Flowers style trading? Reveal the whole story of the stock price change of Industrial Bank

Mondo Finance Updated on 2024-02-01

Author丨Zhou Miaomiao.

Editor丨Sun Chaoyi.

December 29, 2023, the last trading day of the yearIndustrial Bank (601166SH) stock price suddenly changed during the late call auction stage, and the auction turnover was 21.6 billion yuan, directly pulling up the sealing plate. As of **, the stock is up 997% to 16$21 shares closed.

This scene is quite similar to the plot of "initial stock price fluctuations" in the listing of clothing companies in the hit TV series "Flowers". Is it film and television stills into reality?

There are different opinions about the reasons for the change. Some people say that "this is the self-help of Fujian Port Group in order to repair the statements", and some people say that this is "under the equity method of accounting, the increase in shares meets the KPI of state-owned assets." ”

On January 6, the Shanghai Stock Exchange issued the "Decision on Disciplinary Punishment of Fujian Port Group Co., Ltd. and its Related Subsidiaries".

On January 9, Fujian Port Group announced that it had actively rectified the problems mentioned in the disciplinary action, and said that the current daily management, production and operation and solvency are normal, and the disciplinary punishment will not have a significant adverse impact on the company's production and operation, financial status and solvency, and will not affect the payment of principal and interest of the company's existing bonds.

2.1.6 billion yuan of funds suddenly entered the market, and IB closed the board

Looking back, on December 29, 2023, the overall trend of A-shares was stable, and the trading volume was not abnormal.

Industrial Bank (601166.)SH) stock price was stable in the intraday trend, but in the late call auction stage, the stock suddenly moved, and the auction turnover was 21.6 billion yuan, directly pulling up the sealing plate. As of **, the stock is up 997% to 1621 yuan shares closed, a thick white line suddenly appeared.

For a while, various speculations emerged in the market, such as market value management, "oolong finger", "national team" entry, quantitative problems, and so on. Many of these investors can't help but think of the start of the A-share bull market after the "Everbright Oolong Index" incident ten years ago, and investors who have been suffering from the market for a long time have begun to look forward to whether this event can become the "introduction" of the recovery of the secondary market.

On the evening of the same day, the Shanghai Stock Exchange issued an announcement stating that after preliminary verification, it was caused by an investor's large declaration of transaction with a significant deviation from the latest transaction price.

IB also issued an announcement in the evening saying that after self-examination and verification, the company's operation was normal, there were no major changes in the internal and external business environment, and there were no major matters that should be disclosed but were not disclosed.

Therefore, the mysterious buyer behind the "Industrial Bank's late limit" has become the focus of the market's attention for a while.

After this incident, the stock price of IB continued to repair the last trading day's limit on the first trading day of 2024, and the stock price of the previous trading day was 851%。

Who is this mystery buyer? On January 6, the veil was lifted. The Shanghai Stock Exchange issued the Decision on Disciplinary Sanctions against Fujian Port Group Co., Ltd. and its Related Subsidiaries.

According to the disciplinary decision, it has been found that Fujian Port Group Co., Ltd. (hereinafter referred to as Fujian Port Group) and its four subsidiaries actually controlled, Fujian Shipping Group Co., Ltd., Fuzhou Port Group, Xiamen Port Holding Group, and Fujian Transportation Group Co., Ltd. (hereinafter referred to as the four subsidiaries), according to the decision of Fujian Port Group, "Industrial Bank" (601166).

According to the disclosure, on the same day, in the ** collective bidding stage, the ** account under the name of Fujian Port Group declared ** Industrial Bank at the price limit for a total of 31 times, a total of 1813510,000 shares, with a turnover of 1330670,000 shares, amounting to about 21.6 billion yuan, accounting for 99% of the total trading volume of the stock during the call auction99%, pulling up the stock price by 97%。

In this regard, the Shanghai Stock Exchange decided to impose a six-month disciplinary sanction on the ** accounts under the name of Fujian Port Group and its four subsidiaries actually controlled.

To repair the financial statements and maintain the debt continuation?

With the "hands behind the scenes"**, investors have more speculation about the event of "the year-end limit of the stock price of Industrial Bank".

Among them, "repair statements" has become the motivation for many investors to speculate. In their view, Fujian Port Group's pull up of the stock price of Industrial Bank at the end of the last trading day of 2023 will restore Fujian Port Group's profit performance in 2023.

Looking back at the stock price performance of IB in 2023, on the whole, the stock price was relatively stable in the first three quarters, but in the range from October 9 to December 28, the stock price fell by 952%, showing a unilateral downward trend.

In view of this situation, some people in the industry speculate that if the group's holdings of Industrial Bank are measured at fair value and its changes are included in the current profit or loss, then the share price of Industrial Bank will directly affect the profit performance of Fujian Port Group.

The reporter found that in recent years, Fujian Port Group and its subsidiaries have continued to increase their holdings in IB and have become important shareholders of IB. iFinD data shows that from August 1, 2022 to November 30, 2023, Fujian Port Group Co., Ltd. and its subsidiaries have cumulatively increased their holdings in Industrial Bank by about 558.6 billion shares, with a total of 581.3 billion shares, with a shareholding ratio of 28%。

According to the group's consolidated financial statements for the third quarter of 2023 and the parent company disclosed by China Money Network, in the first three quarters of last year, the group achieved a total profit of 13$1.7 billion; Net profit 80.7 billion yuan; Net profit attributable to the parent company 44.6 billion yuan.

