In 2008, on the one hand, there was strong demand, and on the other hand, capital was manipulated behind the scenesPhotovoltaic upstream material silicon material** continues to rise.

At its highest, polysilicon** is even as much as$500One kilogram, in order to bind domestic photovoltaic enterprises, relevant raw material manufacturers throw it out in a timely manner"Long-term contract".

These manufacturers and domestic photovoltaic enterprises agreed, in accordance withAt the time of signing the contract, no matter how much the manufacturer produces, these Chinese companies will buy as much as they want

There are even contracts from some manufacturers that can be called "knocking on the bone and sucking the marrow", directly locking in some enterprisesThe next decade

And some domestic photovoltaic companies, afraid that there is no ceiling for silicon materials, actually signed a contract.

Originally, this model could be more "knocking on the bone and sucking the marrow", but unfortunately, in 2008, the economic crisis came.

Under economic pressure, Europe and the United States have one after anotherWeakening and canceling subsidies, the largest market has lost its advantage, and China's photovoltaic industry has entered a cold winter.

Similarly, because of the demand for **, raw materials from$500 a kilogram is **sharply** to double digits, the manufacturer who once signed the agreement suddenly became a "big wrongdoer".

On the other hand, the Washington Post in the United States suddenly published an article to the effect that:China's PV companies are heavily polluted to the soil.

At a time when some photovoltaic companies are indiscriminately filling up the number and are specially born for "wool picking", it is true that there are some enterprises with relatively high pollution indexes.

But the reporter who published the article found itThe so-called evidence is that "every day workers dump waste on the soil, causing the soil to turn white".

In this article, these scraps are:Silicon tetrachloride, which is highly toxic.

But actually, the things she photographed that made the soil turn white wereSilica, that isComposed of sandThe main substance.

But because of this reporter, or a group of people's smearing, many people still think that it is still believedThe production of photovoltaic panels poses a considerable threat to water and soil

Because of the impact of the article, the Ministry of Environmental Protection also came to the upstream and downstream inspections of the reported enterprises, and the result was no problem.

However, this still makes the already poor market environment of domestic photovoltaic companies worse, and foreign customers have begun to reject domestic photovoltaic companies in consideration of environmental problems.

It's funny,The photovoltaic panels laid in the Gobi Desert have actually helped the Gobi Desert to manage its environment.

Photovoltaic panels built on desertified soil cover the ground, reducing the impact of wind and sand on vegetation.

And to clean the panel, you need to use water, under such moisture,On the bare Gobi Desert, grass grows in the photovoltaic panel park.

And because the grass grew to the extent that it covered the panel, the relevant companies had to send people to cut the grass at first.

The result was seen by the herdsmen, who felt that the grass was cut and wasted, and it was better to use it for grazing sheep.

Sheep are able to eat more, and the problem of overgrazing has been solved.

The grass that grows weakens the sandstorm and reduces the cost of cleaning the photovoltaic panels.

And just like that, on the western Gobi desert, it was formed"PV + sheep".The magical ecological cycle.

Even now, some magazines have not given up on manufacturing".Clean energy is high pollutionStatements.

In July 2022, the journal Science published an article entitled:Paradoxically, cleaner air is contributing to global warming.

The argument of the article is that China's air pollution has fallen due to the development of clean energy, which absorbs heat from the air and mitigates global warming.

Therefore, China's development of clean energy has exacerbated global warming.

Regardless of the facts,In 2008, China's photovoltaic industry did suffer a heavy blow under the blow of the first and economic crisis.

The main problems of the photovoltaic industry at that time were actually two:Raw materials and demand

At the time,The international related raw material giants have a very strict technological blockade against China.

My professors and ** have all negotiated with the German polysilicon giant Wacker, hoping toInvite them to set up a factory in China, trying to"Market for technology"., but still refused.

Without him, such technology is too sensitive, WACKER executives are convincedThe Chinese can't produce polysilicon, just buy their products.

Chinese negotiators told WACKER's top management:"If you don't do this business, China will be able to build it sooner or later. ”

After all, it is not that there is no such technology in China, as early as 1969, the output of polysilicon produced in China exceeded 1 ton.

But these stay more in the lab.

In 2006, Zhongneng Silicon Industry achieved a technological breakthrough in the mass production of polysilicon by combining the original materials and built the first production line in China.

In 2009,GCL-PolyAcquired Zhongneng Silicon Industry and vigorously promoted the construction of polysilicon production lineIn 2010, the global market share increased to 1116%。

Since then, on polysilicon, Chinese people no longer need to look at the faces of Europe and the United States to live.

