Author丨Tang Shaokui Editor:
Editor丨Zhang Weixian.
Figure source丨Figure worm.
Looking back on 2023, in order to promote the steady operation and sustainable and healthy development of the real estate market, we will frequently optimize and adjust policies.
According to the statistics of the Centaline Real Estate Research Institute,In December 2023, a total of 78 optimization and adjustment of various real estate policies were introduced. In 2023, the total number of real estate policy optimization and adjustment will be as high as 1,008 times, and it will remain high for two consecutive years after exceeding 1,000 times for the first time in history in 2022.
In 2023, the real estate policy will mainly focus on financial support, city-specific policies, urban renewal, and new housing changes. However, the actual effect of the policy has not shown the expected lasting effect. Due to the impact of the general environment, the transmission effect of the policy will be weaker than in previous years, and the repair period will be longer, and the current property market situation is still relatively severe.
However, the policy continues to exert force. In the second half of 2023, the regulation policies of first-tier cities will be opened, and market confidence will continue to be restored, and some analysts expect the property market to bottom out in the second half of 2024.
Song Hongwei, research director of Tongce Research Institute, believes that first-tier and core second-tier cities are more sensitive to policies, and the policies are effective, but the timeliness is short, which is an obvious feature, and most of the third-, fourth- and fifth-tier cities have low sensitivity to policies, and the market reaction is not obvious after the introduction of policies.
What are the policy priorities?
In 2023, the "three arrows" to stabilize the property market at the first level will be launched at the same time to build a new model of real estate development. In July 2023, the Politburo meeting did not mention "housing for living, not speculation", and proposed to "adapt to the new situation of major changes in the supply and demand relationship of China's real estate market, and adjust and optimize real estate policies in a timely manner", emphasizing the support of ensuring housing delivery, maintaining the stability of market entities, preventing systemic risks, and reasonable housing demand. After August, many ministries and commissions responded quickly and intensively issued substantive easing policies, making the property market regulation and control enter an easing cycle.
At the local level, more than 300 cities have carried out more than 800 regulation and optimization. In the second half of 2023, local real estate regulation and control policies have significantly accelerated the pace of relaxation and increased adjustments, and second-, third- and fourth-tier cities have generally broken through the "four restrictions" including purchase restrictions, loan restrictions, price restrictions, and sales restrictions; relaxation of provident fund policies; the implementation of tax exemption and housing subsidy policies; Implement the trade-in policy, and adjust the criteria for the recognition of ordinary residences. First- and second-tier cities will also launch targeted relaxation policies in the second half of 2023.
Specifically, with financial support, city-specific policies, urban renewal, and new housing reform as the main contents, it focuses on nine aspects: the purchase restriction policy for housing purchase qualifications has been continuously relaxed; Declining down payment ratios for home purchase leverage, including lower down payment ratios for first and second homes; Mortgage rates on the cost of home purchases have been declining, including lower interest rates on existing home loans; The sales restriction policy in the field of sales and circulation has been continuously loosened, and most low-energy cities have basically been cancelled; In terms of housing prices, the pre-sale** control has been loosened, and some cities have lifted the restriction on lowering the lower limit; In terms of transaction costs, the taxes and fees related to transactions have been decreasing; Provident fund policy, all localities continue to increase the provident fund policy to support the first home policy, and some cities have also increased the support for the second house; financial subsidies, some cities have increased the subsidy policy for house purchases; Some cities have introduced a "trade-in" first-hand and second-hand linkage policy for high inventory and bailout.
Take the optimization and adjustment of policies at the financial level as an example. In addition to continuing to implement the "16 Financial Measures" policy and promoting financial institutions to use the "Three Arrows" financing tools to equally support the reasonable financing needs of real estate enterprises of all types of ownership, the Ministry of Housing and Urban-Rural Development has also built a new real estate market model of "dual-track system" for affordable housing and commercial housing.