According to the logic of speculation, if the group does not raise the stock price of IB at the end of the year, and the change of this financial asset is included in the current profit or loss, the group may have 8A floating loss of 600 million yuan may lead to a huge change in the annual profit.

This will further affect the group's credit rating, thereby increasing the cost of financing; At the same time, it may also increase the risk of forced redemption. This will adversely affect the financial leverage performance of Fujian Port Group.

According to the analysis of CCXI in the credit rating report, the group's financial leverage level has increased at the end of 2022 and is at a high level, and there is a certain pressure on the maturity of debts, but it can rely on strong internal liquidity, multiple external financing channels and strong external financing capabilities to achieve the continuation of mature debts, and stable performance is directly linked to financing ability.

It is worth noting that the important premise for the establishment of this statement is that IB** is measured at fair value and its changes are included in the current profit or loss of Fujian Port Group.

But this premise may not be true. According to the credit rating report released by China Chengxin International, the investment income of Fujian Port Group mainly comes from the investment income recognized under the equity method of long-term equity investment.

Under the equity method of accounting, this speculation may be frustrated. The reporter has called a number of well-known accounting firms to inquire whether the stock price changes of the invested companies under the equity method will affect the current profits of the invested companies. The person in charge of a leading accounting firm said that generally speaking, under the equity method of accounting, the change in the stock price of the invested enterprise does not affect the current profit of the invested enterprise, but is accounted for according to the net book assets of the invested enterprise.

Increase the shareholding ratio and complete the assessment target of the SASAC?

If it weren't for the financial statements, then what would be the hand of Fujian Port Group.

In this regard, some investors believe that the main purpose of Fujian Port Group's behavior is to complete the assessment requirements of the state-owned assets system. According to the Tianyancha platform, Fujian State-owned Assets Supervision and Administration Commission is the actual controller of Fujian Port Group, with a shareholding ratio of 4534%。

At the beginning of 2023, the State-owned Assets Supervision and Administration Commission (SASAC) held a meeting of the heads of the first enterprises to make it clear that the goal of "one profit and five rates" for the first enterprises in 2023 is "one increase, one stability and four improvements", and "one increase" is to ensure that the growth rate of total profits is higher than the national GDP growth rate; "Stable" means that the asset-liability ratio remains stable overall; The "four improvements" are the further improvement of the four indicators of return on net assets, R&D investment intensity, total labor productivity, and operating cash ratio.

According to this guessing logic, on the last trading day of 2023, Fujian Port Group passed the spend of 21.6 billion yuan of funds *** Industrial Bank shares, can further increase the shareholding ratio, increase profits, increase dividends, etc., and then meet the assessment goals proposed by the State-owned Assets Supervision and Administration Commission for state-owned central enterprises.

The basis for this speculation lies in equity accounting. The 21st Century Business Herald reporter learned that if the investment enterprise has control, joint control and significant influence on the investee, it must use the equity method for accounting.

According to the list of shareholders who hold less than 5% of the shares but have a significant impact disclosed in the 2023 semi-annual report of Industrial Bank, Fujian Port Group is impressively listed. On May 27, 2023, the General Meeting of Shareholders of IB passed a resolution to appoint supervisors from Fujian Port Group Co., Ltd. to the bank, which can exert significant influence on the bank and constitute a related party of the bank.

At the same time, the group also appeared in the content of major related party transactions disclosed in the semi-annual report of Industrial Bank. It is understood that the 17th meeting of the 10th session of the board of directors of IB deliberated and passed the "Proposal on Giving Related-Party Transaction Quota to Fujian Port Group Co., Ltd. and its Affiliated Enterprises", and agreed to give Fujian Port Group Co., Ltd. and its affiliated enterprises a quota of RMB 44.1 billion.

Therefore, the relevant investors believe that under the equity method of accounting, Fujian Port Group should bear its own share according to the net profit or net loss of IB in the current year, and recognize it as the current investment profit and loss. The higher the proportion of shares, the greater the profit and loss of the current investment, so as to meet the goal of "one increase, one stability and four improvements" proposed by the SASAC.

In addition, according to the credit rating report issued by China Chengxin International, the investment income contributed significantly to the total profit of Fujian Port Group, mainly from the investment income recognized under the equity method of long-term equity investment, including the investment income recognized by the joint venture Huafu ** Co., Ltd., Xiamen International Trust *** Xiamen Rural Commercial Bank shares***, etc.

In the face of many speculations, at present, Fujian Port Group has not responded positively.

In an announcement issued on January 9, the group said that the company has actively rectified the problems mentioned in the disciplinary action, strictly implemented regulatory requirements, and will continue to improve internal controls and strictly abide by regulatory rules.

The group said that at present, the daily management, production and operation and solvency are normal, and the disciplinary action will not have a significant adverse impact on the company's production and operation, financial condition and solvency, and will not affect the payment of principal and interest of the company's existing bonds.

sfc

Editor: Li Yutong, intern: Song Jiayao.

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