In 2009, the Copenhagen World Climate Conference was held, which was the focus of the controversy in which Academician Ding Zhongli questioned Chai Jing that "Chinese are not human".

Although according to the opinion of Academician Ding Zhongli,The so-called "carbon peak" and "carbon neutrality" agreed at this conference are nothing more than the "ladder theory" of developed countries.

"When a climber has successfully reached the top, he or she often discards the ladder he relied on to climb to prevent others from climbing to the same height with the help of the same ladder. ”

From 2011 to 2013The "Golden Sun" demonstration project was implementedIt also gives the photovoltaic industry a little room to breathe, and the photovoltaic companies that have slowed down have begun to expand production.

But then, the next action against China's photovoltaic industry in Europe and the United States and other countries eliminated another wave of enterprises.

Because China is able to produce polysilicon independentlyThe production cost has been greatly reduced, and the ** of photovoltaic panels has been reduced again.

And this time, because China can produce polysilicon independently, the international giants can't get the wool of Chinese photovoltaic companies, and they are ruthless.

In December 2011, Europe and the United States announced the launch"Anti-dumping, anti-subsidy".Survey.

The reasons are all ready-madeIf the photovoltaic products of Chinese enterprises are sold so low, they must be losing money to change the market.

How can this operation not be said to be exactly the same as the "anti-dumping and anti-subsidy" investigation carried out by the EU for China's new energy vehicles?

In 2012, Europe and the United States were rightChina exports photovoltaic productsThe tariffs have been sharply adjusted in the United States, and the United States has even adjusted themAbove.

Now, because of the energy crisis and environmental pressure in Europe and the United States,This "double anti" policy has died in name only, and they have to open their doors to China's photovoltaic companies.

But at that time, China's photovoltaic enterprises still mainly relied on the European and American markets, and this "lifeline" was cut off and exceeded350 enterprisesGo belly up.

Although a grain of sand of capital falling on a photovoltaic company is a mountain, this action is also trueEliminated a lot of "indiscriminate" photovoltaic enterprises

In order to support photovoltaic enterprises, a series of documents have been issued in ChinaThe era of electricity subsidyBegin.

Subsidies are not the fundamental solution to the problemIf the cost problem of photovoltaic is not solved for a day, then you will never be able to walk independently, and you can only live on subsidies.

There are quite a few photovoltaic companiesIn order to get subsidies, forcibly expand, as mentioned above GCL Technology.

GCL Technology may feel that the technology is in hand, and other companies have not broken through the new technology so quickly, and have relaxed the research and development of the technology, but have begun to do soPhotovoltaic panels are laid in a large area across the country.

That is, to expand production by relying on subsidies.

However, because too many companies have entered this industry to receive subsidies, the growth rate of subsidies has greatly exceeded the growth rate of subsidies, and in 2018,The arrears of photovoltaic subsidies exceeded 60 billion yuan, and the subsidy amount was repeatedly reduced.

GCL once relied on the subsidy debt to move forward, who knows that the subsidy will be issued later and later.

When the tide recedes, you don't know who is swimming, and in terms of technology, GCL has not made progress in the field of polysilicon, which it is good at, but it is on the other sideMonocrystalline silicon has been the first to achieve technological breakthroughs and greatly reduce costs.

This time, the industry leader is LONGi Green Energy.

After the technological breakthrough, LONGi Green Energy began to expand its production line, and by 2019, it had become the industry leader.

Being in the PV categoryHighly dependent on R&DIn the industry, it is like "sailing against the current, if you don't advance, you will retreat".

Whoever thinks that he can always lead by relying on a temporary technological advantage will be abandoned by the times.

In the past, Europe and the United States were also the first countries and regions to develop the photovoltaic industry, but some capital also destroyed their own markets when they "played" with China's photovoltaic enterprises.

In the United States, where solar cells were invented, it was supposed to be leading in photovoltaic technology, but the initial cost of photovoltaic was still high, and capital was only interested in benefits and was even more reluctant to invest in research and development.

In the past, these companies that mastered technology arrogantly felt that China had no chance to break through technology, and arbitrarily blocked and manipulated upstream and downstream raw materials, but now it is China that is "far ahead".

This year, the situation has reversed, yes"Overcapacity"., but with the "lessons from the past", the surviving photovoltaic enterprises, whodid not dare to relax research and development

I'm afraid that when the market gets better, I will fall behind, which is the so-called"The strongest involution in history".

However, in the long run, the problem of demand is not a problem.

Whether it is China or Europe and the United States, before the goal of "carbon neutrality" is achieved, there will be no demand for photovoltaics.

What do you think about the development of China's photovoltaic enterprises? Feel free to leave your comments and opinions in the comment area.