To tell the truth, running a business and managing an enterprise, as a management, is nothing more than to grasp the four words "open source and reduce expenditure", open source is to think of ways from the income side, and throttling is to think of ways from the cost side. It's the same with investment, to study a business, you need to study both the income of the business and the cost of the business.
1. Review of the previous situation
In the article "Cialis Sales and Revenue in the First Quarter of 2024**", I based on public information, **In the first quarter of 2024, the sales volume of Cialis Wenjie series models was 1220,000 units, and the sales volume of the Blue Electric series models was 1660,000 units, the sales volume of the Fengguang series models was 0870,000 units, a total of 14730,000 units.
Based on the sales volume data and the average sales price of bicycles, it is estimated that in the first quarter of 2024, the quarterly operating income of Cialis is expected to be between 36 billion yuan and 40 billion yuan (the median value is 38 billion yuan).
Second, the cost analysis of Cialis
Many people want me to make a reasonable ** for the net profit of Cialis in the first quarter of 2024, but I have been dragging it out, in the final analysis, because the net profit is more difficult, and the time to calm down and study is also very limited, and I dare not rush into this "core project" of net profit.
This Spring Festival holiday finally has leisure, and I have time to take a closer look at Cialis's financial statements.
The above table shows the quarterly operating income, quarterly operating costs, and other costs other than operating costs (including business taxes, i.e., surcharges, sales expenses, management expenses, research expenses, financial expenses, etc.) from the first quarter of 2022 to the fourth quarter of 2023.
According to the data in the above table, the calculation formula of "gross profit margin = 1 - operating cost and operating income" can be substituted to find the quarterly gross profit margin of Cialis; Substituting the calculation formula of "expense ratio = other costs other than operating costs and operating income" can be used to find the quarterly expense ratio of Cialis.
The 2023 annual performance forecast of Cialis only discloses the operating income, net profit attributable to the parent company, and non-net profit, and theoretically cannot reverse the gross profit margin and expense ratio in the fourth quarter of 2023. However, this is not a big problem, there are always more ways than difficulties.
Previously, in the article "Analysis of Cialis's Financial Statements: Gross Profit Margin and the "Three Fees" Problem", I deduced the functional relationship between the quarterly gross profit margin and the quarterly operating income of Cialis, that is, "quarterly gross profit margin = 22."3%-9.36 Q Operating Income", therefore, will be the fourth quarter of 2023 operating income of 193With 200 million yuan substitution, it can be concluded that the gross profit margin of Cialis in the fourth quarter of 2023 is 175%。
As for the expense ratio in the fourth quarter, how to deduce?
We take the "deduction of non-net profit" in the "2023 annual performance forecast of Cialis" as a breakthrough to calculate the deduction of non-net profit margin (deduction of non-net profit operating income), and then calculate the difference between "gross profit margin - other rates", and compare the two, the difference between "deduction of non-net profit margin" and "(gross profit margin - other rates)" in the current year is basically on the same level, in 2022, it is roughly 26%；In 2023, it's roughly 58%。
In view of this, in the fourth quarter of 2023, the "(gross margin-other rates)" of Cialis will be about 15%; Based on the above, the gross profit margin of Cialis is expected to be approximately 175%, therefore, the other rate of Cialis in the fourth quarter of 2023 is about 325% (as shown below).
What's the point of redrawing this diagram? The significance lies in the fact that, excluding the special impact of the fourth quarter, the operating income in the third and fourth quarters of 2022 is not much different, but the other expense ratio is 46%, theoretically, if the operating income in the fourth quarter of 2023 (193200 million yuan) did not increase the operating income in the third quarter of 2023 (56.4.8 billion yuan), the other expense ratio in the fourth quarter of 2023 will theoretically reach 37The height of 7%, in other words, if it were not for the special impact of the fourth quarter, the other expense ratio in the fourth quarter of 2023 would theoretically be only 26About 2%.
Therefore, we can roughly deduce the functional relationship between the quarterly expense ratio and the quarterly operating income in 2023, that is, "quarterly other expense ratio = 23."4%＋5.Q46 Operating Income".
As can be seen from the chart above, the "other expense ratio" in 2023 has increased significantly by 6 compared to 20223%, it is expected that after everything is straightened out, the expense ratio will return to normal value. We can roughly deduce the functional relationship between the other expense ratio and the quarterly operating income in a normal year, that is, "quarterly other expense ratio = 17."1%＋5.Q46 Operating Income".
Considering that Cialis is in the process of normalizing expenses in 2024, we can roughly deduce the functional relationship between the other expense ratio and the quarterly operating income in 2024, that is, "quarterly other expense ratio = x% 5."46 Q Operating Income" (171≤x≤23.4）。
3. Non-net profit deducted in the first quarter of 2024**
(1) Optimistic estimates
In the first quarter of 2024, quarterly operating income is expected to be 38 billion yuan. Substituting 38 billion yuan into "quarterly gross profit margin = 22."3%-9.Q36 operating income", gross margin is expected to be 198%。Substituting 38 billion yuan into the "quarterly other expense ratio = 17."1%＋5.Q46 operating income", and the other expense ratio is expected to be 185%。As a result, the value of "gross margin-expense ratio" for the first quarter of 2024 is expected to be 13%, according to the financial data for 2022, the "non-net profit margin" is 2 percent higher than the "gross profit margin - other expense ratio".6%, therefore, the "net profit margin after deduction" for the first quarter of 2024 is expected to be about 39% or so.
It is expected that the non-net profit of Cialis in the first quarter of 2024 will be 148.2 billion yuan.
(2) Pessimistic estimates
In the first quarter of 2024, quarterly operating income is expected to be 38 billion yuan. Substituting 38 billion yuan into "quarterly gross profit margin = 22."3%-9.Q36 operating income", gross margin is expected to be 198%。Substituting 38 billion yuan into the "quarterly other expense ratio = 23."4%＋5.Q46 operating income", and the other expense ratio is expected to be 248%。As a result, the value of "Gross Margin - Other Expense Ratio" for the first quarter of 2024 is expected to be -5%, and based on the financial data for 2023, the "Non-net profit margin before Gross Margin" is 58%, therefore, the "net profit margin after deduction" for the first quarter of 2024 is expected to be around 0Around 8%.
It is expected that the non-net profit of Cialis in the first quarter of 2024 will be 30.4 billion yuan.
Therefore, the non-net profit of Cialis in the first quarter of 2024 is expected to be 304 to 14$8.2 billion (median 8.).9.3 billion yuan).
In the first quarter of 2024, Cialis is expected to turn losses into profits.