Although the specific breakthrough measures introduced in 2023, such as "recognising the house but not the loan", reducing the loan interest rate and down payment ratio, etc., have begun to show results, their full impact is still in the process of deepening and expanding. As Song Hongwei said, policy optimization and adjustment based on the guidance of the financial system is the standard action of this year's regulation and control.
Policy easing continues to escalate
From December 21 to 22, 2023, the National Conference on Housing and Urban-Rural Construction was held in Beijing to systematically summarize the work in 2023, analyze the situation, clarify the key tasks in 2024, and promote the high-quality development of housing and urban-rural construction to a new level. The meeting pointed out that next year's work should adhere to the principle of seeking progress while maintaining stability, promoting stability with progress, establishing first and then breaking down, and focusing on 18 aspects of work in 4 major sectors.
* The ministry will continue to strengthen the policy release of financing for real estate enterprises, and make it clear that all financial institutions should thoroughly implement the deployment of the financial work conference, adhere to the "two unswerving", and meet the reasonable financing needs of real estate enterprises with different ownership systems without discrimination.
It is not difficult to understand that the easing of real estate policy continued to be fully upgraded in December 2023. On December 14, in order to better meet the needs of residents for rigid and improved housing and promote the stable and healthy development of the real estate market, Beijing and Shanghai successively optimized real estate policies, including reducing down payments, reducing interest rates, and optimizing the identification standards for ordinary houses, which greatly reduced the threshold for residents to buy homes and the cost of buying houses.
Analysts pointed out that a series of policies such as reducing the down payment ratio in first-tier cities will help speed up the bottoming process of the property market in first-tier cities, and the policies have been effective in the short term. More importantly, the confidence of buyers in first-tier cities is constantly recovering, especially those who are looking at houses, which has significantly accelerated the pace of entering the market.
Tongce Research Institute predicts that in 2024, the effective sales scale of residential buildings in the country will be about 800 million square meters, and with data such as work-to-housing, it may reach about 900 million square meters.
In addition, judging from the current pace of REITs, there will be more supportive policies in the future, including policy guidance and the transformation direction of enterprises, but the overall scale is still small.
Zhang Dawei, chief analyst of Centaline Real Estate, believes that resolving project delivery risks is still one of the policy focuses in 2024, and it is expected that the supporting funds and policies of "guaranteed delivery of buildings" are expected to be further implemented to restore market expectations. Increase the adjustment of the regulatory policy of pre-sale funds, strengthen the supervision of pre-sale funds, reform the pre-sale system or important supporting measures of "guaranteed delivery of buildings".
It is worth mentioning that the Ministry of Housing and Urban-Rural Development has previously made it clear that "existing house sales can be carried out if conditions permit", and in 2023, there will be pilot sales of existing houses in many places, and Hefei and Zhengzhou have also proposed to carry out pilot projects in some areas.
Zhang Dawei pointed out that the future trend of the real estate market still depends on the policy, with the introduction of various policies to stabilize the property market in December, the market is expected to reproduce a certain range of market in early 2024.
Song Hongwei held a similar view. He believes that the policy environment will be further relaxed in 2024.
1. The first-tier city policy will be the vane and focus of the policy in 2024, and the property market environment in the first-tier cities will be further optimized in the context of city-specific policies, and the purchase threshold and purchase cost are expected to be further reduced;
Clause. Second, the bail-out of real estate enterprises and the delivery of buildings are still the focus of financial policies, it is expected that the short-term debt pressure of real estate enterprises will be eased, and the financing channels of some real estate enterprises will be gradually opened, but more concentrated on the extension of existing debts, which has won short-term room for real estate enterprises;
Clause. 3. Affordable housing is a hot spot in China's property market in 2024, with the gradual implementation of Document No. 14, the affordable housing system for urban low-income and new talents will be further improved, and it is expected that there will be a more friendly, cost-effective, and more livable affordable housing system.
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Editor: Li Yutong, Intern: Zhao Fengling.
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