Internally, Celis has set an annual sales plan of 600,000 units for the Wenjie series, of which the sales target is 200,000 units for the M9 model (150,000 units are expected), the sales target for the M7 model is 300,000 units, and the sales target for the M5 model is 200,000 units (150,000 units expected). Considering that the launch date of the M8 model is yet to be determined, the tentative annual sales target is 0.
1. Annual revenue expectations
The sales volume of each model is multiplied by the average price, and then added up to get the sales, which is then multiplied by 0The conversion factor of 9 is calculated to calculate the operating income of Cialis in 2024.
(1) Questioning the boundary
1) Question M7. The pricing range is 24980,000 to 32980,000 yuan (median 28.)980,000 yuan), assuming that the average sales price of the M7 is 28980,000 yuan, with a total sales volume of about 300,000 units in 2024. Thus, in 2024, the sales volume of the M7 will be 869400 million yuan.
2) Wenjie (new) M5. The M5 is about to be facelifted, and it is expected that the pricing range of the M5 will be 2098 to 28180,000 yuan (median 24.)580,000 yuan), assuming that the average sales price of the (new) M5 is 24580,000 yuan, with a total sales volume of about 150,000 units in 2024. Thus, in 2024, the sales of the (new) M5 will be 368700 million yuan.
3) Question M9. The pricing range is 4698 to 56980,000 yuan (median 51.)980,000 yuan), assuming that the average sales price of M9 is 51980,000 yuan, with a total sales volume of about 150,000 units in 2024. Thus, in 2024, the sales volume of the M9 will be 779700 million yuan.
To sum up, the total sales of the Wenjie series in 2024 will be 201.8 billion yuan.
(2) Blue electricity
Landian only has one car, Landian E5, and the original guide price range is 1399 to 15390,000 yuan (median 14.)690,000 yuan), the current market price is reduced by about 40,000 yuan on the basis of the guide price, assuming that the average sales price of the M5 is 10690,000 yuan, the sales volume of the Blue Electric E5 model in January 2024 is 5,025 units, assuming that the total sales volume of the Blue Electric E5 in 2024 is about 60,000 units (conservative calculation, directly multiply the January sales volume of 5,025 by 12). Therefore, in 2024, the sales of Landian E5 will be 6.4 billion yuan.
(3) Scenery
In 2023, the total sales of the scenery series will be about 2 billion yuan. It is assumed that the sales of the scenery series in 2024 will not be much different from that in 2023, about 2 billion yuan.
To sum up, in 2024, the total sales of Cialis Wenjie, Blue Electric, and Fengguang will be 210.2 billion yuan, multiplied by 09. It is estimated that the operating income of Cialis in 2024 will be 189.2 billion yuan. Then, according to the upper and lower range of 5%, it is expected that the operating income of Cialis in 2024 will be between 180 billion yuan and 200 billion yuan (note: the average operating income of Cialis is about 47.3 billion yuan per quarter).
Second, the annual deduction of non-(attributable to the parent) net profit expectations
According to the conclusion of the article ""Throwing Money to Buy Tomorrow", the calculation formula of the net profit margin of Cialis is as follows: net profit margin of non-attributable to the parent = gross profit margin - various rates + adjustment items.
(a).Gross margin.
According to the "What is the gross profit margin of Cialis M9? The gross profit margin of the M9 model is about 31% (the average quarterly revenue is about 175.).400 million yuan. The gross profit margin of other models is about 192% (the average quarterly revenue is about 30 billion yuan, substituting into "quarterly gross profit margin = 22.")3%-9.36 Q36 Operating Revenue", weighted calculation, the gross profit margin of Cialis in 2024 is approximately 2355%
As for the various expense ratios, there are two possibilities, you can refer to the financial data of 2022 or the financial data of 2023, so that there will be two estimates.
(1) Refer to the financial data of 2022
1) Gross margin: 2355%。
2) Various rate curve functions: quarterly other expense rate = 171%＋5.Q46 operating income.
3) Adjustment items: 26%。
Substituting the above three items into "deducting non-attributable net profit margin = gross profit margin - various rates + adjustment items", and substituting the quarterly average revenue of Cialis of 47.3 billion yuan, you can find that the net profit margin of Cialis in 2024 is 79%。
(2) Refer to the financial data of 2023
1) Gross margin: 2355%。
2) Various rate curve functions: quarterly other expense rate = 234%＋5.Q46 operating income.
3) Adjustment items: 58%。
Substituting the above three items into "deducting the net profit margin of non-attributable to the parent = gross profit margin - various rates + adjustment items", and substituting the average quarterly revenue of 47.3 billion yuan into the net profit margin of Cialis in 2024 can be found to be 48%。
Therefore, the net profit margin of Cialis in 2024 will be 48% to 7between 9%. The chart below lists the net profit margins of SAIC, BYD and Li Auto in the first three quarters of 2023.
Multiply the operating income of 189.2 billion yuan in 2024 by deducting the net profit margin of non-attributable to the parent company (4.8% to 79%), it can be found that the non-net profit deducted by Cialis in 2024 is about between 9 billion yuan and 15 billion yuan (the median value is 12 billion yuan).
3. Valuation
Although I have always said that at the moment when the sales volume and revenue of Cialis are growing by leaps and bounds but "not making money", the valuation should consider the "price-to-sales ratio"; However, after Cialis turns losses into profits, it can consider the "price-earnings ratio".
The P/E ratio can be considered with BYD's P/E ratio (18.).39) and Li Auto's P/E ratio (3993), i.e. 2916。The non-net profit deducted by Cialis in 2024 will be about 12 billion yuan, and the valuation of Cialis can be obtained by multiplying the two.
That's the charm of growth stocks!